The.Economist.2007-02-10 (966424), страница 11
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A recent USA Today/Gallup poll found that barely one in fiveRepublicans knew that he supported abortion choice and civil unions for gay couples. One in fiveRepublicans, when informed of this, said that those views put supporting him out of the question.But is the problem insuperable? Mr Giuliani has three big things going for him. He was a highly successfulmayor of New York, precisely because he grabbed hold of a monument to liberalism-gone-wild—with abloated bureaucracy, an institutionalised underclass and a soaring crime rate—and reformed it byapplying solidly conservative principles.
As Steven Malanga of the Manhattan Institute points out, he putlaw and order above everything else (instituting a “zero tolerance” approach to petty crime, forinstance); tried to unleash the private sector (including abolishing or cutting 23 taxes); and took onvested interests, from teachers' unions to the welfare bureaucracy.
The result was an urban revolution:the murder rate fell by 67%, tourists returned and the private sector boomed.In fact, Mr Giuliani can boast a solidly conservative record on all sorts of things that matter to the base.He served in the Reagan administration's Justice Department along with John Roberts, George Bush'sappointee as chief justice of the Supreme Court. He was an aggressive special prosecutor. He trimmedaffirmative action, effectively ended racial quotas at the City University of New York and championedschool choice.His second big plus is that most Americans—including most social conservatives—view Mr Giuliani aboveall as the hero of September 11th 2001.
Mr Giuliani became “America's mayor” that day because hisdecisiveness contrasted with the administration's dithering: he rushed downtown as soon as the firstaeroplane hit and took command amid the confusion. Mr Giuliani's halo has not faded since in the waythat Mr Bush's has.His third advantage is that the religious right is in the doldrums. Last November, as the socially liberalArnold Schwarzenegger stormed to re-election in California, social conservatives bombed. Rick Santorumbarely scraped 40% of the vote in the Senate race for Pennsylvania, a dreadful result for a two-termsenator.
And conservatives lost a series of ballot initiatives—on abortion in South Dakota and California,stem-cell research in Missouri and gay marriage in Arizona.What's the alternative?It is unclear who social conservatives would rally around if they wanted to kneecap the front-runner.John McCain? Many of them dislike him almost as much as Mr Giuliani. Mitt Romney? A Mormon who hasflip-flopped on both abortion and civil unions, and said he was “effectively pro-choice” as recently as twoyears ago. Mike Huckabee? A man with no national standing, who has recently been savaged by theconservative Club for Growth for raising taxes and spending as governor of Arkansas.
Sam Brownback?His candidacy would probably hand the Democrats a lock on all three branches of government.Mr Giuliani will clearly have a difficult time with his party's diehards. He will also face other problems. Heis an abrasive New Yorker in a country that tends to elect hail-fellow-well-met types like Ronald Reaganand Bill Clinton. He also has a goodly number of skeletons in his closet besides his liberal social views: hewas a close friend of Bernard Kerik, a former New York City police commissioner whose nomination forthe position of secretary for homeland security was laughed out of court amid allegations about an illegalnanny, questionable business dealings and extra-marital affairs.But he can still make a good fist of it.
He already has a lot of conservative fans—his performance on theFox News channel this week went down like a dream—and he has the stuff to win over many more. Itmeans a bit of backsliding: he will have to revise his position on guns if he is to succeed in the West andthe South. But in general it means trumpeting his strengths. He needs to persuade people that hisconservative credentials on crime and terrorism trump his heretical views on other issues. And he needsto point out that he has the best chance of keeping Hillary Clinton out of the White House. He topsalmost all the polls; and as Republicans make up their minds over the next year, they may end up payingmore attention to such numbers than to the dead-end rhetoric of Mr Jeffrey and Mr Perkins.Copyright © 2007 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.About sponsorshipHaitiBuilding a reluctant nationFeb 8th 2007 | PORT-AU-PRINCEFrom The Economist print editionEyevineRené Préval (pictured below) and the UN have made modest progress but have yet to turnHaiti into a viable countryGet article backgroundTHE United Nations is rebuilding a house.
A couple of soldiers mix cement on the street, lifting it up by abackhoe to their colleagues who use it as mortar, placing concrete block on top of concrete block. Thehouse is tiny, and cramped inside; there is barely room for the gun emplacements that face every whichway from the second storey, pointing out over sandbags which are being replaced by the concrete blocks.It is the newest outpost of the United Nations Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (known as MINUSTAH from itsinitials in French). Brazilian troops under the command of Colonel Cláudio Barroso Magno took over thehouse in a 2am raid in late January.
It was part of an effort by UN troops, begun a month earlier, to setup strongpoints in Cité Soleil, a slum district of Haiti's capital which has been under the control ofcriminal gangs for years.This tenuous foothold of law and order is a microcosm of Haiti's snail-like progress a year after RenéPréval was elected as president of the poorest and most lawless country of the Americas. The electioncame two years after the ousting of the thuggish socialist regime of Jean-Bertrand Aristide at the handsof a rebel band and American and French troops.For a failing state, the election was a success.
Mr Préval, a moderate former president who was once anally of Mr Aristide, won just over 50% of the vote. But he did not form a government until June, afterlegislative elections. Local elections followed in December, with more due in March. All this voting givesHaitians the chance of a fresh start, but it has also diverted resources from other priorities.The most pressing issue remains crime.
The government tried at first to negotiate with the criminalgangs. But kidnaps, assaults and drug-trafficking rose. A UN scheme under which those who hand inguns get job training has few takers. The new, tougher policy is aimed at regaining control of places likeCité Soleil, a district of more than 200,000 people which has been too dangerous for aid groups to enter.The new UN presence there is meant in part to get the gangs to react, says Colonel Magno. In that, atleast, it is working. There are nightly attacks on the strongpoints; the concrete blocks are pockmarkedwith bullet scars.
It may also be having a wider effect: January saw only a third as many kidnappings asDecember, according to MINUSTAH. “We can end kidnapping” by the summer, says Colonel Magno.This modest progress underlines that the UN force of 6,700 soldiers and 1,700 police—mainly from LatinAmerica but including troops from Jordan and Nepal and police from China—will be needed for a longwhile yet. The government is rebuilding a national police force, but it is slow work. The police numberonly about 6,000 for a rugged country of 8.5m people. Another 500 or so are graduating every sixmonths from the police academy run by the UN. The new police have been vetted in an effort to avoidthe corruption of the country's past gendarmeries.But the whole judicial system also needs reform.
According to International Crisis Group, a Brusselsbased organisation, 96% of the inmates of the main national prison have not been tried. Past efforts byinternational donors to achieve judicial reform failed. Now parliament is discussing, without urgency,plans to vet judges and increase their salaries, currently $200-500 a month.Mr Préval's main achievement has been to get the budget approved in the legislature. His party, itself amakeshift coalition, has only a fifth of the seats in the lower house and a third in the upper.
The mainobstacle is not partisanship, but individualism. Legislators spent several of the past few weeks trying toget a policeman sacked for inspecting a congressman's car (he found illegal weapons).Even in Port-au-Prince's richer suburbs, rubbish fills the streets.
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