2Резюме_Порошин_English_12.12.2018 (1136351), страница 8
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Thus, the likelihood of dominant partyrule collapse as a result of higher share of votes for the challengers is increasing.As a result, the following theoretical hypothesis is formulated on therelationship between the level of electoral support for the ruling party's competitorsand the single-party dominance persistence:23H3: Regimes with a higher electoral support for the ruling party’s competitorshave a shorter duration of single-party dominance.Section 2.4. The prior experience with electoral democracy deals with theeffects of the prior experience with electoral democracy on the single-partydominance persistence.
The specification of the presence of prior experience withelectoral democracy for dominant party regimes is realized by examining at leastone observation of electoral turnover in power prior to the emergence of single-partydominance.The presence or absence of prior experience with electoral democracy isrecognized as an important factor influencing the functioning of political institutionswithin dominant party regimes. Single-party dominance, which emerges underconditions of prior experience with electoral democracy, is likely to stem from thepolitical structure of society. In this way the dominant party represents the demandfor a certain policy supported by a large social groups.
So long-term stable incentivesare created for the upholding of single-party dominance.Single-party dominance in regimes without prior experience with electoraldemocracy, and with survival mechanisms based on the incentives and interests ofthe ruling party, rather than on the social demands, is more exposed to threat ofbreakdown due to low electoral support and vulnerability to social and economicchallenges.As a result, the following theoretical hypothesis is formulated on therelationship between the prior experience with electoral democracy and the singleparty dominance persistence:H4: Regimes with prior experience with electoral democracy have a longerduration of single-party dominance than regimes without prior experience withelectoral democracy.Section 2.5. The frequency of the chief executive turnover analyzes theimpact of chief executive turnover frequency.
The indicator is calculated as the ratio24of the number of persons holding the chief executive post (only persons with theterm of office of 1 year and more are considered in order to exclude temporaryindividuals), to the period of single-party dominance (in months).It is assumed that longer duration will characterize those dominant partyregimes which passed the test of the chief executive turnover and did not collapse asa result. It is proposed to use the quantitative index of the frequency of chiefexecutive turnover.As a result, the following theoretical hypothesis is formulated on therelationship between the frequency of the chief executive turnover and the singleparty dominance persistence:H5: Regimes with more frequent chief executive turnover have a longerduration of single-party dominance.The third chapter provides an empirical assessment of theoretical hypothesesthrough multivariate statistical analysis, including correlation analysis, regressionanalysis, survival analysis.Based on the results of the multivariate statistical analysis, the theoreticalmodel of the research was evaluated as quite efficient in explaining the persistenceof single-party dominance.
Two predictors have a statistically significant effects onthe single-party dominance persistence - the level of electoral support for the rulingparty’s competitors and the prior experience with electoral democracy. All controlvariables were statistically insignificant.Thus, the following theoretical hypotheses were confirmed:1) H3: Regimes with a higher electoral support for the ruling party’s competitorshave a shorter duration of single-party dominance;2) H4: Regimes with prior experience with electoral democracy have a longerduration of single-party dominance than regimes without prior experiencewith electoral democracy.25The Conclusion summarizes the results of the dissertation and outlines theprospects for further research.PublicationsThe results of the study have been presented in the following publications:Publications in peer-reviewed journals1.
Poroshin A.V. Vliyanie konstitutsionnogo dizayna na ustoychivostodnopartiynogo dominirovaniya (in Russian, ‘Influence of the constitutionaldesign on longevity of single-party dominance’) // Vestnik Permskogouniversiteta. Seriya «Politologiya». 2017. Vol. 1. P. 87-97.2. Poroshin A.V. Rol’ dominantnoy partii v regulirovanii etnicheskikhkonfliktov: Primer Malayzii (in Russian, ‘Dominant party’s role in ethnicconflict management: The case of Malaysia’) // Politicheskaya nauka. 2016.Vol.
1. P. 176-185.3. Poroshin A.V. Rezhim s dominantnoy partiey kak perspektiva politicheskoytransformatsii postkommunisticheskikh gosudarstv (in Russian, ‘Dominantparty regime as perspective for political transformation of post-communiststates’) // Politicheskaya nauka. 2014. Vol. 3. P. 232-248.Publications in other journals1. Poroshin A.V. Avtoritarnye rezhimy s dominantnoy partiey: osnovnyesvoystva i faktory ustoychivosti (in Russian, ‘Dominant party authoritarianregimes: key characteristics and reasons for stability’) // Biznes. Obshchestvo.Vlast. 2011. Vol. 7.
P. 156-178.26Approbation of researchThe contents and results of the study have been presented at the followingconferences:1. 24th World Congress of Political Science. Poznań, Poland. 27.07.2016. Topicof the paper: Impact of Constitutional Design on Durability of Single-PartyDominance.2.
2016 ECPR Graduate Student Conference. Tartu, Estonia. 12.07.2016. Topicof the paper: Impact of Effective Number of Parties on Durability of SingleParty Dominance.3. 7th International Academic Conference for Students and Graduate Students‘Statistical Methods for Analysis of the Economy and Society’. 18.05.2016.Topic of the paper: Impact of Electoral Competition on Single-PartyDominance Persistence.4. 1st Inter-University Student Conference on Political Science. Moscow,Russia.
05.03.2011. Topic of the paper: Dominant Party AuthoritarianRegimes: Key Characteristics and Reasons for Stability.5. Academic Seminar ‘Political Parties and Political Competition in Democraticand Undemocratic Regimes’. Moscow, Russia. 16.04.2010. Topic of thepaper: ‘United Russia’: a Problem of Party Ideological Identification.6. International Academic Conference ‘The Crisis of European SocialDemocracy: Roots, Evidences, Solutions. Moscow, Russia.
19.02.2010.Topic of the paper: ‘Just Russia’: Significance of Social-Democratic Identity.27.
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