01-04-2020-Oxford_English_for_Infomation_Technology (1171844), страница 29
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Allthis will be without any communication cablessince the whole system uses high capacity infraredlinks. The many short-term contractors may nothave enough space in their homes for an officeand may go instead to a new breed of localtelework centre.Of course, workers can be fully mobile, and wecould see some people abandon officescompletely, roaming the world and staying intouch via satellite systems.
Even in trains andplanes there may be infrared distribution to eachseat to guarantee high bandwidth communication.One tool they may have in a few years iseffectively a communicator badge. This will givethem a voice link to computers across thenetwork, perhaps on their office desk.
Using thisvoice link, they can access their files and email andcarry out most computer-based work. Theirearphones will allow voice synthesisers to read outtheir mail, and glasses with a projection systembuilt into the arms and reflectors on the lenses willallow a head-up display of visual information.Perhaps by 2010, these glasses could be replaced byan active contact lens that writes pictures directlyonto the retina using tiny lasers.174UNIT 24 The Future of ITFinally and frivolously to the very long term. Byaround 2030, we may have the technology todirectly link our brain to the ultra-smartcomputers that will be around then, giving us somuch extra brainpower that we deserve a newname, Homo Cyberneticus.
In much the sametime frame, geneticists may have created the firstbiologically optimised humans, Homo Optimus. Itwould make sense to combine this expertise withinformation technology wizardry to makesomething like the Borg, Homo Hybridus, withthe body of an Olympic athlete and a brainliterally the size of the planet, the whole globalsuperhighway and every machine connected to it.Over time, this new form may converge with themachine world, as more and more of his thoughtsoccur in cyberspace. With a complete backup onthe network, Homo Hybridus would becompletely immortal.
Ordinary biological humanswould eventually accept the transition and plainold Homo Sapiens could become voluntarilyextinct, perhaps as early as 2200.Now exchange information with others in your group to list allthe predictions made in the text. Discuss with your group thepredictions made and add your own comments on the predictions inthe last section of the table.LANGUAGE WORKPredictions (2): Future perfect and It in subject positionWe use the Future perfect to predict actionswhich will be completed before a particulartime in the future.
It is often used with timeexpressions such as by 2020, before the end ofthe century. For example:1By 2010 scientists will have developedactive contact lenses.We can vary the strength of our predictionsusing the certainty verbs studied in Unit 16instead of will. For example:2 By 2030 geneticists may/might/could havecreated the first biologically optimisedhumans.We can also make predictions using It insubject position when the true subject of theprediction is a that clause. For example,1 It's likely that computers will be used todevelop other faster computers.2 It's possible that we'll work from teleworkcentres in future.Make predictions for 2020 for each of the following using themethods studied here.
You may wish to use these verbs:developdisappearincreasereplacetake overcomputing powermachine intelligence comparedinterfacesto human intelligencemonitorsteleworkingthe Internetmoneyshopskeyboardsspeech recognitionUNIT 24 The Future of IT175Write sentences similar in meaning to each of thesepredictions with It in subject position. For example:I don't think we'll use cable connections in future. (unlikely)It's unlikely that we'll use cable connections in future.12345678910SPEAKINGI'm sure we won't use magnetic tape.
(certain)We may well have electronic chips in our bodies. (probable)Computers could easily be used to develop other computers.(likely)I don't think we'll replace teachers with robots. (unlikely)There's a chance we'll develop alternatives to silicon.(possible)I really don't think we'll have replaced the motor car before2020. (very unlikely)I'm almost sure we'll replace the CRT monitor in the next fewyears.
(highly probable)I'm definite we'll have more virtual personalities on the Web.(certain)We might adopt Bluetooth as a standard for wirelessapplications.(possible)Doctors may be able to operate on patients at a distance.(quite likely)Think of arguments for and against this statement.Computers will catch up with the power and speed of the humanbrain by 2050. Some time after that they will start outstripping usand taking over from us.Choose one side only - for or against the statement. Nowlisten to the recording and note down any points in support of yourside.Using your notes and your own ideas, try to persuade the restof your group to accept your views on the statement in Task 8.WRITINGSummarise the views of Pearson and of the experts you heardon the recording on the Future of Information Technology.
Give yourown comments on their views. Write about 250 words.176UNIT 24 The Future of ITSPECIALIST READINGBFind the answers to these questions in thetext below.1Of what is Professor Cochrane completelyconvinced?What is stored in the professor's signet ring?What will change dramatically when we startusing rings like these?What is the BT lab developing with artificialintelligence?What effect are the professor's Alexperiments having on evolution?What does the professor see as the negativeside of the electronic revolution?What was the result of combining theInternet with TV?What developments does the professorsuggest in the field of biotechnology?According to the professor, what will happenby the year 2015?23456789FUTURESTalking to Professor Cochrane is probably asclose as you can get to time travelling withoutleaving the current dimension, as his visionstretches far into the 21st century and beyond.His seemingly unshakeable conviction is thatanything is possible if you really put your mindto it.
