диссертация (1169605), страница 32
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It meansthat the Arab-Kurdish issue in Syria might remain a “frozen conflict” kept undercontrol by the speculated “gentleman’s agreement” between Presidents Putin andTrump, though with Russia actively brokering some degree of a “political131solution” in order to temporarily calm on-the-ground tensions between all sides268.Turkey might not like this because of its well-grounded fear that the SyrianKurdish PYD-YPG are really just offshoots of what they consider to be theterrorist PKK, but there’s little that President Erdogan can do aside fromunilaterally invading northeastern Syria and dealing self-inflicted damage to theRussian-Turkish Strategic Partnership, to say nothing of risking a more dramaticfalling out with his nominal US and NATO “allies”.Russia and Turkey are actively cooperating on a wide variety of ventures,one of the most significant of which is the Turkish/Balkan Stream throughSoutheastern Europe and beyond, so it is very unlikely that President Erdoganjeopardize his close personal relations with his Russian counterpart, especiallybearing in mind an unprecedented deal for Moscow to sell Ankara its state-of-theart S-400 anti-air missiles 269.
Iran figures into all of this, wisely staying on thesidelines and remaining silent for the time being, prudently watching how eventsdevelop and doing nothing that could even be remotely perceived as interferingwith this complicated political process, though consistently abiding by itsprinciples in reiterating its support for Damascus and the international legalmechanisms guiding the “political solution” in the country. In any case, Iran wouldstill be compelled to act in whatever manner it sees fit if its military interests vis-àvis the IRGC and Hezbollah are endangered in any way that goes againstDamascus’ sovereign preferences, such as if external pressure was put on Syria toseek their removal, up to and including more Israeli airstrikes against theirpositions.The Trump administration made controversial statements about policytowards Syria.
President Trump said that the United States spent 7 tn dollars for itsactions in the Middle East since 2001 when it started military operation inAfghanistan. He said that American policy there was very successful, that ISIS was268Ali I. Pentagon likely to acknowledge 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria: U.S. officials. Reuters, 24 Nov. 2017, Web. 27April 2018. www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-syria-military/pentagon-likely-to-acknowledge-2000-u-s-troops-insyria-u-s-officials-idUSKBN1DO2II.269Purchase of Russian S-400 system creates issues for Turkey’s use of F-35 – top US Air Force official.
RT, 18Nov. 2017, Web. 27 April 2018. www.rt.com/news/410197-turkey-s400-nato-f35/.132almost defeated, and it was time to come back home. In April 2018 the WhiteHouse press secretary S. Sanders confirmed that the military operation was comingto an end but the United States and its partners will remain committed toeliminating the small ISIS presence in Syria, and the US will continue to consultwith its allies and friends regarding future plans, and to work toward peace andensure that ISIS never re-emerges270.These statements contradicted the previous one on Syria made by the StateSecretary R.
Tillerson who declared in January 2018: “The US intends to maintainan open-ended military presence in Syria not only to fight Isis and al-Qaida butalso to provide a bulwark against Iranian influence, ensure the departure of theSyrian government and create conditions for the return of refugees” 271.It meant that there was no consensus on this issue, and republicans tried tofind the most suitable variant of acting in Syria. The dilemma was how to remainin the domineering position in the region while spending less money and to haveminimal involvement in military actions. Finally those who did not want “to leaveSyria to Russia” and were thinking in the paradigm of great power competition andkeeping strong American presence in the region prevailed 272.As the previous analysis showed American strategy in Syria was aimed atthe fragmentation of the country.
As the official representative of the ForeignMinistry of Russia M. Zakharova stated, this aim explains American behavior inSyria and in the Middle East in general. The United States, as it was mentionedabove, wanted to keep the central position in the region, weaken other big players,get full control of natural resources, and to have this country as a strategic place forthe American military presence (military bases). Additional concern was Russia’ssuccessful operation of fighting terrorism in Syria and its support of the legal270White House clarification only adds to confusion over Syria withdrawal. White House says fight against Isis is‘coming to rapid end’, but US still committed to Syria presence, despite Trump insistence on withdrawal / Web.
27April 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/04/syria-isis-latest-trump-white-house-remove-troops271US military to maintain open-ended presence in Syria, Tillerson says. US secretary of state says forces willremain in country in push against Isis, Bashar al-Assad and Iranian influence /Web. 27 April 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/17/us-military-syria-isis-iran-assad-tillerson272Сучков М.
Политическое отступление: что мешает США вывести войска из Сирии. Web. 27 April 2018.https://www.rbc.ru/opinions/politics/06/04/2018/5ac75e949a794719ebf0c007?from=center_10.133Syrian government and the Syrian Army who were fighting against ISIS andterrorists273.As it was mentioned above there are controversial points in the opinions ofRussian specialists on the future of Syria, however officially Russia persistentlysupports the right of the Syrian people for the choice of their future.A well-known expert from the Institute of Oriental Studies V. Sotnikov,characterizing the situation in Syria and American actions there said the following:“The situation in Syria shows that we might finish with “federalization” of thecountry. It will mean that separate groups, opposition groups, government forces,ISIS will control different parts of the country.
… Finally it will mean the end ofSyria as a unified state”. He added that Russia does not fully support Americanplan and does not want the dismantlement of the country274.There are pro-federalization views among Russian scholars who considerfederalization as the only possible way to end the war. They point out that Kurdsare well aware that they cannot have full independence within Syria, and there isno way for establishing an independent Kurdistan uniting all Kurds who live indifferent countries.
They are ready to accept broad autonomy in the federal Syria.Syrian Kurds who constitute 12-15% of the population have been fighting for theirautonomy, and with the support of the United States succeeded in extending itsmilitary and political control of the territories in Syria by 1,5. Syrian Kurds werefighting together with the American forces in Raqqa and in other places againstISIS groups, and as a result of successful operations Kurds managed to establish inthe northern part of Syria quasi-federation governed by separate Kurdish groups,the biggest among them “Syrian Democratic Forces”.Some Russian scholars say that the Syrian government cannot ignore thisfact, and suggest to use model of asymmetric federation used in Iraq where threeprovinces with Kurds got broader autonomy than other 15 provinces with theИльин С.
Тайные планы США в Сирии: российский МИД вывел Вашингтон на чистую воду. Web. 27April 2018. https://ria.ru/accents/20180127/1513383273.html.274ЭкспертыоцениливозможныепоследствияновойстратегииСШАвСирии//https://ria.ru/syria/20170707/1498019789.html.273134Arabic population.
Supporters of this kind of settlement think that though such amodel may seem unacceptable, further escalation of the conflict and furtherrejection of the federalization plan can cause further consolidation of independentstatus of territories with Kurds when it would be even harder to reach anycompromise275.Russian scholar D. Okrest mentions that at the beginning KurdistanWorkers’ Party (KWP) proclaimed as its primary goal to build Socialism and anation-state. Later the Party gave up the idea of absolute independence and agreedto become part of the “Syrian Federation” (without the word “Arabic”).
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