The.Economist.2007-02-10 (966424), страница 14
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No one wants to vote during the monsoon-flooded summer. Lessunderstandably, the administration says it needs to issue fraud-proof identity cards, which could take ayear. Some of its supporters say they want a unity government, perhaps led by Muhammad Yunus, thewinner of this year's Nobel peace prize. Such measures indicate that the army would quite like anextended rule, albeit behind a curtain.The loathing of the begumsHowever long the pause, Bangladesh's democracy is probably unreformable, from without or within, whileMrs Zia and Sheikh Hasina, known as “the two begums”, still rule their roosts. Bangladeshi politics arevicious, a fight for state patronage made desperate by the knowledge that none of the loot will be shared.Battles between stave-wielding followers of the two parties have marred each election since 1991, whendemocracy was restored after countrywide protests forced the army dictator, Hossain Muhammad Ershad,to stand down. That was the only time the two ladies co-operated—and practically the last time theyspoke to each other.Late last year, more than 40 people were killed in clashes linked to the aborted election.
The violence wasorganised by the two parties and Jamaat-e-Islami, the bigger of the BNP's two Islamist allies. As always,the fighting was the projection of rows between the two begums.Their rivalry is based in fathomless feelings of personal grievance. Sheikh Hasina inherited the leadershipof the League, Bangladesh's oldest party, from her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. He was the country'sindependence leader, and was assassinated in a 1975 army coup along with 17 of her closest relatives.Sheikh Hasina accused Mrs Zia's husband, General Ziaur Rahman, of involvement in the coup. GeneralZia, as he was known, then became army chief, and declared himself president in 1977.
He was himselfassassinated in 1981, in which Mrs Zia says the AL had a hand. After General Zia's death, Mrs Ziainherited his party, the BNP.Whether or not the begums believe these allegations is almost irrelevant. Their leadership claims arebased on their personal loss and inherited martyrdom, of which their feuding is a constant reminder.When the AL won power in 1996, Sheikh Hasina had school textbooks rewritten to stress her father's partin the liberation struggle.
When Mrs Zia returned in 2001, she changed the textbooks back.Their grievances are multiplying. In 2004 Sheikh Hasina was fortunate to survive a grenade attack whichkilled 21 of her supporters. Insurgents, said to be sheltered by the army and the BNP, were to blame. In2005 both parties were attacked in a terrorist campaign, including suicide bombings by a jihadist groupcalled Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). Its seven leaders were arrested after the explosion of 459bomblets in 63 of the country's 64 districts, all within 40 minutes. Sheikh Hasina accused the BNP and theJamaat-e-Islami of having sheltered the JMB. A cabinet minister pointed a finger at India, the AL'straditional ally.
Six of the JMB's leaders are due to be hanged on February 17th.The ideological basis for either party is a faded memory. The AL was once leftist and secular; the BNP,which was formed to oppose it, slightly to the right, gently Islamic, and close to the army and Pakistan.But in December the League made an election pact with radical Islamists, and in the 2001 election theprevious Indian government backed the BNP. Asked whether there was any difference between the twoparties, Moudud Ahmed, the former BNP law minister, said: “Yes and no, apparently not, not in policy, butthere is a thin line, a difference in attitude.”Over the past 16 years, during which the two parties ruled alternately, each of their governments misruledmore extravagantly than its immediate predecessor. The BNP stands accused of massive looting,especially by businessmen close to Mrs Zia's eldest son and presumed successor, Tarique Rahman.Because the begums do not trust each other to organise fair elections, Bangladesh's outgoing governmenthas had to hand over to an independent caretaker government three months before a poll is due.
Sincethis arrangement was introduced in 1996, both parties have striven to politicise the institutions, especiallythe judiciary, from which the caretakers are drawn. The BNP succeeded brilliantly. One electoralcommissioner, appointed by the caretaker government, had sought a BNP nomination for the election.The aborted campaign was dominated by a dispute over the composition of the caretaker government andthe electoral roll. On January 3rd the League and its 16 small allies, including a party led by GeneralErshad, withdrew, vowing to sabotage the vote—though polling suggests that they might actually havewon.The caretaker arrangement, designed to bolster failing democracy, eased the army's intervention.
