Диссертация (1146854), страница 39
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This often leads to youth unemployment since graduates can not find a job inaccordance with the received major.One of the most important ways for both education system efficiency and graduates’ employability levelincrease in the Russian Arctic Zone shall become training systems’ clear orientation to meet the economyactual demand. This is possible only due to requirement needs’ objective forecast of Arctic macro-economicregion that takes into account strategic development priorities of the territories, specific nature of work andleading employers’ requirements.2521 ROLE OF SECONDARY VOCATIONAL EDUCATION IN THE PROVISION OF REQUIREMENTS NEEDSFOR RUSSIAN ARCTIC ZONERussian Arctic Zone (hereinafter - RF AZ) enterprises are already experiencing a shortage of qualified workers.A few years later, when the Arctic projects break out, this deficit will increase inevitably.Main source of regional economy development for qualified staff is secondary vocational educationorganizations (hereinafter - SVEO) functioning in the regions.
Demanded specialists training with required skillsis the main task of secondary vocational education organizations, especially in current economic situation. It isobvious that the higher proportion of demanded specialists training will improve graduates’ employability.To analyze the potential of regional SVE systems in the AZ RF in the context of strategic goals assigned, theeconomy forecast needs was developed.
The calculation is based on a combined approach involving acombination of macroeconomic forecasting techniques and employers’ surveys [1, 2, 3, 4]. According to themethodology there are three components released for annual additional economy needs:• need "to replace" - linked with inevitable employees’ natural retirement age: retirement, disability, etc.;.• need "to growth" - linked with the growth / decline of current production corresponding to job placesopening / closing;• need "to invest the projects" - related to investment projects implementation and necessity tocomplement with new staff.An important feature of applied methodology is that the predicted values in recruitment needs for SVE arecalculated in accordance with the strategic documents of each of the region of the Arctic zone in particular, andthe macro-region as a whole.
The development strategy for industries and industrial clusters is also taken intoaccount. It helps to consider regional priorities of economic and social development while developing theforecast.In order to clarify forecasting parameters as well as adjust both current and future regions’ recruitment needs forthe Russian Arctic Zone a survey of leading employers’ enterprises was conducted engaged that pursue alarge-scale projects for the development of the Arctic.Employers’ survey revealed the age of natural retirement, new job places creation, investment projectsimplementation, as well as the dominance of rotational basis work. Thus, according to the results of theemployers’ survey, the employees’ retirement age at the Russian Arctic Zone was about 2.3%, which is lowerthan in Russia - 4%.
Probably the younger population contributes to lower figures of retirement. In addition, it isrevealed that there is a dominance of rotational basis work in all Russian Federation Arctic regions, therefore,30% of the additional requirement needs can be covered just by rotational workers.Also it became clear from the survey, that employers are projecting additional recruitment need related to newjob places creation in the future in terms of the most popular occupations. Identified perspective occupationscontributed both to current and future recruitment needs adjustment.Final forecast figures agreed with regional executive authorities in the sphere of education are presented in theTable 1.Table 1.
Forecast needs for skilled workers with secondary vocational education in the regions of the RussianArctic Zoje, 2015-2020., Pers..Russian Arctic ZoneregionsArctic Zone total20152016201720182019202024 86031 15025 83124 45824 67724 619253Yamalo-Nenetsky АD7 7007 7207 8107 8407 9207 960Arkhangelskaya oblast*6 68012 7507 1905 9506 0906 030Murmanskaya oblast*6 0385 9436 0686 0786 0796 084Krasnoyarsky kray*2 2372 2752 3652 3432 3482 338Republic of Komi1 0661 044999954922910Nenetsky АD*595595600575580590Chukotsky АD*345593634575595570199230165143143137Republic(Yakutia)ofSakha* There is no data on investment component of the annual additional recruitment needIn general, the forecast for the period 2015 to 2020 for the Russian Arctic zone recruitment need in SVE isstable enough and is about 25 000.
Despite high investment attractiveness of the Russian Federation Arcticzone, is was found that the recruitment need in SVE conditioned on by new job places creation is insignificantand about 2 000 annually (about 8% of the total recruitment need for the Russian Arctic Zone) .Currently, only three of eight regions are implementing or planning to implement investment projects aimed atnew job places creation. Region-leader in job places creation under investment projects is Yamalo-NenetskyAutonomous District – by the year 2055 it is planned to implement 15 investment projects with additional 20 000job places creation.The forecast of recruitment needs is important from the point of view of training system development, decisionmaking on "whom to train?", "How?", "Are region’s internal resources enough to meet the demand? ".Main source of annual additional recruitment needs covering and selected priorities maintenance for socioeconomic development of the Russian Arctic zone is graduates’ flow from vocational education system annuallyentering the labor market.
Forecast calculations on SVE programmes in the Russian Arctic Zone are based onstate statistical reporting data for the retrospective period, taking into account length of schooling and students’drop-out rate for various reasons [5]. The proportion of the annual additional recruitment needs with SVEgraduates is presented in the Table 2.Table. 2. Proportion of the annual additional recruitment needs with SVE graduates, 2015-2018 ,%Russian Arctic Zone regions2015201620172018Arctic Zone total47,639,148,451,7Murmanskaya oblast55,160,363,966,2Yamalo-Nentsky AD28,729,028,228,8Arkhangelskaya oblast64,232,759,771,3Krasnoyarsky kray39,239,837,237,5Republic of Komi49,749,350,653,5Nenetsky АD*42,043,740,842,6Chukotsky АD*117,1109,2106,9114,5254Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)39,238,753,962,2The proportion of recruitment needs of the Arctic zone with secondary vocational education graduates is 50%on average.
