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Significant violations of the status quo led to military conflicts195. In theopinion of the expert community, today this alignment of forces has changed, and it isessential to include in any new arrangement, at least in the short term, extra-systemelements in the form of armed formations (formed on clan, ethnic, religious, tribalbasis) that ready and willing to join the political process196.Secondly, external players acted as guarantors of security and stability in theregion. And for the external guarantors of security, the region invariably represented asignificant value justifying the need for a large-scale presence - economic, political,military. This statement today also lends itself to a partial adjustment, since the directvalue of the region as an energy supplier for the United States will fall due to thedevelopment of its own deposits thanks to the shale revolution.
At the same time, forother players in the international arena such need remains and the desire to influence thenature and direction of supplies remains relevant for Washington.For this reason, it is necessary to address the third root factor of any format ofregional security, namely, the degree of stability of authoritarian political regimes in195Mayall, J. (ed.) The new interventionism. - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003 – 245 р.Jackson, R. Quasi-states: sovereignty, international relations and the third world. / Cambridge: CambridgeUniversity Press, - 1993 110 р.19666most countries of the region.
Over the long period, the same leaders (or narrow clangroups) remained in power for many decades, mass social protests were successfullyprevented or suppressed, and explicit threats to the statehood of the countries of theregion arose only in exceptional cases197. In general, the foreign policy orientations ofthe countries of the region remained stable; when these orientations changed (the sharpturn of Egypt from the USSR to the USA in the mid-1970s or the fall of Iran from theorbit of American influence after the collapse of the Shah's regime in 1979), externalguarantors managed to maintain overall regional stability by adjusting bilateral ormultilateral balances within the system198.At the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, the once unchangingfoundations of regional security displayed their fragility and instability.
For the states ofthe region, it was time for the “perfect storm”, when almost simultaneously all theabove-mentioned features of the regional system stopped working. With the beginningof the "Arab awakening", the stability of a number of authoritarian Arab regimescollapsed199. Thus, one of the central problems provoking an extensive and intensiveexpansion of the crisis is the problem of the stability and effectiveness of stateinstitutions.
This should be the starting point of any discussion regarding ways to builda lasting security arrangement in the region.Due to limited public recognition and a lack of legitimacy, the ruling stateapparatus faced various challenges stemming from tribal, ethnic, religious and socialgroups that not only resisted the state, but also occasionally entered into directconfrontation with it200. To strengthen the power of the state over society, the rulingelites have resorted to a policy of carrots and carrots.
In particular, to increase thelegitimacy of the state, co-optation is widely practiced, i.e. the inclusion of individualgroups or figures in the composition of political structures to expand their social base.Sometimes an alternative method is used, which made it possible to ensure the stability197198Baldwin D. A. The concept of security / Review of International Studies, -1997, - P 23-26Внешнеполитический процесс в странах Востока / Ред.
Д.В. Стрельцов. - М.: Аспект пресс, 2011. - 336с.199Печуров С. Л. Арабский восток : от «весны» к хаосу? / Под ред: В.В.Наумкина Вячеславович, Р.Я.Эмануилова // Институт востоковедения РАН, - Москва, - 2013, - 120 с.200M. Hudson, Arab Politics: The Search for Legitimacy, (New Haven and London: Yale University Press,1977).67of the state apparatus, despite its narrow caste nature201. This refers to a kind of"Rantherism" in which citizens renounce certain social and political rights, in particular,the right to participate in political life, in exchange for the provision of social securityand tax exemption. But to maintain the state apparatus, overt violence has often beenused as well.
At the expense of limiting the political mobilization of the masses, theruling circles kept using such methods to suppress civil society movements anddemocratic political initiatives, which arise mainly in Islamist guise.In a sense, it can be argued that various governance strategies, includingpatrimonialism and power authoritarianism based on oil money, as well as loyalty to themilitary top and judicial system, provide the state structures with relative stability.However, while maintaining the stability of state power by such methods, the rulingcircles neglect the need to build a fair and just social state, which, alongside theorganization of an effective power apparatus, acts as one of the fundamentalcomponents of the security system at the state level.At the interstate level, special attention is commonly drawn to the lack of anintra-regional institutional base for maintaining and strengthening regional security.