Fearinga murderous election, Western diplomats issued no rebuke. Indeed the army was nudged to intervene bythe United Nations, which gave warning on January 10th that it might reconsider its peacekeepingcontracts with the army if it participated in a biased poll.The threat was probably hollow. No Fijian or Pakistani blue helmet was rusticated after coups in theircountries. But it remains a worry for the army.
Its UN missions are a lucrative pension scheme, currentlyearning 11,000 soldiers around $150m a year. The army considers them proof that it has restored areputation badly tarnished by General Ershad's dreadful rule. With that in mind, there is at least areasonable chance that it will not overreach again.But it will do its damnedest to force the ladies to quit. The promised arrests, especially if Mr Rahman isincluded, as senior officers say he will be, look designed for this. Bangladeshis have named this strategythe “Musharraf solution”, after the success of Pakistan's uniformed leader, Pervez Musharraf, in chasinghis civilian rivals into exile. But Bangladesh's army is less adept at political meddling than Pakistan's.
Andthe two ladies, together commanding 90% of the vote, are more powerful than either Benazir Bhutto orNawaz Sharif, Pakistan's ousted and exiled former prime ministers. Failing an unimaginable rush of publicspirit on their part, or a long period of military rule, one or the other is still likely to be Bangladesh's nextleader.Islamist shadowsFears have been raised that the Islamists, both mainstream and a more radical margin, will profit from thehiatus. The JMB campaign gave Western countries a fright and brought a slew of unsubstantiated reportsthat al-Qaeda leaders were in Bangladesh.
It does seem unlikely that the JMB, comprising fundamentalistpeasants and rickshaw-wallahs from northern Bangladesh, acted alone. Adding to suspicions, its leader,Sheikh Abdur Rahman , once worked for the visa department of the Saudi Arabian embassy in Dhaka. Butthere has been no proven Islamist terrorism in Bangladesh since the JMB leaders were arrested, whichsuggests that Bangladeshis lack enthusiasm for such sins. Soon after it was revealed that the JMB leadershad once been linked to the Jamaat, voters in a by-election in northern Bangladesh picked a Hinduindependent candidate over the Jamaat's man (both the BNP and the AL had boycotted the poll).The way that Bangladesh practises Islam is pretty moderate: after all, its liberation struggle was, at onelevel, in defence of Bengal's secular traditions.
As a legacy of their entanglement with Pakistan,Bangladeshi Muslims are forbidden to drink alcohol—unless they have a doctor's note prescribing it fortheir health. This useful document can be bought over the counter in Dhaka's bars. In one such dive, itwas explained that the notes are a hangover from colonial days, when British doctors prescribed a littlecognac for colds.Nonetheless, like many Muslim countries, Bangladesh has moved towards a more bigoted Islam in recentdecades, propelled partly by its politics. With around 7% of the popular vote, the Jamaat has neverincreased its following. But, through shifting alliances, it has increased its influence. It had its first twoministers in the last government and 18 seats in the parliament.
Its violent student wing, Shibir, isrelatively strong, controlling the campuses of two of Bangladesh's three biggest universities, in Chittagongand Rajshahi. However, unlike its sister group in Pakistan, both the Jamaat and the more militant groupsare interested only in domestic politics. This, of course, could change.Bangladesh faces more concrete and pressing dangers than Islamic militancy. Its 145m people live on adelta twice the size of Ireland, 40% of which is flooded for three months of each year. It is desperatelyovercrowded.
By 2050, its population is projected to reach 250m. With almost half the country only inchesabove, or even below, sea-level, the prospect of climate change and rising seas is nightmarish. Around1% of agricultural land is lost to river erosion each year.When natural disasters arise, BNP and AL governments have both done well, with strong support from thearmy and NGOs. Taking measures to prevent such disasters is a different story.One illustration is Shirajganj, a town of 200,000 people, 120km (75 miles) north-west of Dhaka, on thewestern bank of the 10km-wide Brahmaputra river. In recent years the river has shifted westwards at afurious rate, last year seeping across Shirajganj's embankments.
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