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The1461981 [ ال خ ل يجي ال ت عاون مج لس ل دول األول ى ال قمة ال خ تامي ال ب يانThe Final Communiqué The First GCCSummit,1981][Electronicresource]//Al-Jareda.–URL:http://www.moqatel.com/openshare/Wthaek/Europe1/KematMglsT/AKematMglsTawn1_1-1.htm_cvt.htm147Ibid.148Lust E., Waldner D.
Parties, Polarization, and Transition in the Arab World. Strauss Working Paper. 2014. P.4.149Корольков Л. Меняющаяся геометрия ближневосточных раскладов // Международные процессы.2015. Том 13, №1.С. 97–10647countries of the Council consider that their security and stability should be provided bytheir own forces, as well as by the international cooperation that they develop”.Following the new tendencies, political science paid more and more attention tothe relations of unequal potential countries.
In the 1980s, a new stage in thedevelopment of the theory began, connected with the emergence of a series ofbreakthrough studies devoted to the study of the policy of smaller and medium-sizedcountries. Among them is the theory of the balance of threats by St.
Walt, according towhich balancing is seen as a country's response to external challenges, and not aconsequence of availability of power from other players150.The end of the cold war and the two decades that followed it were characterizedby a radical weakening of military tension and as a consequence, a reduction inconfrontation in the international environment.
In the new conditions, the content ofbalancing and bandwagoning gradually changed151. Increasingly, they presupposed anon-military foreign policy tool for spreading or, conversely, deterring influence.Outside the system of balance of power, the policy of balancing by smaller andmedium-sized states and countries of the great-power type can also vary depending ontheir geographical location, the degree of dependence on cooperation with the greatpowers, and the interest of the latter in spreading their influence over the territoriesoccupied by these states152.
Thus, the balancing of countries of the great-power type isdue to the lack of interest or opportunity on the part of the great powers to spreadinfluence on their territories.The situation, however, is different for those small and medium-sized states,who are strategically important objects for spreading the influence of great powers.International political processes in the late 20th – early 21st centuries.
showed that if thesystem of balance of power is at the stage of formation, some states with a view tosurvival begin to pursue a policy of no-balancing - conscious refusal to join one ofseveral (two or more) forces vying for influence in a particular region. According to the150Walt S. The Origins of Alliances. – Cornell University Press, 1990. – 336 p.Лунев С.И. Сравнительный анализ воздействия цивилизационных особенностей сверхкрупных странна социально-политическое и экономическое развитие . С.И.Лунев, А.Д.Воскресенский // Сравнительная политика.– 2016. – №3. – С. 85–106.152Small states in international relations / ed.
by C. Ingebritsen – University of Iceland Press, 2006.- 128 р15148work of R. Haass, such a policy can bring substantially greater dividends than the policyof bandwagoning as it diminishes the aspiring hegemony’s capacity to impose its orderon the region153.Meanwhile, the final touch to this line of theorizing on the issue was added inthe works by R. Schweller, who disagreed with the Walt’s interpretation ofbandwagoning as a form of surrender. He developed a theory of balance of interests,within which he considered the non-military bandwagoning by one state vis-a-visanother for the purpose of deriving opportunistic economic benefits154.In his later works R.
Schweller attempted to propose his own classification ofbalancing policy. In it, he identified: balancing itself, which involves creating acounterweight to a dangerous aggressor through uniting military potentials andcontaining excessive reinforcement; overbalancing, when the goal is not to counteract aconcrete, obvious threat, but to increase one's own security; nonbalancing, which cantake the form of inaction, the routine of diplomacy; underbalancing, or erroneousbalancing, when the state either does not counteract the real threat, or does itineffectively, as the Baltic states do, refusing any ties with Russia, leaving eveneconomically viable projects155.The economization of regional policy, the creation by the countries of a regionof institutions and regimes designed to stimulate economic growth with a broad socialbase and a balanced distribution of benefits can significantly reduce the degree ofethnopolitical and geopolitical conflicts.
This narrative is equally relevant for the regionof the Middle East, where the potential for transformation towards qualitative economicgrowth still remains with respect to the sum of the initial possibilities (the quality ofhuman capital, the resource and industrial base) (taking into account in particular thehigh synergetic prospects for combining industrial and scientific possibilities of Iran and153Haass R. N. The Age of Nonpolarity. What Will Follow U.S. Dominance // Foreign Affairs. – 2008. – Vol.87/3.
– P. 44–56.154Schweller R. Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back in // International Security –1994. – Vol. 19:1. – 72–107 pp.155Schweller R. Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back in // International Security –1994. – Vol. 19:1.
– P. 72–10749Turkey with the resource base of the Arabian Gulf states)156. A fundamental obstacle tosuch transformation is the extremely negative (and deteriorating) dynamics of politicalprocesses.Any regional integration process is not predetermined. For a small country, thereis the right to choose - to drift closer to a stronger partner and thereby limit one's ownindependence or preserve all the fullness of state sovereignty, but to risk the possibilityof being isolated in relation to one's surroundings. In most cases, economic integrationturns out to be beneficial for smaller and medium-sized countries, which, as a rule, needaccess to external resources (natural, labor, financial), a larger market for finishedproducts and stable macroeconomic conditions for development157.The rapprochement with a stronger and more competitive state through theformation of a customs union, a zone of free movement of capital, goods, services andlabor is often an effective way to address these issues.
The motivation forrapprochement may also be subjective: for example, governments in some “third world”countries often seek to draw closer to other states to balance not external but internalthreats (for example, to weaken competing political groups). Moreover, both reasonscan be a factor catalyzing the desire to integrate with a more influential neighbor, asBahrain relies on Saudi Arabia and the GCC, not only because of fears of directaggression from Iran, but also because of the serious internal political divisions thatother actors could use and instrumentalize. Bahrain has repeatedly accused Tehran ofinterfering in its internal affairs, supporting groups across the microregion that seek tooverthrow monarchical regimes. Bahrain has also accused the Iranian RevolutionaryGuards of training the citizens of Bahrain for carrying out terrorist attacks inside thecountry158.156Угрозы международной безопасности на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке.
// Актуальныепроблемы международных отношений и глобального развития: сб. науч. ст. Вып. 2 / сост. Е. А. Достанко ; редкол. :А. М. Байчоров (гл. ред.) [и др.]. – Минск : БГУ, 2014. – 208 с. С. 201-205157Fedorchenko A.V., Krylov A.V. Middle East: Possible Scenarios of Transformation Process / A.V.Fedorchenko, A.V. Krylov // Best Works of the Scientists from the Institute for International Studies (Digest in English andRussian), 1st edition / Ed. by A. A. Orlov.
– Moscow.: MGIMO – University publications, 2013. – PP. 73-75.158Rebuilding Security in the Persian Gulf [Electronic resource] // The Middle East Institute. – URL:http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/01/bahrain-accuses-iran-training-rebels-201413144049814960.html50By and large, for smaller and medium-sized countries, combining economicbandwagoning with defensive balancing and attempts to uphold their sovereigntythrough reliance on extra-regional centers of power, lying outside the integration core isquite characteristic and even emblematic.Involvement of Middle Eastern countries in various forms of regional economicintegration can, too, become the basis for the normalization of the political situation, aprerequisite for the influx of investment and, as a result, increase in the standards ofliving159.The role of Russia in the integration in the Arab world is not very noticeable asyet, since the restoration of the previous level of Russian-Arab economic ties has not byfar been accomplished for all the lofty official declarations.
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