диссертация (1169605), страница 34
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While the regional situation continued to change, the enduring fact whichremained consistent was always that Syria’s location endows it and any countrythat it’s partnered with (USSR, Russia) or controlled by (as the US, Turkey, andthe Gulf States wanted) with a powerful position to influence Mideast affairs byvirtue of its position. Whether it’s to stabilize the region like Russia wants, orcatalyze its dissolution and subsequent geopolitical re-engineering like the USaspires, the unchanging fact is that the future of the Mideast disproportionatelyrests on the future of Syria itself.9/11 led to the US “Global War on Terror”, which failed in its official aimsand was exploited to launch the 2003 War on Iraq and subsequent occupationwhich lasted until 2011, all with the intent of constructing a “New Greater Middle140East” through the geopolitical re-engineering of “Blood Borders”. The period oftime between 9/11 and the “Arab Spring” saw the US perfect its forthcomingplanned Color Revolution destabilization against Syria and a broad range of otherMideast states.The “Arab Spring” Color Revolution was the initial stage of the US HybridWar on Syria, which ultimately morphed into its next phase of UnconventionalWarfare through terrorism.
Every event since 2011 can be understood as a differentdevelopment in the same Hybrid War, one which first had its goal as regimechange but then adapted its objective following the Russian anti-terroristintervention to seek the internal partition of the Arab Republic through“federalization” or some other form of broad “decentralization”. The researchtherefore addressed the failed Color Revolution, its transition into anUnconventional War, the US “Lead from Behind” stratagem of assembling aregional anti-Syrian coalition, the 2013 chemical weapons false flag attack, the riseof Daesh, the US and its allies’ “anti-terrorist” bombing campaign, Russia’s antiterrorist intervention, Turkey’s “Operation Euphrates Shield”, the Astana trilateralframework, and the US first-ever direct cruise missile strike on the Syrian ArabArmy.The prevailing theme is that the externally provoked Hybrid War on Syrialasted a lot longer than the US expected, and that the prolonged conflict eventuallybecame a dangerous and high-stakes proxy war between the US and Russia, bothof which have been pursuing contradictory objectives though with the potential forreaching some kind of compromise solution in the future.
Russia’s direct militaryinvolvement in Syria fundamentally destroyed – or at the very least, greatlydelayed – the US original plans for the Mideast, though Moscow wants toindefinitely sustain all of its geopolitical gains but the most probable scenario isthat it enters into some sort of deal with Washington. Nevertheless, Russia did infact make tremendous progress in stabilizing the situation following thegroundbreaking trilateral framework that Moscow successfully launched in late2016 between itself, Iran, and Turkey that allowed it to aid the Syrian Arab Army141in multilaterally defeating Daesh and other terrorist groups.
Concurrent with all ofthis, the dual trends of rising Kurdish nationalism and progress on spearheading a“decentralized” political solution to the war heavily impacted on developments inSyria across the last two years of the study.The War on Syria can thus be seen in hindsight as a decisive event in globalhistory since it stretched across the transition from the fading unipolar world orderto the rising multipolar one, manifested respectively by the US failure to achieveits original far-reaching objective of deepening its control over the Middle Eastthrough geopolitical re-engineering, and also by Russia’s success in stopping (or atthe very least, slowing down) this project to the extent that some semblance ofrelative order returned to the region following the US-unleashed Hybrid Warchaos.Considering that the US tested and appears comfortable with wielding a newform of warfare (Hybrid War, the phased transition of failed Color Revolutions toUnconventional Wars, or in other words, from the “Arab Spring” to Daesh), it’s ofthe highest importance that Russians study the case of Syria in order to more fullyunderstand the US’ new techniques so that they can effectively forecast andrespond to them in the future if they’re ever unleashed against its interests.The ultimate use of the dissertation will derive from the fact that Russia canreference this academic resource in better understanding the complicated factorswhich combined to create the US regionally transformative power play of the“Arab Spring” theater-wide Color Revolutions, which in turn inadvertentlyprovided the eventual context for Russia’s pivotal anti-terrorist intervention inSyria in the disastrous aftermath of this so-called “democratic revolution”.142BIBLIOGRAPHYI.Sources1.Al-Assad B.
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