Диплом (1233194), страница 11
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Relations with banks directly affect the further possibilities of the enterprise. In connection with the high cost of production and complex equipment capability of branch, companies are forced to involve continuously capitals from outside. In this connection, the relationship with the bank may promote the development of enterprises as well as lead to a reduction in production volumes and even bankruptcy.
Indirect impact factors affect not only on us but also on all elements of a working environment, creating the certain conditions in the market. Conditions, created international legal provision, affects not only the availability of world markets for the entry of Russian companies, but also inhibit over-supply in the market of foreign participants.
State policy in industrial and transport areas dictates a range of possibilities and restrictions for companies to work successfully.
Smart policy and transport makes different kinds of transportation mutually beneficial partners allows efficient use of passenger flow, avoiding competition among themselves. The competent policy in the field of the industry and transport makes various types of transport mutually beneficial partners, allows to efficient use of passenger traffic volume and to avoid competition among themselves.
The level of innovative development of economy and innovation in air transport allow significantly to reduce the speed of service due to advanced technologies, to improve the quality of products and services, to cut down costs at the expense due to the latest developments. However, innovation in the sector is not always conducive to business. Development can be as in the field of, accompanying activity of aviation enterprises, and in the areas capable completely to replace or supersede participants from the market. For example, the discovery of less expensive type of fuel, development of new more efficient aircraft, or the development of alternative modes of transport, able to replace air transport. In this connection, it is necessary to monitor and to provide for all contingencies of the given factor, as well as to smooth its influence on the activity due to own innovative projects and the researches raising efficiency of activity of the enterprise. Factors of background impact also operate in the market and are indirect for some companies. However, at any moment factors of background impact can change into a working environment, under influence of those or other circumstances developing in the market in a specific time period.
The political situation, regardless of favorable conditions, may or may not cause harm to the company, but it may entail several consequences, ultimately affecting the activities of the enterprise.
Although the demographic policy is the background factor of impact, but directly influences activity of air transport. Shifts in the ratio generations, levels of birth rate finally lead to the quantity of the solvent population and as consequence, to the quantity of the future consumers of sold products or services.
Geographical situation of the country has an impact on the market, due to technological difficulties in the industry. The landscape, environment and extent of the territory can affect fuel consumption, difficulty level of the flights, lack of alternative types of transport, the presence of competitors or the level of development of business or tourism.
Technological accidents can lead to a decrease of passenger flow to the area, the solvency of the population and living standards. They also can lead to demographic and political crises. In case of direct relationship of technogenic accidents to the enterprise, it is possible decrease in a level of reputation of the enterprise, loss of the status in the market and even a full output from branch.
Endogenous risk factors relate to the internal environment of the company.
The level of equipment capability of enterprise, the availability of new technologies affect formation of a production factor.
The competent policy building of technological processes and equipment in a timely fashion with the latest equipment, enables the enterprise operate and
The competent policy of technological processes design and implementation by the latest technological equipment in time, provide the enterprise to operate successfully and to expand production capacity.
Personnel policy and management of air company play a key role in creation of a favorable climate in the workplace, coherence between departments, the high level of qualification of the personnel.
Fiscal policy affects the company's dependence on third-party organizations, the funding of all units of homogeneous production, the degree of dependence of the enterprise from the fluctuations of the national currency on the world market.
The level of costs at the production and realization of direct influence on the final cost of the services, and as a result, the attractiveness to the consumer. It is necessary to try to minimize costs at each stage of production and reduce as much as possible participants from production chain, up to the implementation phase.
For airlines, one of the leading roles played by the quality of products or services. As the basic product is transportation its consumption is carried out in an instant of manufacture and as consequence, quality of the provided transportation always should be top-level to involve the consumer in repeated purchase.
All the listed factors continuously affect activity of the enterprises, however a degree of influence of this or that factor depends on the specific situation which have developed in the market in the given time interval.
At the moment the political situation has passed in the factor of a working environment and renders direct negative influence on activity of aviation enterprises. Fluctuations in exchange rates lead to a situation, in which company cannot bear the obligations on leasing payments any more as their size in some times exceeds earlier the stipulated level. To cover losses of an aviation enterprise are compelled to lay costs in cost of the tariff, that to lower appeal of transportations to the population.
The economy is in a condition of crisis that leads to the deterioration of living and level of solvency of the population, which affects the amount of passenger traffic. The low level of national currency in the world market leads to reorientation of tourism to a home market, that significantly reduces a routing network and quantity of participants in the market. Complex political relations between countries create difficulties for international transport, activities of international alliances that put into question the intergovernmental agreements in the field of civil aviation. In addition, instability and negative market sentiment put into question the very possibility of implementation of international transport.
To reduce the impact of risk factors on the activity of airlines they should be regularly assessed and calculate these factors, to monitor the ever-changing situation in the market and respond to fluctuations.
