диссертация (1169605), страница 31
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Intheir brief policy proposal published in mid-March 2017 and titled “Syria’sDecentralization Roadmap”, they pinpoint a constitutional technicality from 2011which is believed to provide the ‘solution’ for ‘legally’ enforcing the US desired“decentralization” blueprint onto Syria. Author Samer Araabi, a researcher onSyria, recalled that Damascus implemented what is known as Decree 107 in theearly days of the War on Syria in order to grant more administrative-politicalprivileges to local municipalities, and he believes that this set the precedent forinserting a more ambitious “decentralization” scheme into the country’s legalsystem during UNSC Resolution 2254’s mandated constitutional reform262.If successful, and provided that the Syrian people vote for it in a referendum– which is extremely unlikely – then Araabi’s scheme would make any large-scaleinternational deployment to Syria ‘redundant’.
Such plans were made for a postDaesh ‘peacekeeping’ mission, but they were also considered in parallel with261Dobbins J., Gordon P., Martini J. A Peace Plan For Syria III: Agreed Zones of Control, Decentralization, andInternationalAdministration. RANDCorporation.8Feb.2017.Web.28January2018.http://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE233.html.262Araabi S. Syria’s Decentralization Roadmap.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 23 Mar. 2017.Web. 28 January 2018. http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/68372.128changing Syria’s constitution through the exploitation of Decree 107 in order toenact a “federalized” system under the disguise of “decentralization” (and alsotaking advantage of the well-intended clauses contained in the Russian-written“draft constitution”). Either way, it’s unlikely that either of these plots will succeedin their original manifestations and will probably have to undergo several stages ofrevisionism before a serious attempt is made to enact them in practice, if at all.While the will of the Syrian people should undoubtedly be the finalarbitrator for the country’s post-conflict political-administrative formation, there’sno avoiding the inconvenient but realistic fact that Great Power influence plays apowerful role in deciding what will happen next.
Russia is in a position toreinforce the Syrian people and their government’s resistance against“decentralization”, “cultural autonomies”, and “federalization”, though at the sametime Moscow would like to use its anti-terrorist intervention in Syria as a way formore profound Great Power engagement elsewhere in the region and GreaterEurasia. However Russia needs to be very careful that its pandering to the Kurdsdoesn’t inadvertently embolden them to the point of unwittingly helping the USplans, the very same grand strategy which Moscow is desperately trying so hard toavoid.Russia has stated on numerous occasions that it is not in support of PresidentAssad personally, but it supports him in order to fight terrorism and uphold theconstitutional order of the country263.
This is a critical clarification because itcomplements what Moscow has previously said about how his fate can only bedetermined by the Syrian electorate, not any outside force 264. Russia has alsoinsisted that UNSC Res. 2254’s mandate for constitutional revisionism can only beundertaken by the Syrians themselves. Taking into consideration that Russia hassaid that both sides of the Syrian conflict must enter into “compromises”.263Lavrov to Sputnik: Assad Not Moscow's Ally Like Ankara is to Washington. Sputnik, 4 May 2016, Web. 27April 2018. sputniknews.com/politics/201605041039060941-assad-russia-ally-lavrov/.264Wintour P.
Putin brings Iran and Turkey together in bold Syria peace plan. The Guardian, 22 Nov. 2017, Web. 27April 2018. www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/22/iranian-and-turkish-leaders-arrive-in-russia-for-syria-talkswith-putin.129Presidents Putin and Trump met during the APEC Summit in Vietnam inNovember 2017, where they publicly released a joint statement and probablydiscussed many more details in private 265. The most controversial known outcomeof that declaration was that both sides said that all foreign forces would have toeventually leave Syria, which was ambiguous enough to make some commentatorsworry at the time that Russia had “sold out” the Iranian Revolutionary GuardCorps and Hezbollah. Such fears were unfounded, however, since Moscow laterclarified that both actors were legally in the country at the invitation of the hostgovernment266, and that it’s actually the US forces that are illegal and need toleave, though President Trump curiously didn’t seem to interpret it that way whenhe agreed to the declaration.In any case, it’s possible that this specific clause was deliberately leftambiguous by both sides as a form of psychological warfare against the other’sdecision makers, knowing that each would interpret it differently but neverthelessfiguring that it’s better for them to have some positive outcome.
That said, andrecalling Russia’s envisioned “balancing” strategy in the Mideast, it’s indeed verypossible that Moscow might gently press Damascus sometime in the future toensure that the IRGC and Hezbollah don’t deploy so close to the occupied GolanHeights that it would “provoke” Israel to strike them and endanger the entire peaceprocess. In addition, there seem to be no realistic chances that Moscow will resortto brinksmanship with Washington over the Syrian Kurds and their illegally hostedUS bases in the northeastern part of the country, which is probably why PresidentPutin is attempting to broker a series of “multilaterally acceptable” “compromises”on this issue.It is also necessary to mention the “energy factor” 267.
Syria agreed in spring2016 to allow Russia to rebuild its oil and gas industries after the war, but most of265Joint Statement by the President of the United States and the President of the Russian Federation. US DepartmentOf State, 11 Nov. 2017, Web. 27 April 2018. www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/11/275459.htm.266Iran only fights terrorism in Syria: Russia envoy to Israel. Press TV, 21 Nov. 2017, Web. 27 April 2018.www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/11/21/542926/Israel-Syria-Iran-Russia-Alexander-Shein.267Syria asks Russia to rebuild its oil industry. Press TV, 20 May 2016, Web. 27 April 2018.www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/05/20/466598/Syria-asks-Russia-to-rebuild-its-oil-industry.130its energy resources are in Kurdish-occupied territory.
Syria desperately needssome of this revenue in order to rebuild the entire country at large, but with Russiaalso having a stake in these assets and the overall goal of strengthening thecountry’s post-war economy, it’s conceivable that Moscow could try to mediate arevenue-sharing arrangement between Damascus and the Kurds, with Russiareceiving a portion of the profits as well.This employment of “energy diplomacy” could at the very least help to easetensions for the time being and prevent any outbreak of hostilities between the twocamps (the United Stated and their Kurdish allies on one hand, Russia and theSyrian government on the other) across their de-facto line of control along theEuphrates River, a state of affairs which will probably be implicitly enforced byRussia and the US per a “gentleman’s agreement” to keep their respective allies atbay.
One of the controversial problems is the post-war status of the Americantroops in northeastern Syria and their 10 bases in the region, which Damascuswould never accept as “legitimate” because their presence is an illegal occupationof Syrian territory which it perceives as being a huge humiliation for thegovernment and the Syrian people. Thus, since there are scant chances that Russiawill militarily work to dislodge the Pentagon’s presence nor is it likely to back theSAA’s efforts to do so either, the only solution is for Moscow and Damascus towork together and push the United States to withdraw their troops from the regionalong with trying to convince the Kurdish factions in northeastern Syria that theAmericans are not reliable allies and that they are using the Kurdish problem as atool to establish their “blood borders”.Russia does not want to irresponsibly enter into nuclear brinksmanship withthe US over its 10 bases and estimated 2000 troops in northeastern Syria.
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