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Таблица 5.3 Расчет выравненных значений Т и ошибок Е в мультипликативной модели
| t | y | S | y/S | T | T·S |
| E |
|
|
| 1 | 472,5 | 1,045 | 452,024 | 462,884 | 483,852 | 1223,600 | 0,977 | -11,352 | 128,866 |
| 2 | 482,1 | 0,992 | 486,039 | 464,396 | 460,632 | 644,144 | 1,047 | 21,468 | 460,863 |
| 3 | 489,5 | 0,995 | 492,032 | 465,908 | 463,510 | 323,280 | 1,056 | 25,990 | 675,460 |
| 4 | 493,6 | 0,994 | 496,428 | 467,419 | 464,757 | 192,654 | 1,062 | 28,843 | 831,923 |
| 5 | 488 | 0,996 | 490,190 | 468,931 | 466,836 | 379,470 | 1,045 | 21,164 | 447,915 |
| 6 | 490,6 | 0,993 | 494,071 | 470,443 | 467,138 | 284,934 | 1,050 | 23,462 | 550,462 |
| 7 | 492,5 | 1,000 | 492,362 | 471,955 | 472,087 | 224,400 | 1,043 | 20,413 | 416,700 |
| 8 | 488,1 | 0,997 | 489,587 | 473,466 | 472,028 | 375,584 | 1,034 | 16,072 | 258,315 |
| 9 | 493,1 | 1,000 | 493,166 | 474,978 | 474,915 | 206,784 | 1,038 | 18,185 | 330,712 |
| 10 | 484,5 | 0,997 | 485,935 | 476,490 | 475,083 | 528,080 | 1,020 | 9,417 | 88,688 |
| 11 | 483 | 0,997 | 484,563 | 478,001 | 476,459 | 599,270 | 1,014 | 6,541 | 42,783 |
| 12 | 476,9 | 0,994 | 479,676 | 479,513 | 476,738 | 935,136 | 1,000 | 0,162 | 0,026 |
| 13 | 477,9 | 1,045 | 457,190 | 481,025 | 502,814 | 874,976 | 0,950 | -24,914 | 620,722 |
| 14 | 467,5 | 0,992 | 471,320 | 482,537 | 478,626 | 1598,400 | 0,977 | -11,126 | 123,785 |
| 15 | 470,9 | 0,995 | 473,336 | 484,048 | 481,558 | 1338,096 | 0,978 | -10,658 | 113,586 |
| 16 | 469,1 | 0,994 | 471,787 | 485,560 | 482,794 | 1473,024 | 0,972 | -13,694 | 187,532 |
| 17 | 478,1 | 0,996 | 480,246 | 487,072 | 484,896 | 863,184 | 0,986 | -6,796 | 46,180 |
| 18 | 480,6 | 0,993 | 484,000 | 488,584 | 485,151 | 722,534 | 0,991 | -4,551 | 20,714 |
| 19 | 479,3 | 1,000 | 479,166 | 490,095 | 490,233 | 794,112 | 0,978 | -10,933 | 119,520 |
| 20 | 484,2 | 0,997 | 485,676 | 491,607 | 490,113 | 541,958 | 0,988 | -5,913 | 34,968 |
| 21 | 484,9 | 1,000 | 484,965 | 493,119 | 493,053 | 509,856 | 0,983 | -8,153 | 66,467 |
| 22 | 485,6 | 0,997 | 487,038 | 494,630 | 493,170 | 478,734 | 0,985 | -7,570 | 57,300 |
| 23 | 486,1 | 0,997 | 487,674 | 496,142 | 494,541 | 457,104 | 0,983 | -8,441 | 71,255 |
| 24 | 484,7 | 0,994 | 487,521 | 497,654 | 494,774 | 518,928 | 0,980 | -10,074 | 101,480 |
| 25 | 510,9 | 1,045 | 488,760 | 499,166 | 521,777 | 11,696 | 0,979 | -10,877 | 118,302 |
| 26 | 484,7 | 0,992 | 488,660 | 500,677 | 496,620 | 518,928 | 0,976 | -11,920 | 142,075 |
| 27 | 486,6 | 0,995 | 489,117 | 502,189 | 499,605 | 435,974 | 0,974 | -13,005 | 169,130 |
| 28 | 488,4 | 0,994 | 491,198 | 503,701 | 500,832 | 364,046 | 0,975 | -12,432 | 154,543 |
| 29 | 489,5 | 0,996 | 491,697 | 505,212 | 502,955 | 323,280 | 0,973 | -13,455 | 181,042 |
| 30 | 486,6 | 0,993 | 490,042 | 506,724 | 503,164 | 435,974 | 0,967 | -16,564 | 274,382 |
| 31 | 491,8 | 1,000 | 491,662 | 508,236 | 508,378 | 245,862 | 0,967 | -16,578 | 274,837 |