On the territories of the Russian Arctic Zone this figure varies: so for the Chukotka AutonomousDistrict demand is fully guaranteed by the students’ graduation, and for the Yamalo-Nenetsky AutonomousDistrict is only 30%.It is important to emphasize that regional system of secondary vocational education shall not ensure 100%requirements needs coverage. There’s a number of objective reasons – number of unemployed, migrants, andother institutional population, possibility of inter-sectoral labor flow, retraining, and so on.
A large segment inblue-collar workers’ training and retraining for the Russian Arctic Zone holds corporate educationalorganizations under the major enterprises. In addition, for majority of the regions of the Russian Arctic zoneare exercising rotational-based work which is more effective and widespread [6].2 QUALITATIVE AND STRUCTURAL MATCHING OF TRAINING VOLUMES FOR THE REQUIREMENTSNEEDS AND STRATEGIC PRIORITIES IMPLEMENATION IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC ZONEAnalysis of recruitment needs of the Russian Arctic Zone with SVE in the context of aggregated groups isacquiring its special significance from the perspective of comprehensive assessment of education systemcapacity since it helps to evaluate how the SVE system capabilities meet the macro-economy needs in terms ofnecessary specialists’ number provision for the professional-qualification structure.Due to general lack of graduates’ needs covering in SVE system of the Russian Arctic Zone as a whole, mostspecialties’ groups will also demonstrate graduates’ shortage.
At the same time, aggregated groups aresignificantly differentiated in terms of needs coverage for the Russian Arctic Zone in graduates who studied atthe SVE programmes (Table 3).Data in the Table 3 indicates that 4 specialty groups out of 34 are characterized by graduates’ excess(percentage coverage over 100%). Taking into account other sources for the recruitment needs coverage, thesituation is not that critical for groups with coverage of 60-100%, it will not cause serious staff shortage. In thiscategory a group of socio-humanitarian majors is dominated.Negative factor is that the category with 20-60% coverage (level which is already characterized by aconsiderable graduates’ shortage) includes most of the majors for the priorities implementation of theStrategic Development of the Russian Arctic Zone.As to other groups of specialties, there is still a significant lack of training in SVE.
Often this is due to the factthat the training for these specialty groups in SVE organizations located in the Russian Arctic Zone is notcarried out at all. Among them, we’d like to highlight the group «05.00.00 - Earth Sciences" which trains forsuch occupations as gydromet observer, meteorological technician, technician-hydrologist. The role of naturaland meteorological factors in sustainable economic activity in the Arctic is very large. Currently, 70 major255meteorological stations operate in the Arctic, almost 60% of them are difficult to approach.
Due to the lack ofpolar meteorologists people have to work at meteorological stations for two years without holidays.Table 3. Groups of specialties and recruitment needs coverage share with SVE graduates for the Russian ArcticZone, 2016Recruitment needscoverage share withCode and title of the specialtyIncluding training for strategic prioritiesSVE graduates forgroupdevelopmentthe Russian ArcticZone29.00.00 - Consumer goods09.00.00 – Computer Science andindustry, 51.00.00 - CulturalMore than 100%Engineering, 19.00.00 – Industrialstudies and socio-culturalecology and biotechnologyprojects14.00.00 – Nuclear energy andtechnologies,40.00.00 – Law Studies35.00.00 – Agriculture, forestry, fishery,07.00.00 – Architecture,60-100%08.00.00 – Constructing technique and53.00.00 – Musical Art, 46.00.00technologies– History and Archeology,38.00.00 – Economy andmanagement43.00.00 – Service and Tourism, 23.00.00- Machinery and land transporttechnology,54.00.00 – Fine and applied art,13.00.00 – Electricity and heat power,36.00.00 – Veterinary and44.00.00 – Education and Pedagogicalzootechny, 26.00.00 –ofStudies,Shipbuilding and marine15.00.00- Mechanical engineering,20-60%transport technology, 42.00.00 –34.00.00 - Nursing, 31.00.00 – ClinicalMedia, information science andmedicine,library science, 49.00.00 –33.00.00 - Pharmacy,Physical training and sport11.00.00 - Electronics, radio engineeringand communication systems, 21.00.00 Applied geology, mining, oil and gasindustry and geodesy18.00.00 – Chemical technologies,20.00.00 – Technospere security and39.00.00 – Sociology and socialenvironmental engineeringwork,Less than 20%05.00.00 - Earth Sciences,22.00.00 – Materials technology,12.00.00 - Photonics, tool engineering,32.00.00 – Life science andoptical and biotechnical systems andpreventive medicinetechnologies256The gap between recruitment needs and SVE graduates in terms of aggregated specialty groups is different forvarious regions of the Russian Arctic Zone, and associated with different characteristics of their industrialcapacity and economy priorities.For example, in Yamalo-Nenetsky Autonomous District, one of the most dynamic and investment-attractiveregions of the Arctic, as well as the Russian Arctic Zone as a whole, graduates’ surplus in SVE system isobserved in such occupations / groups of specialties as 29.00.00 – “Consumer goods industry", " 51.00.00 –“Cultural studies and socio-cultural projects", " 19.00.00 – “Industrial ecology and biotechnology".
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