In fact, BT (British Telecom) is alreadysitting on a host of innovations poised to blowyour mind during this century.Designed for the 21st century, Peter Cochrane'ssignet ring is built around a chip that holds allthe details of his passport, bank account,medical records and driving licence. Accordingto Cochrane, it's set to revolutionise shopping.The ring is already a fully operational prototype,but it will be some time before you'll be tradingyour credit card in for the ultimate fashionaccessory.It's not just jewellery that's set to get smarter.One of the biggest projects down at the Lab islooking at artificial intelligence as a way ofcreating software programs, networks,telephones and machines with a degree ofintelligence built in.
By sensing theirenvironment, they should be able to developnew capacities as demands change. 'I havesoftware that is breeding, which is interchanginggenes and creating adaptable behaviour. Thismeans you'll see the network come alive - itwill watch what you do and it will adapt.'It doesn't stop there, though, as BT has takenartificial intelligence one step further andcreated machines that are solving their ownproblems. 'We've created solutions that ahuman being could never have dreamed of. Wehave solutions, and although we don'tunderstand how they work, they do work. We'reeffectively increasing the speed of evolution',says Cochrane.It's already good to talk, but with artificiallyintelligent phones on the way it will be evenbetter.
Cochrane is at present working on smartphones that can translate English into German,Japanese and French in real-time. 'Some of it'sUNIT 24 The Future of IT 177rocket science, but a lot of it's extremely simple.What we've built is a kernel of understandinginside a machine that extracts meaning from thesentence itself - at the moment we can dosimple things such as phrase books,' he says.The system uses a non-linear approach thatsends the English to the understanding kernel inthe machine and then fans it out to all the otherlanguages simultaneously.There's no doubt that Cochrane is putting a lotof faith in intelligent machines, particularlywhen it comes to cutting through the deluge ofinformation that he says is the downside of theelectronic revolution.
BT's solution is thedevelopment of intelligent agents that watch,learn and start communicating.It's not all work down at the Lab, though. BT'salso involved in an on-going trial that it claimswill revolutionise our leisure time, in particularthe way we watch TV. 'We put people on theInternet and broadcast TV at the same time, sothat the people at home could actually influencewhat was happening on their TV sets. As aresult, it became interactive and therefore moreactive.'BT has its fingers in multiple pies and has madebiotechnology another core focus of R&D.'Personally, I think hospitals are very dangerousplaces to be.
There are lots of viablealternatives. For a start, we can stop bunging uphospital wards by putting people online.' BT hasalready developed a pack for heart attackvictims that monitors their progress and uploadsinformation via a radio link back to the hospital.So what will the 21st century hold for us if PeterCochrane and his futurologists have their way?Well, by the year 201 5, it's likely that we willbe eclipsed by a supercomputer more powerfulthan the human brain. And if that's got visionsof Terminator dancing in your head, don't worry- Cochrane's got it covered.
'I'd really hate onemorning to find myself considered an infestationof this planet. Our inclination is to nurture lifeand not to destroy it. Before we let loose abunch of artificial intelligence, we ought to bethinking through the necessity of building in anumber of rules that hold your life as a humanbeing sacrosanct.'[Adapted from 'Futures, Celebrity Squares', Professor PeterCochrane, PC Pro Magazine, February 1998]BRe-read the text to find the answers tothese questions.1 Match the terms in Table A with thestatements in Table B.Table AaBTbSmart phonecIntelligent agentd Rocket scienceeR&DfUploadgSupercomputerTable BiA computer program that watches, learnsand communicates with the useriiMost powerful type of computeriii Research and developmentiv Transfer data from a client device to aserver computervA telephone that can translate Englishinto various languages in real-timevi British Telecomvii Very advanced study2 Mark the following statements as True orFalse:a BT has a lot of new ideas that will astoundpeople.bJewellery that can store large amounts ofpersonal data has started to replace creditcards.cBT's smart phone can only translateEnglish into one other language at a time.dIntelligent agents can help users deal withan overload of information.e Watching TV will be a more active pastimein the future.f The professor thinks that humanity will bedestroyed by very powerful computers inthe future.UNIT 25INTERVIEWElectronic PublishingSTARTERWhich of these should be published in electronic form andwhich in traditional paper versions? Compare answers with others inyour group.
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