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4 January 2018. russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/opredelenie-strategii-aviaudarovrossii-v-sirii/; Zvyagelskaya I. Syria: Challenging factors for Kofi Annan's peace mission. Valday Club , 6 Apr.2012,Web.4January2018.valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/syria_challenging_factors_for_kofi_annan_s_peace_mission/;NaumkinV.,Zvyagelskaya I., Kuznetsov V., Soukhov N. The Middle East: From Conflicts to Stability. Russia In Global Affairs.N.p., 14 Mar. 2016. Web.
8 January 2017. http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/valday/The-Middle-East-from-conflicts-tostability-18045231Ibidem.106region. As the authors observed, “pursuing the consolidation of government inparallel with civil society institutions and improving the efficiency ofadministration are becoming an urgent need for all countries of the region, and theonly opportunity for ensuring their security in the future” 232.
Such policy is seen asthe only real way to counteract the state fragmentation process, which the expertsalso warned could be disguised as “decentralization” and “federalization”. A yearlater the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs would write a “draft constitution” forSyria which suggests the enshrinement of “autonomy” and “decentralization” forthe Kurds.The authors advise that economic recovery and the formation of a broadanti-terrorist coalition are the most realistic methods for resisting the geopoliticalreengineering of the Middle East, though they state that nothing can be assuredgiven how dynamic and fragile the situation is. As is correctly stated, Russia’sconstructive efforts restoring stability to the Mideast are hampered by the GreatPower competition which is taking place in the region and the global games beingplayed by key countries, which have shifted the balance of forces and madeeverything all the more unpredictable.
V. Naumkin, I. Zvyagelskaya and V.Kuznetsov compare the situation in contemporary Middle East with the state ofaffairs in Europe near the end of the Thirty Years’ War. Although not explicitlystated, this is a direct allusion to the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia which set theconditions for the modern system of international relations, thereby inferring thatsomething as similarly revolutionary might be on the cusp of happening in theMideast too, if not the broader region.The greatest obstacle to any constructive progress in resolving the Mideast’sgeopolitical woes are the hybrid wars that have spread all throughout the region.The growth of terrorism is a natural outcome of such an anarchic environment, andthe formation of a new general security system is absolutely needed in order tosafeguard against the myriad international threats associated with hybrid wars.
It is232Naumkin V., Zvyagelskaya I., Kuznetsov V., Soukhov N. The Middle East: From Conflicts to Stability. Russia InGlobal Affairs. N.p., 14 Mar. 2016. Web. 8 January 2018. http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/valday/The-Middle-East-fromconflicts-to-stability-18045.107evident that Russia can take the lead in this process by helping regionalgovernments tackle the threat of terrorism and thereby prevent the redrawing of theMideast’s borders.
Once the region is geopolitically secure, then Russia can workwith its partners – both existing and newfound – in order to streamline a Helsinkilike security system for sustaining its hard-fought gains.Russian scholars A. Bezrukov, A. Sushentsov, M. Mamonov and S.Markedonov stress the importance of security in the case of Syria and the MiddleEast in general. They state that “from the Russian point of view, allowing ISIS togain control over Syria and Iraq would mean a new influx of well-trained terroristsin the North Caucasus and Central Asia in five years”. They mentioned thataccording to Russian data, out of 70 thousand ISIS militants up to 5 thousandeither are Russians or come from CIS countries. It means that when their returnback home will tremendously influence the already fragile situation in the RussianCaucasus and Central Asian republics 233.These evaluations of the situation in the Middle East and in Syria are ratherrealistic and show the perspective for further efforts and outcomes for Russia andthose who really are interested in the settlement.
