диссертация (1169605), страница 27
Текст из файла (страница 27)
In fact, the most impactfuldevelopments in the War on Syria since it began can be said to have been theRussian anti-terrorist military intervention and Moscow’s diplomatic successes atarranging the Astana Tripartite-brokered peace process between itself, Iran, andTurkey. While admittedly an imperfect format which still leaves a lot to be desired,it did indeed succeed thus far in establishing a workable ceasefire monitoringmechanism and in mitigating overall internal tensions within Syria.We can see that Russia and the United States remain the most importantplayers though participation of important regional powers will also be of greatimportance. Much will depend on the American actions who chair the coalition of60 countries.
Will plans and ambitions of various participants meet? It ispractically impossible to give a clear answer, especially taking into accountchanging attitudes of the Trump administration which approved arms transfers toSyrian Kurds fighting against Daesh in the North of Syria. American actions inSyria against the government forces and IGIL often contradict Russian actions, andthere is not good coordination. One of the obstacles to agreement is the fate of theSyrian government whose dismissal is supported by Turkey and the UnitedStates238.Some Russian scholars consider cooperation with the United States a keyfactor for the settlement.
D. Trenin, for instance, thinks that it’s impossible forMoscow to bring peace to Syria without some kind of agreement with Washingtonfirst. In response to Trump’s unprecedented missile strike against the Syrian Arab2016. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
20 Dec. 2016. Web. 27 January 2018.http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2573489.238Сирийский конфликт: чего хотят США, Россия, Турция и Иран? // https://www.dw.com/ru/сирийскийконфликт-чего-хотят-сша-россия-турция-и-иран/a-41224728110Army, the Russian expert wrote that though the risk of a confrontation increased,but, “paradoxically, greater American involvement in Syria may also bring aboutcloser US-Russian co-operation there, leading eventually to a political settlementand an end to the bloody six-year civil war”. He suggested that this hyperaggressive action was actually ‘good’ for Russian and Syrian interests, and “MrTrump’s intervention could strengthen Moscow’s hand with respect to the Syrianleader Bashar al-Assad and to Iran and its client Hizbollah, both of whom haveused the regime’s takeover of Aleppo to press for a complete victory, underminingRussian negotiation efforts”239.Another scholar Y.
Barmin has a similar understanding of RussianAmerican relations stating that “a military-oriented strategy, much in tradition withthe old Republican rhetoric, will become more definite” under the new President’stenure, and that “this may have become a necessary reality check for Moscowgiven the fact that the Obama Administration was never prepared to send strongsignals like this”. According to his perspective, “Donald Trump has no intention towork towards maintaining the status quo that his predecessor carefully negotiated”,and that while he’s “not averse to the idea of the stabilization of the MiddleEast…he is not a politician who will demand democratization and civil societyengagement from his partners in the region” 240.
One could almost proverbially saythat the Trump administration was going to counter Russia’s diplomatic advancesthrough the Astana peace process.Hope remains that Russia and the United States will manage to come tosome kind of agreement that will allow to better coordinate their actions andefforts241. The Sochi Summit was very successful in that it laid the basis forseriously pursing UNSC Res. 2254’s mandated “political solution” to the War onSyria via constitutional “reform” and new elections, but it also proved that the239Trenin D.
Russia Needs American Help to Seal the Deal in Syria. Carnegie Moscow Center, 10 Apr. 2017, Web.27 April 2018. carnegie.ru/2017/04/10/russia-needs-american-help-to-seal-deal-in-syria-pub-68632.240Barmin Y. How Obama’s Legacy in the Middle East is Shaping Trump’s Policy. Russian International AffairsCouncil, 10 May 2017, Web.
27 April 2018. russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/how-obama-slegacy-in-the-middle-east-is-shaping-trump-s-policy/.241Joint Statement by the President of the United States and the President of the Russian Federation. US Departmentof State, 11 Nov. 2017, Web. 27 April 2018.
www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/11/275459.htm.111conflict is now shifting from the battlefield to the boardroom as political intriguetakes precedence over military tactics following the defeat of Daesh. All threecountries – Russia, Iran, and Turkey – are dedicated to seeing a solution finallyprevail in Syria, and while none of them wants to “compromise” on their coreinterests in the country, it seems inevitable that they might collectively have to doso alongside Damascus and the “rebels” in order to bring an end to this war.For example, none of the three states wants the US to remain in northeasternSyria, but the options for removing the Pentagon’s presence are presentlyunrealistic given the possibly apocalyptic conditions that this might entail.Similarly, Turkey doesn’t want to see the Kurds receive “decentralization”, but itshands are proverbially tied in dealing with this.
