диссертация (1169608), страница 15

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A specialdanger would be the proliferation of nuclear weapons in this area, which is saturatedwith conflict potential. The scale of this catastrophic scenario cannot and must not beunderestimated.Another significant feature of the Middle East region is the fact that extremistand terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State, Jaysh Al-Fatah, Al-Qaeda andothers originating here and being fed from local sources act as serious players in theinternational arena177.

The diffusion of local terrorist potential has long been not ahypothetical but a very real, tangible threat: terrorist attacks are increasingly beingcommitted in the contiguous areas of the southern Mediterranean178 and Europe179.175Fragile States Index 2014 [Electronic resource] // Informational and analytical portal Center for HumanitarianTechnologies URL: http://gtmarket.ru/news/2014/06/26/6836176Toward a Regional Framework for the Middle East: Takeaways from other Regions Ross Harrison[Electronic resource] // The Middle East Institute.– URL: http://www.mei.edu/content/toward-regional-framework-middleeast-takeaways-other-regions177Ридер РСМД Антиправительственные экстремистские организации в Сирии [Электронный ресурс] //Российский совет по международным делам. – URL: http://russiancouncil.ru/syria-extremism178СериятерактоввПариже[Электронныйресурс]//РИАНовости.–URL:http://ria.ru/trend/paris_14112015/58The active participation of groups of this kind in public administration, theconduct of foreign policy as wartime (civil war in Syria, where Lebanese Hezbollah isat war with government forces, and the opposition is supported by local branches of AlQaeda, such as Jabhad al-Nusra) render the regional situation ever more unpredictablefor any reliable geopolitical and geoeconomic forecasts, which has an impact on theattitude of the international community towards the region180.The need to eradicate terrorism, nevertheless, created certain prerequisites forthe strengthening and development of Arab states' cooperation with NATO, especiallyafter the events of 9/11, on the grounds of conducting joint large-scale militaryexercises and maneuvers to prevent terrorist actions.

Among the exercises of NATOwith the armies of the Arab states are "Bright Star", which were held every two years inEgypt, “Security and vigilance at sea: and - since 2008 with the participation of thenaval forces of Algeria, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia - "Phoenix Express" on theMediterranean Sea. Among the joint anti-terrorist exercises and operations, theAmerican "Trans-Saharan counterterrorism initiative" is singled out with the Sahelcountries. Algeria, Israel and Morocco are participating in NATO's “Active Effort”,patrolling the Mediterranean. The Maghreb countries participate in the activities of the"5 + 5" group (Maghreb states + Spain, Italy, France, Portugal and Malta).

Within theframework of the Mediterranean and Istanbul cooperation initiatives have beenunfolding since the 1990s, including dialogue with Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria,as well as with a number of countries in the Arabian Gulf on issues of security andcooperation in the military field. Since the beginning of the 21st century, plans havebeen developed that provided for a landing of rapid-response landing forces with the useof the military forces of Morocco and Tunisia to restore legitimate regimes in NorthAfrica, in the event of the seizure of power by extremists in one of the Maghreb states.179Ibid.Toward a Regional Framework for the Middle East: Takeaways from other Regions Ross Harrison[Electronic resource] // The Middle East Institute.– URL: http://www.mei.edu/content/toward-regional-framework-middleeast-takeaways-other-regions18059Training is also under way to train local military corps in the tactics of tracking downand seizing the forces of bandit underground181.At the same time, dependence on foreign actors continues to play a negative role- they are constantly asked for help, requesting financial, military or humanitariansupport.

“It's time for the Middle East to grow up and cease to be the source of onlyproblems”182, Nabil Fahmi, the former Egyptian Foreign Minister, said on one occasion.One of the characteristic features of this subcontinent is the absence of arecognized leader. This only increases competition (including by extra-regional actors,expanding the classical boundaries of the “game of nations”), spurring on further chaosof interstate relations in the region183.As one would expect, the systems of international relations that are in theprocess of transition are determined by the struggle between the preponderant andemerging powers.

For the latter the vision of the regional order as the principal buildingblocks of the global order will prevail. The rising powers are trying to extend theircontrol and influence to other territories, other states, regional economic privileges andthe whole complex of rules and rights governing interaction between states (such asinternational norms and regimes, the nature of diplomacy, image factor, informaldistribution of zones of influence, property rights on a global scale). According to theexpert in international relations R. Gilpin, this is a classic case of hegemonic war andchanges on a regional scale.One of the most important disintegrating factors for the entire regional system isthe demographic situation in the region.

By the end of the 20th century in the countriesof the Middle East, there was a marked acceleration in the rate of population growth up to 3.0%. According to the CIA World Factbook over the past few decades, the181Michael Doran What Is the Central Strategic Question in the Middle East? [Electronic resource] // TheBrookings Institution.

– URL: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2014/09/30/what-is-the-central-strategic-questionin-the-middle-east/182Statesmen's Forum: Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy [Electronic resource] // Centre for Strategic &International Studies. – URL: https://www.csis.org/events/statesmens-forum-egyptian-foreign-minister-nabil-fahmy183Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981); G. JohnIkenberry, After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars (Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press, 2001).60demographic potential in the Middle East is characterized by a stable positive rate ofnatural population growth, on average it is about 3.2% per year in 2000-2018184.Such rates of demographic growth already today cause a whole range ofproblems: from lack of jobs and to full-fledged risks to food security.

All these factorsare exerting a negative impact on the social position of broad segments of society, thedialogue between the electorate and the state does not always fit into the constitutionalframework. Against this background, extremist sentiments are gaining popularity, andthe number of members of terrorist groups is growing. Without exaggerating the role ofthe ethno-confessional factor, we must note that in Syria, a country with unemploymentabove 50%185, and an unprecedented level of migration and internally displaced persons,a salary of 500-800 dollars (average fee for an insurgent in 2013-2015)186 is not a matterof stimulating certain moods, but a question of economic survival of whole layers of thepopulation.The type of the age structure of the population (a high proportion of youngpeople) in states with an undeveloped system of social mobility lifts and the inability toensure the reproduction of the adequate number jobs at the proper levels ofqualifications fuels dissent and dissatisfaction.So, since 2011, a wave of demonstrations and antigovernment movement havebeen rolling across the region, known as the Arab Spring (the name refers to theexpression Spring of Nations, the period of revolutions in Europe 1848-1849).

In fact,this is the second passionary shift (using L.Gumilev’s original terminology187) in theMiddle East. The previous one, which occurred as a result of the collapse of the colonialsystem in the 1950s-1960s, led to the nationalist governments in the leading countries ofthe region, who generally successfully used the confrontation of the two superpowers tosolve their problems of postcolonial development.184Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook.

URL: www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/URL: www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/185‫[ سوري ة ف ي وال ف قر ال بطال ة‬Unemployment and poverty in Syria] [Electronic resource] // Mafhourm. – URL:http://www.mafhoum.com/syr/articles_01/nabil/nabil.htm186‫[ ال م ت شددي ن أح ضان ف ي ال عراق ي ين ت رمي مال يا اإل س الم ية ال دول ة محارب ة‬Fighting the Muslim state financiallyaims at Iraqis in the arms of militants] [Electronic resource] // Middle East Online – URL: http://www.middle-eastonline.com/?id=208541187Гумилев, Л.Н. Этногенез и биосфера Земли / Л.Н. Гумилев.

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