| 32 | 495,2 | 0,997 | 496,709 | 509,748 | 508,199 | 150,798 | 0,974 | -12,999 | 168,971 |
| 33 | 491,8 | 1,000 | 491,866 | 511,259 | 511,191 | 245,862 | 0,962 | -19,391 | 376,008 |
| 34 | 496,1 | 0,997 | 497,569 | 512,771 | 511,257 | 129,504 | 0,970 | -15,157 | 229,726 |
| 35 | 498,8 | 0,997 | 500,415 | 514,283 | 512,623 | 75,342 | 0,973 | -13,823 | 191,086 |
| 36 | 501,5 | 0,994 | 504,419 | 515,794 | 512,809 | 35,760 | 0,978 | -11,309 | 127,902 |
| 37 | 541 | 1,045 | 517,556 | 517,306 | 540,739 | 1123,590 | 1,000 | 0,261 | 0,068 |
| 38 | 512,3 | 0,992 | 516,486 | 518,818 | 514,613 | 23,232 | 0,996 | -2,313 | 5,351 |
| 39 | 512,6 | 0,995 | 515,251 | 520,330 | 517,652 | 26,214 | 0,990 | -5,052 | 25,526 |
| 40 | 511,5 | 0,994 | 514,430 | 521,841 | 518,869 | 16,160 | 0,986 | -7,369 | 54,300 |
| 41 | 511,9 | 0,996 | 514,197 | 523,353 | 521,015 | 19,536 | 0,983 | -9,115 | 83,079 |
| 42 | 513,9 | 0,993 | 517,536 | 524,865 | 521,178 | 41,216 | 0,986 | -7,278 | 52,965 |
| 43 | 520 | 1,000 | 519,854 | 526,376 | 526,524 | 156,750 | 0,988 | -6,524 | 42,562 |
| 44 | 515,9 | 0,997 | 517,472 | 527,888 | 526,284 | 70,896 | 0,980 | -10,384 | 107,836 |
| 45 | 524,2 | 1,000 | 524,270 | 529,400 | 529,329 | 279,558 | 0,990 | -5,129 | 26,308 |
| 46 | 527,1 | 0,997 | 528,661 | 530,912 | 529,344 | 384,944 | 0,996 | -2,244 | 5,035 |
| 47 | 529,8 | 0,997 | 531,515 | 532,423 | 530,705 | 498,182 | 0,998 | -0,905 | 0,820 |
| 48 | 534,9 | 0,994 | 538,014 | 533,935 | 530,845 | 751,856 | 1,008 | 4,055 | 16,443 |
| 49 | 578,2 | 1,045 | 553,144 | 535,447 | 559,701 | 5001,318 | 1,033 | 18,499 | 342,198 |
| 50 | 539,4 | 0,992 | 543,807 | 536,959 | 532,607 | 1018,886 | 1,013 | 6,793 | 46,148 |
| 51 | 545,3 | 0,995 | 548,120 | 538,470 | 535,700 | 1430,352 | 1,018 | 9,600 | 92,168 |
| 52 | 551,9 | 0,994 | 555,062 | 539,982 | 536,906 | 1973,136 | 1,028 | 14,994 | 224,816 |
| 53 | 549,7 | 0,996 | 552,167 | 541,494 | 539,074 | 1782,528 | 1,020 | 10,626 | 112,904 |
| 54 | 550,1 | 0,993 | 553,992 | 543,005 | 539,191 | 1816,464 | 1,020 | 10,909 | 119,009 |
| 55 | 554 | 1,000 | 553,845 | 544,517 | 544,670 | 2164,110 | 1,017 | 9,330 | 87,055 |
| 56 | 550 | 0,997 | 551,676 | 546,029 | 544,370 | 1807,950 | 1,010 | 5,630 | 31,698 |
| 57 | 565,6 | 1,000 | 565,676 | 547,541 | 547,467 | 3377,934 | 1,033 | 18,133 | 328,793 |
| 58 | 564,7 | 0,997 | 566,373 | 549,052 | 547,431 | 3274,128 | 1,032 | 17,269 | 298,224 |
| 59 | 566,9 | 0,997 | 568,735 | 550,564 | 548,788 | 3530,736 | 1,033 | 18,112 | 328,060 |
| 60 | 572,7 | 0,994 | 576,034 | 552,076 | 548,881 | 4253,648 | 1,043 | 23,819 | 567,361 |
| Итого | 52661,016 | 60,006 | 1,751 | 11202,95 |
Определим компоненту Т данной модели. Для этого проведем аналитическое выравнивание ряда (T∙E) с помощью линейного тренда. Результаты аналитического выравнивания следующие:
![](https://s.studizba.com/z.php?f=/templates/si/i/noavatar.png&w=100&h=100&t=1"){kind=avatar}