Ofcourse, the main factor that aggravates instability, as we have shown before, is socioeconomic problems in the Arab countries202. But to address this situation, acomprehensive concept is needed to build and strengthen mutual trust, primarilybetween Arab countries and their neighbors, which would take into account the interestsof all states located in the region of West Asia and North Africa. For this purpose,efforts should be made to create and develop a system of collective regional security.Despite the positive message of this initiative, the appearance of such a format,according to the expert of the Brookings Institution K.
Pollack, is unlikely in themedium term203. This is largely due to the significant differences in understanding201E. Bellin (2004), “The robustness of authoritarianism in the Middle East: Exceptionalism in comparativeperspective.” Comparative politics, 36(2): 139–157202Восток и политика: Политические системы, политические культуры, политические процессы: Науч.метод.
комплекс / Под ред. А.Д. Воскресенского. – М.: Аспект Пресс, 2011. – 685 с.203Pollack K. M. Security and public order [Electronic resource]. // The Brookings Institution. URL:https://www.brookings.edu/research/security-and-public-order/68among the states of the region and the states involved in the affairs of the region, waysand methods of forming and developing such a security system.Transformational processes in the Arab world, which began in 2011, severelyundermined the previously fragile political balance of power in the countries of WestAsia and North Africa. Nevertheless, these processes reveal new opportunities for theformation of a more stable system of regional relations.
In this case, according to theresearch of A. Fedorchenko, the key importance will be cross-country projects of aneconomic and infrastructural nature, in which a significant role can be played byRussian companies and specialists204.A new Middle East as a regional security complex evolving in tune with withglobal trends is possible only if the West accepts the emerging regional model ofdemocracy with greater consideration for local characteristics.The security of the countries of the Middle East is at the junction of the interestsof not just local states. Russia, as a member of the UN Security Council, is closelyfollowing the rapidly developing events here, especially in places with a complexnational and religious composition.
In order to ensure security, it focuses on issues ofcommon interest, and on the long-term development of relations.In this format, the states of the region can work in the humanitarian andeconomic areas of interaction. The Middle East is forced to import a significant amountof food, as well as feed grain. The scarcity of fresh water leads to the inability todevelop agriculture without significant investment, and for the development of theeconomy, including in addition to agriculture the urban infrastructure and some waterintensive industries, it is necessary to develop an independent capital-intensive industryfor extraction and desalination, and freshwater transportation.
In this context, the Arabstates can build a system of ad-hoc interactions with the State of Israel, which has madegreat progress in this industry. Subsequently, such a relationship, according to the204Федорченко А.В. Российские экономические интересы на Ближнем Востоке / А.В. Федорченко // TheMidEast World. - 2013. - № 1. - С. 17-33.69theory of transfusion (spill-over), can lead to a full-fledged complex interaction at theinterstate level205.Over the past fifteen years, threats from the Middle East have become such ahabitual component of international politics that they are often been overlooked or takenfor granted.
The region is called the core of the “arc of instability” in Eurasia.Nevertheless, the perception of the Middle East as a tangle of insoluble problems, aswell as attempts by external players to respond individually to crisis situations, does notappear to be a particularly productive way of trying to make sense of what definesregional dynamics. Instead, according to the Russian scientist M. Sapronova, it wouldbe worthwhile to pay attention to the general socio-political landscape of the region andtry to assess the relationship between regional processes and exogenous influence and,based on that, to develop a mutually acceptable system of regional interaction206.Following from such aspirations, it is possible to use the experience of effectivemodels of interaction from the past, for example, the working group on arms controland regional security, which was established at a meeting of the US, Russian andMiddle Eastern countries (active between 1992-1996).
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