ДИПЛОМ ЧУМАЧЕНКО В.Р. (1235999), страница 13

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This stage includes two subs – steps:

– Fundamental research (development of the theoretical foundations of future innovations). It is carried out by the specialized institutions;

– Research of the applied character (for specific purposes, for specific industries). It is carried out the by specialized institutions and research departments of companies. Depending on the innovation complexity, the development is being made from several years to several decades.

Stage 2: manufacturing or executing the innovations.

Manufacturing: if the innovation is a means of labor, or the object of labor which must be used.

Executing: if it is the theoretical development for the particular process.

Stage 3: distribution and implementation of the innovation.

If the innovation is not developed for the enterprise and not blackout, it should be put into practice, i.e., released to the market.

Stage 4: exploitation of innovations

Exploitation may be different in duration. The innovation may not give the expected result and then it may not be long – term in exploitation, and sometimes it can be used for many years if it gives a positive effect.

1.3. Methods of assessing the effectiveness of investments and innovations in the railway transport

Discounting is a method of evaluating the investment projects by the future cash flows connected with implementation of the projects through their value in the current time.

The following methods of the discount rate justification are widely spread:

Weighted average capital cost (the method of the linked investments or the technique of the investment group) is the equated percent (E), which is paid for the use of capital. In the general form, it is defined by:

(1.1)

Wherein – percentage i – source of financing in the total structure of the used capital; – cost of using the capital from i – funding source.

Rate on safe investments with risk is the adjusted method (method of market analysis) is the rate of interest on safe investments that is adjusted for risk factors:

(1.2)

Wherein – rate on safe investments; – the risk – adjusted; – ratio taking into account the relationship between average market yield risk investments and profitability of a particular investment ; – the average rate on a risky investment.

The method of cumulative construction (summation method) is to justify the two main components of the discount rate: the rate of return of capital; profit rate of investment:

(1.3)

Wherein – the rate of return on capital; – the rate of return of investment.

The method of market release (extraction). In this method is analyzed the return on investment on the objects – analogues for the purpose of obtaining the reasonable information about the market behavior of quantitative and qualitative characteristics:

(1.4)

Wherein NI_а – the net income of the object – analog; С_а – the cost of object – analog.

The inflation accounting when assessing the investment project efficiency is of great importance.

The inflation accounting in the rate of discount is made by the formula:

(1.5)

Wherein r_inf – the value of the discount taking into account the level of inflation; J_inf – the rate of inflation, %.

Bringing cash flows to the initial moment of time is made by multiplying the cost of the t – period by a discount factor (F_d):

(1.6)

The simple methods (without discounting) of economic justification of the investment projects include: method of evaluating the payback period of the project; the level of profitability of the project; and evaluation method for the effectiveness factor of the project.

The payback period is determined by the ratios:

(1.7)

Wherein I – investments; NI – net income or profit obtained during the project implementation taking into account depreciation; – reduction of running costs of the company or its divisions as a result of investment activities.

The rate of return of the investment project (R) is calculated in percent based on these formulas:

(1.8)

The coefficient of economic effectiveness of the project (E_o) represents the annual rate of return effect (result) on the investment costs made (C):

(1.9)

The main indicators used to assess the effectiveness of investment projects are: net present value (NPV); internal rate of return (IRR); profitability index (PI); discounted payback period ( .

Net discounted value presents the difference between the given (discounted) cash income from the investment project and investment costs:

(1.10)

(1.11)

Wherein t – the current calculation step; Т_р – the estimated period; NI– net income (the benefit received in the course of investment project implementation); Df – the discount factor; I_t – the investments required for the implementation of the project.