1.2 Methods of risk assessment of an aviation enterprise
According to the classification of V.P. Buyanov, diversity of methods for analysing and evaluating risks affecting the company can be represented graphically (picture 1.2)
Each of the current methods for the analysis of risk and uncertainty has its scope and its procedures, which largely determine the capabilities of the method. As part of this work, the methods most commonly used in practice for analysis of risk and uncertainty:
statistical method;
peer review; method
method for constructing decision tree;
method analogies; combined method .
Picture 1.2 The structure of risk analysis techniques in economic activity
Statistical risk assessment involves a series of procedures that depend on a particular situation. Synthesis of existing approaches suggests a common sequence of statistical risk assessment, consisting of eleven blocks (7 analytic, 4 logical) (picture 1.3).
Picture 1.3 The general sequence of statistical risk assessment
When using the method of analogy apply database on risk similar projects or transactions, research design and survey agencies. Received data are processed for the identification of dependencies in the completed projects in order to take into account possible risks when implementing your project or transaction.
In the case where you know all of the steps to be taken when making decisions, use the decision tree. The key point of the method is in a construction of all versions of decisions. This method is called decision tree. Subjective and objective assessments of possible events correlate using the branches of a tree. Thus possible outcomes are taken into account. Following along the constructed branches, estimate each way, and then choose on what it is possible to receive the greatest profit.
Application of this method allows you to quantify the risk of harm (i.e. predict risk and security) as a result of the activities of the airline in the face of uncertainty, insufficient or total lack of information. In addition, it should be noted the possibility of combinations of different trigger events that may entail adverse event and the onset of damage, as well as prediction and assessment of the risk of damage to different scenarios.
The most commonly used method is a method of expert estimations. Expert methods for analysis of risk and uncertainty are attracting professionals to make judgments about the problem and then flattening results and proposals on the basis of which the system and draws conclusions .
This method usually wins where you need to solve a problem that requires a broad spectrum of knowledge, different points of view (sometimes contradictory), where there is no strict need for quantitative assessments [1].
This method can be graphically represented as an algorithm (picture 1.4).
Risk assessment of the airline is one of the most important stages of the entrepreneurial risk management. It is the assessment of the possible risks or threats depends on development of complex of measures aimed to prevent and minimize the risk.
Picture 1.4 The General sequence of allocation of emergent properties
The feasibility of each of the techniques depends on the source data, their calculation and analysis.
Impact assessment gives the enterprise a clear notion about the dependence on one or another factor, thereby giving an opportunity to smooth out the impact long before a risky situation.
1.3 Technology risk management of the airline
For the successful functioning of enterprises need not only to be able to assess the degree of risk, but also to predict it, build its further work on risk management and retrieving additional profits from risky situations.
Any organization in the process of forming its activities when creating a risk management system should bear in mind that the risks may have strategic and tactical basis (picture 1.5). This type of risk is connected with the future of an organization, with the problems which have no clear view at the moment.
Picture 1.5 Strategic and tactical risks
Antirecession policy aimed at overcoming the negative phenomena, restructuring the production and recovery of enterprises, includes the development of a multidimensional strategy that is often associated with strategic planning.
The more business or business combinations, the more difficult will be the structure of the risk field. The farther into the future leaves planning, the insecure are the source data.
According to A. Chandler, the strategy is 'a definition of basic long-term goals and objectives of the enterprise and the approval of actions needed to achieve those goals.
In risk management risks associated with the structure plan, taking into account the possibility of transition in motion toward the goal from one alternative to another.
The strategy that takes into account risk is not an abstract thing but a strong business concept, combined with a set of real actions that could lead to the creation of a real competitive advantage, able to be stored for a long time. During the control, you can select some special characteristics of the strategy that takes into account risk :
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The process of developing the strategy does not complete any immediate effect. Typically, it ends with the establishment of general guidelines that take into account the dynamics of risk fields and characterized by growth and strengthening the position of the firm.Formulated a strategy should be used to develop strategic projects, methods of search. The role of search strategy is to concentrate on specific parts or sections.
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The need for this strategy eliminates, once the real course of events displays the Organization at the desired development, with the risk of 'care' with trends becomes unlikely.
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In the process of formulating strategies you cannot anticipate all possibilities and all the risks that will arise in the formulation and implementation of specific project activities. Therefore, you use the incomplete, inaccurate, and often contradictory information on the various alternatives and potential risks.
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With the emergence of more accurate information may be questioned the validity of the original strategy. Therefore, you must have a feedback to ensure strategy reformulation in time.
Unfortunately, most of organizations today simply do not use the official plan to protect themselves against risks. In the case of new organizations or small businesses, entrepreneurs simply cannot devote time and sufficient knowledge to create risky plans. Mature organizations see no point in risk management due to the fact that they have been for so long without it. They are not interested in investing time to prepare the plan and monitoring its implementation.
Although risk management promises many benefits:
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Encourages managers to think about the future constantly;
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Leads the organization to more coordinated of actions for achieving the goals;
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Leads to the establishment of performance indicators for follow-up;
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Prejudge the precise definition of tasks, policies, mission;
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Gives an advantage in responding to the changing environment.
Risk manadgment is a management process of creating and maintaining a strategic fit between the mission, objectives, potential risks and chances of the organization.
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