Furthermore, Iran would ideallylike to deploy its forces anywhere in Syria with the consent of Damascus, but thenational authorities might recommend (per Russia’s “suggestion”) that they stayaway from the occupied Golan Heights so as to not “provoke” Israel andunwittingly trigger a larger and more conventional conflict between the threeparties. Finally, Russia could actually gain by “balancing” all sides in accordancewith its envisioned 21st-century geostrategy, but this is extremely difficult to do“perfectly” and it might accidentally end up undermining some of the regional trustthat it’s worked so hard to build up over the past couple of years despite itspositive intentions in preserving stability and facilitating the emerging multipolarworld order.In November 2017 Sochi Summit between the Presidents of Russia, Iran,and Turkey took place.
The uncertain results of this gathering only highlighted thedifficulty that Moscow was facing in its Kurdish “balancing” act. While it wasformally a trilateral summit between the Russian, Iranian, and Turkish leaders,President Putin had earlier briefed his counterparts in the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia,and Egypt about the upcoming meeting242, suggesting that Moscow was veryserious about getting the support of all stakeholders behind its initiative.
Russia242Pinchuk D. Putin urges political solution in Syria, in calls to Trump, Mideast leaders. Reuters, 21 Nov. 2017,Web. 27 April 2018. reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-putin-trump/putin-urges-political-solution-in-syria-in-callsto-trump-mideast-leaders-idINKBN1DL2C2?il=0.112positioned itself as the supreme “balancing” force in the Eurasian supercontinent,to which end it has sought to strengthen its relations with all actors on thelandmass, including those with which it hasn’t traditionally been very close to suchas Saudi Arabia.Commenting on the event, V. Naumkin wrote that in the long run Russiawill be able to diversify its foreign policy in the Middle East: “With every newdevelopment in the region, the country gains experience and deepens its ties withall actors, including those who act in conflict zones.
Today, almost all countries inthe Middle East are interested in Russia’s involvement and view it as the mainpartner capable of influencing the situation in the region. We will hope that Syriawill manage to create consensus between the conflicting parties and secure aceasefire. … Russian multi-vector policy and close ties with key regional countrieswill certainly give it a greater stake and higher status in the Middle East 243.This is a risky strategy, albeit one that could potentially yield enormousgeopolitical dividends if properly executed. The leadership void left by theAmerican ‘retreat’ from the region has created an opening for Russia to fill, thoughMoscow will never truly replace Washington simply for the reason that it has analtogether different vision in mind.
Unlike the US disruptive divide-and-ruleHybrid Wars, Russia aspires to stabilize the region by assisting the states that havebeen victimized by America’s aggression, thus working for the diametricallyopposite ends that the US was and instead seeking to repair some of the damagethat Washington wrought. In order for this overall strategy and success ofPresident Putin’s peace proposal it is necessary to ensure that none of Syria’senemies will sabotage it 244.243Naumkin V.
What Awaits Syria? Russian International Affairs Council, 25 Sept. 2017, Web. 27 April 2018.russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/what-awaits-syria/.244Russian experts: the Middle East will never be the same. Valday Club , 19 June 2017, Web. 7 April 2018.valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/middle-east-will-never-be-the-same/; Enjeti, Saagar. Netanyahu Draws HisOwn Red Line In Syria. The Daily Caller, 17 Nov.
2017, Web. 27 April 2018.dailycaller.com/2017/11/27/netanyahu-draws-his-own-red-line-in-syria/1133.2. Federalization plan for Syria: American approachTo estimate certain results of great powers’ efforts to normalize the situationin Syria, comparing them to the national interests of Syria, it is necessary toanalyze the plans for Syria, which are described as being the “federalization” of thecountry in order to enact a de-facto internal partition. This strategy is an adaptedversion of Ralph Peters’ “Blood Borders”, though instead of de-jure “independent”statelets, the current manifestation deals with quasi-independent identity-focusedones within internationally recognized Syrian borders. It is the culmination of theearlier described three-part interlinked approach of using constructivist means(identity conflict) under the cover of neoliberal justifications (“democracy” and“human rights”) in order to achieve neorealist ends (geopolitical positioning in theheart of the Mideast).
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