диссертация (1169608), страница 29
Текст из файла (страница 29)
This prompted the authorities to start developing technologies for processingand distilling oil. Bahrain has become the only state of the Arabian Gulf importingcrude oil. It was the transition from oil extraction to its processing and distillation thatincreased the flow of foreign capital into the country and turned Bahrain into aninternational banking center.
Nevertheless, the economy of Bahrain, like the Russianone, still remains largely dependent on the influence of external factors, namely, on theprices of hydrocarbons. Both Moscow and Manama pursue a policy aimed at reducingthe direct dependence on commodity prices. In this context, both countries havecontinuously displayed interest in exchange of experience in addressing the issues ofcreating and managing free economic zones, ports and other infrastructure, as bothcapitals look at them as potential ways of diversifying their respective nationaleconomies. This makes it possible to predict the pooling of efforts to developappropriate programs for economic restructuring based exchange of experience on workalready done.
In addition, it helps the Russian state achieve multi-vector consolidationin the region, working towards complementarity of political and economic efforts.114However, the resource of time plays against Moscow in this situation. For example,Western and Chinese competitors managed to squeeze out Russian business inmetallurgy and in the construction of energy infrastructure in Algeria, where asignificant part of the national importance was built with the assistance of the USSR: ametallurgical plant in Annaba, TPP in the city of Žižel, the Alrar-Tinfueye gas pipeline-Hassi Messaoud, the dams "Beni-Zid" and "Tilesdit", the facilities of the metallurgicalplant in Al-Hajar.What we observe now is a situation when the use by Russian competitors oflobbyists in the Arab countries, defending not only the business interests of companies,but also the political aspirations of the state, is one-sided because of the absence of suchefforts from Moscow; the continuing volatile situation in some countries of the MiddleEast and North Africa makes very high investments in the economies of the countries ofthe region highly risky; the worsening of Russia's political relations with some Arabcountries due to the divergence of assessments of the situation in Syria negativelyaffects regional security.Cooperation with Bahrain will allow these contradictions to be leveled andresolved through a positive example of interaction that may later on bring aboutappropriate changes in the views of the leadership of the countries of the subregionregarding the Russian global policy of supporting allies and non-interference in thesovereign affairs of other states.At present Russia does not occupy leading positions in the economic and tradeties of Bahrain, however it has a wide range of mutual interests, which gives bothcountries the prospect of establishing a strong economic partnership, since the potentialof mutually beneficial cooperation covers several large areas.
The main areas ofbilateral Russian-Bahraini cooperation at the present stage are energy, pharmacologicalindustry, agriculture, financial sector, civil and space aircraft construction, and themetallurgical industry. The Kingdom is also interested in increasing its productioncapabilities in the military field.
It should be noted that the potential of bilateral tradeand economic relations has not yet been realized, despite some positive dynamics.115In the field of oil and gas, cooperation in the use of advanced Russiantechnologies to increase the productivity of oil wells, reconnaissance in transit zonesand at great depth under conditions of increased complexity, the supply of liquefied gas,construction and operation of gas pipelines is paramount.Prospects of Russian companies on the market of the Cooperation Council canbe estimated as quite favorable.
In the context of the depreciation of the ruble, Russianproducts and services are becoming more price competitive. Bahrain's commitment toexpanding the traditional list of foreign economic partners creates additionalopportunities of market entry for the Russian suppliers interested in contacts that implythe sale of products with high added value.A strong long-term cooperation with the Kingdom of Bahrain has a strategicpolitical implication for Russia, given the geographical position of the Kingdom and itstraditional relations with Saudi Arabia and the United States.
One cannot deny theinfluence of Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Cooperation Council of the Arab States ofthe Arabian Gulf and the largest importer for Bahrain, on the latter’s foreign policy.Saudi Arabia is one of the leading actors in the Middle East region more generally,including its strong position in OPEC. The position of the representatives of the SaudiKingdom has a significant degree of influence on the current issues for the RussianFederation - from pricing in the oil market and to the regional security system. It isthrough bilateral cooperation with Bahrain, the use of its nascent status of thenegotiating platform to stabilize the Middle Eastern highly conflict-prone space, thatRussia will be able to maintain its own positions in the Gulf subregion and the MiddleEast in general.
All elements of regional security in the Middle East are interrelated andinterdependent, respectively. This means that the security of the Gulf countries inisolation from the rest of the region is impossible.At the same time, it is in Bahrain that the main base of the United States' fifthfleet is deployed. And in spite of partial distancing from the fears of its Arab allies ofnormalizing relations with Iran during Obama's presidency, Washington continues to bea key guarantor of the national security of small and medium-sized states in the Gulfregion Bay.
A clear confirmation of this thesis is provided by the “backward drift” of116the administration of the US President Donald Trump, whose foreign policy teamconsists of ardent opponents of Iran and a number of supporters of toughening sanctionsagainst Russia.In this situation, Moscow will not manage to build relations from the position ofunilateral domination, because the US is unlikely to sacrifice its traditional allies. TheBahraini side, in the course of bilateral meetings, supports the development of adialogue with Russia on such issues as the Arab-Israeli settlement, the situation aroundIraq and Iran, countering international terrorism and other challenges and threats.Bahrain positively perceives the Russian concept of providing security in theArabian Gulf zone.
The interest of Bahrain in expanding all-round contacts with Russiais also welcome in Moscow, which is trying to find reliable partners in the Middle Eastin the light of unstable relations with Turkey, as well as lack of strategic mutualunderstanding with Saudi Arabia.In the long-term period, in addition to creating an inclusive dialogue format anddeveloping communication channels, an important problem in bilateral RussianBahraini relations is the problem of determining which social forces can be recognizedas legitimate in the forthcoming transformation of the region.
For Bahrain, this directionis particularly important because of the very high polarization of society within thecountry and the tendency for regional actors to work with dissatisfied segments of thepopulation to pursue their own interests. Interaction in this direction implies identifyingwhat ideological trends are unacceptable because of their proximity to radicalextremism and terrorism, and with which trends, including, possibly, Islamist groups, itis worth building a dialogue.Russia advocates a different, less antagonistic agenda, since events can beobserved at its borders, to which such hateful rhetoric has led in the past and whatindependent destructive dynamics it acquires with a change of generations.Cooperation with Bahrain for Russia is part of an important trend that wasoutlined in 2016 - the expansion of the circle of partners in the Middle East.
Accordingto V. Naumkin, the high level of cooperation with Egypt, Israel the agreements onlimiting the level of oil production with the OPEC countries, including Saudi Arabia117and, of course, the normalization of relations with Turkey (formation Astana format ofthe Syrian settlement).
In this context, the scale of the trend is a sign of its stability andduration. The importance of the outlined prospects for the Russian-Bahrainirapprochement is also determined by the mutual need for states to build ties with actorsnot included in the traditional aura of influence and cooperation. Diversification ofcontacts in the emerging geopolitical reality is not only a guarantee of presence in keyregions, but for individual players it is also a matter of preserving sovereignty.118LIST OF SOURCES AND LITERATUREI.
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