V. Naumkin notes that defeatingDaesh which is playing a “key role” in the settlement of the Syrian situation. Headded that all other problems in Syria, be they the issue of Idlib, Raqqa, orwhatever else – potentially, it can also be inferred, even the Kurds – “should besolved through negotiations against the background of military successes”,importantly highlighting the interconnection between Russia’s military anddiplomatic policies in the formation of Moscow’s grand strategy towards Syria 234.This ‘double approach’ wisely allows Russia to maximize its strategic gains in thecountry with minimal expense because the instruments of its hard and soft powerBezrukov A., et al.
RUSSIA’S POSITION IN WORLD POLITICS IN 2016: FOREIGN STRATEGYCHALLENGESANDPROSPECTS. InternationalTrends,2016,Web.27April2018.intertrends.ru/system/Doc/ArticlePdf/1257/f2ZsyvQQLn.pdf.234Naumkin V. Diplomatic and military victories play key role in settling Syrian crisis. Russian International AffairsCouncil, 9 Jan. 2017, Web. 27 April 2018. russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/comments/diplomatic-andmilitary-victories-play-key-role-in-settling-/;Naumkin V. What Awaits Syria? Russian International Affairs Council, 25 Sept.
2017, Web. 27 April 2018.russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/what-awaits-syria/.233108are optimized by working in coordination with one another. Moreover, it allowsRussia to not be overly reliant on either of these two pillars of power but instead“balance” between them in flexibly adapting to challenges as they arise.It is also important to have the support of regional powers as I.Zvyagelskaya wrote in early 2016, nearly a year before Astana was evenconceptualized: “Regional powers could play a greater role in the resolution of theSyrian conflict”, and earlier talks between the US and Russia “will also largelydepend on how [they] would be able to build their relationships with these regionalpartners”235.
The US and Russia weren’t able to reach any pragmatic ‘compromise’with one another, hence why Moscow embarked on the creation of a parallel butcomplementary peace process to the one in Geneva by gathering the Muslim GreatPowers of Turkey and Iran together in the Astana format.Formation of the Great Power Tripartite between Russia, Iran, and Turkeywas of great importance though it was not a simple process 236.
Russia basicallyserved as the balancer and bridge in bringing Turkey and Iran together, animpressive feat which barely anyone could have thought would have been possiblegiven how Ankara and Tehran have been stridently supporting polar opposite sidesin the War on Syria. This achievement proved that Moscow could indeed functionas the extra-regional mediator which has the greatest chance at bringing peace tothe Mideast, and its Turkish and Iranian partners were also receptive of Russiataking on this enormous role. After months of backchannel politicking, all threesides’ Foreign Ministers convened in Moscow at the end of December 2016 toissue the Moscow Declaration237.
This reaffirmed the emerging Tripartite between235Zvyagelskaya I. US-Russia dialogue as a key factor of the fragile Syria talks. Valday Club , 28 Mar. 2016, Web.27 April 2018. valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/us-russia-dialogue-as-a-key-factor-of-the-fragile-syria-talks/.236Crooke A. Will Turkey truly pivot to Russia? What now for neo-ottomanism? Valday Club. 5 Aug. 2016.
Web.27 January 2018. http://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkey-truly-pivot-to-russia-neo-ottomanism/; Clawson P.Syrian Kurds As A U.S. Ally: Cooperation And Complications. The Washington Institute For Near East Policy.Nov.2016.Web.27January2018.http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyFocus150_Clawson.pdf; Turkey's Erdogan:'Confirmed evidence' US-led coalition supports ISIS & other terrorists in Syria. RT. 27 Dec. 2016.
Web. 27 January2018. https://www.rt.com/news/371965-erdogan-us-coalition-isis/237Joint Statement by the Foreign Ministers of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation and the Republicof Turkey on agreed steps to revitalize the political process to end the Syrian conflict, Moscow, 20 December109them and set the legal-political basis for the following month’s Astana peaceprocess.It can’t be overstated just how revolutionary of a move it was that Russia notonly brought Turkey and Iran together at the same table, let alone in the Russiancapital, but also convinced them to cooperate in a new parallel peace processalongside the existing though stalemated one in Geneva.
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