Internal rate of return is the calculated discount rate at which the sum of discounted revenues over the entire period of the investment project is equal to the sum of the initial cost (investment):

(1.12)

Profitability index is the ratio of given money income to those given in the beginning of the realization of the investment project investment costs:

(1.13)

Discounted payback period includes such a number of years of investment project implementation during which the amount of net incomes discounted at the time of completion of the investment equals to the investment amount:

(1.14)

The comparative value of the integral effect characterizes the additional value of the integral effect obtained from implementation of the project in comparison with others. The comparative value of the integral effect ( is determined by the formula:

(1.15)

Wherein – additional results of the compared variants for implementing the investments; С – the difference of current expenditures of the compared variants for implementing the investments; – additional investment costs of the compared variants for implementing the investments.

The payback period of additional investments represents the time period for which the additional investment costs for the more capital–intensive variant are compensated due to the increase in economic outcomes:

(1.16)

Wherein E_ft – the growth of economic effect from implementation of the more capital–intensive variants; I – additional investments for implementation of the more capital – intensive variants.

If the investments for the compared variants are single – staged and there is no need in discounting cash flows (for example, a short calculation period), the payback period of additional investments is determined by the formula:

(1.17)

Wherein ICI₁, ICI₂ – investments for the implementation of respectively fewer capital – intensive and more capital – intensive options; EСI₁, EСI₂ – operating costs related to the implementation of respectively fewer capital – intensive and more capital – intensive options.

The given costs are considered a special case of the comparative effect of integrated and they are defined:

(1.18)

Wherein С – ongoing costs arising in the course of the project; К – investment costs required for the project.

In the case of single – stage investment (I_о), a constant value of current expenditures and the absence of any necessity to discount the cash flows you can convert this dependence and to determine the annual adjusted cost:

(1.19)

Wherein Е_н – the standard of efficiency of using the capital investments.

Coefficient of comparative efficiency of investments shows the effect of increases in the annual economic result when raising the investments per unit:

(1.20)

The use of overall efficiency indicators when assessing the efficiency of the investments allows justifying the choice of the most effective projects and the comparative effectiveness indicators of the most – effective options for the project implementation of several alternatives.

When evaluating the effectiveness of innovations that are acceptable for the railway industry, the following quantitative and qualitative indicators are used:

– The volume of investments for organizing the production and implementing the innovations based on the extent of the innovative project execution;

– Net income from the operations that is dependent on the internal and external factors.

The main objective of the evaluation method of the innovation efficiency consists in calculating the criterion of innovation, i.e., the economic indicators (groups of indicators), the value of which allows you to make a decision about the attractiveness of this innovation for railway transport and if necessary, to compare the alternative options for innovation.

In the evaluation system of innovation, it is necessary to distinguish the three groups of indicators:

1. Overall (generalized) performance;

2. Private generalizing indicators;

3. Risk assessment indicators.

Currently, it is proposed to make the assessment of the innovative process efficiency on the railway transport based on the two approaches:

1. The systems of indicators that reveal the economic essence of the innovation process;

2. The integral index, i.e., selection from the existing economic indicators of the measuring instrument which characterizes the essence of the process under study.

The efficiency evaluation methods are divided into two groups:

1. Methods based on discounted estimates;

2. Methods based on accounting estimates.

The first group of methods includes the method of profitability index, net present value, and internal rate of return. The second group of methods includes payback period, rate of return, and debt service coverage ratio.

Assessment of the innovative process efficiency in relation to the railway transport along with the existing synthetic and integral indicators that are calculated as the geometric average of the values are determined on the following formula:

(1.21)

Wherein C_ip – integral coefficient of innovation potential; R_sp – ratio of the scientific potential; R_pp – ratio of personnel potential; R_оr – the ratio of its own resources; P_ei – specific weight in the total cost of equipment (testing equipment); P_sr – the proportion of the scientific research value in the total investment cost.

The starting point of developing the innovative strategy is the estimation of the innovative activity based on the economic indicators. This assessment allows you to analyze the current experience and capacity of the railway complex development in the innovative sphere, and also to make a right choice of its further technological development.

The full assessment of the innovation process effectiveness is impossible without the assessment of their innovative activity. To calculate the integral indicator of innovation activity, the following indicators are used:

Характеристики

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