Programming Java 2 Micro Edition for Symbian OS 2004 (779882), страница 71
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The rapid growth in the market for mobilephones is legendary. In 2003, there were over a billion mobile phonesin use and, for the first time, the number of mobile phones exceededthe number of fixed phones. As shown in Figure 8.1, annual sales arearound 400 million (sales dipped in 2002, but picked up again in 2003).Programming Java 2 Micro Edition on Symbian OS: A developer’s guide to MIDP 2.0. Martin de Jode 2004 Symbian Ltd ISBN: 0-470-09223-8396THE MARKET, THE OPPORTUNITIES AND SYMBIAN’S PLANSJava mobile phone sales/millions800700600Total mobile phonesTotal Java500Asia/PacificEurope400North America300Africa/Middle EastSouth America20010002002Figure 8.120032004200520062007Annual sales of mobile phones: total, by region and Java-compatible (source: ARC group).Total Java andnon Java250Java and total revenue byapplication group/$bnJava total200Java contentJava messaging150Java commerce100Java LBSJava industryapps50Java intranetaccess0200220032004200520062007Java informationservicesFigure 8.2 Revenue by application group (source: ARC group).Of particular interest to us, however, is that by 2006 we can expect thevast majority of mobile phones to support Java execution environments.These figures compare with PC sales of around 130 million per yearand an installed base of around 400 million, according to eWeek.com.Mobile phone manufacturers are including Java functionality in orderto generate revenue, which in turn requires that Java content is attractiveto end-users.
Figure 8.2 shows predictions for worldwide wireless datarevenues in excess of $100 billion by 2006 and that most of these revenueswill be generated by Java services and applications.THE WIRELESS JAVA MARKET397It is worth making a few comments on the above revenue estimates:• content covers areas such as standalone and multiplayer games,download, storage and playback of music, and video streamingand messaging• the market for location-based services (LBS) is significantly underestimated: a conservative estimate is that it will be worth more than$30 billion in 2007 (Location Based Services 2002, ARC Group)• games will be worth $4 billion in 2005 (the worldwide games marketfor PCs and consoles is $25 billion) according to The Times, 18April 2003.The above statistics suggest that Java consumer services will be wortharound $25–30 billion in 2005 (we’ll talk about such services in moredetail later).Generating the predicted revenues requires cooperation amongst theplayers in the value chain: content providers, operators, mobile phonemanufacturers and key technology providers must work together.8.2.2 Java’s SignificanceThe following pie charts indicate the importance of Java as a developmentlanguage on wireless devices in general and Symbian OS in particular.Figure 8.3 shows that the industry expects Java to be the most widelyused language on wireless devices in 2004.
Figures 8.4, 8.5 and 8.6 showPropriatary OS3%Linux8%BREW9%Java34%Palm11%Symbian13%Microsoft22%Figure 8.3Wireless applications to be developed in 2004, by language.398THE MARKET, THE OPPORTUNITIES AND SYMBIAN’S PLANSDeveloper2%Comms7%Business13%Consumer40%Games38%Figure 8.4Types of application on Symbian OS (all languages), at end of 2003.PersonalJava5%OPL3%Visual Basic18%C++55%MIDP19%Figure 8.5 Languages used to develop Symbian OS applications, at end of 2003.the applications and languages on Symbian OS, from internal Symbiandata.
Note that numbers for MIDP only cover MIDlets specifically soldor marketed for a Symbian OS phone: MIDlets that are not specificallydesigned for Symbian devices are not included.Figures 8.5 and 8.6 show that most Symbian applications today arewritten in C++, with MIDP 1.0 the second most common language.However, MIDP 2.0 is the preferred developer environment and its popularity can only increase as Symbian makes more functionality availableto Java developers.THE WIRELESS JAVA MARKETOPL6%399Visual Basic5%C++30%PersonalJava8%MIDP 1.020%MIDP 2.031%Figure 8.68.2.3Preferred languages used to develop Symbian OS applications.The Enterprise Market and the Correct Java ConfigurationWhen Symbian was first formed its main focus was on the consumermarket, simply because vastly more phones are sold to consumers thanto enterprises. However, in the last few years Symbian has been investingheavily in enterprise opportunities.Here are a few (non rigorous!) features of the enterprise market:• enterprise projects are high value for middleware vendors (such asIBM Websphere, BEA Weblogic, Oracle Application Server, Sun J2EE)• for the operators, mobile phone business users are low volume buthigh average revenue per user (ARPU); consumers are higher volumebut lower ARPU• although the enterprise market is large, manufacturers do not sellmany mobile phones into it• in the US, the growth in wireless devices is being driven by enterprise opportunities; growth in Europe and Asia was driven by theconsumer market• the popularity of WiFi in the US is fueled by business needs for mobileconnectivity, email in particular; Europe is promoting Bluetooth as alower cost, lower power, consumer-oriented alternative; adoption ofWiFi in Europe is less than in the US because of the focus on higherbandwidth wide area solutions such as UMTS rather than LAN.Symbian’s Java development is concentrated on MIDP and CLDC,together with the CLDC-compatible wireless Java profiles.
This approachis well-suited to the consumer market, even though Symbian OS phones400THE MARKET, THE OPPORTUNITIES AND SYMBIAN’S PLANShave the power and memory to run CDC-based Java technologies. Theemphasis on CLDC rather than CDC is for a number of reasons:• simpler, fewer and more consistent APIs reduces complexity for thedeveloper and increases developer productivity• the smaller number of APIs reduces the footprint, which helps toreduce manufacturing and maintenance costs.Nonetheless, the CDC stack (CDC, Foundation Profile and PersonalProfile or Personal Basis Profile) has a couple of significant roles:• porting existing enterprise applications from desktop to wirelessdevices, thus extending middleware, such as SAP or Oracle, outto mobile employees, which is made easier by the close relationshipbetween CDC and J2SE• creating vertical applications where CLDC does not provide thenecessary functionality.Both of these are relatively short-term opportunities; it is hard to see anytechnical limitations in CLDC that prevent its long-term use for consumeror enterprise segments.CLDC-based functionality is increasing as wireless JSRs are implemented, to the extent that there is very little functionality in CDC thatdoes not have a CLDC equivalent.
This, of course, implies that there aresome gaps and we will look at them later in Section 8.7.1.8.3 Meeting Market NeedsThis section identifies some of the key market requirements and Symbian’sapproach to meeting those requirements. We’ll look at these requirementsin terms of the value chain comprising consumers, enterprise users, mobilephone manufacturers, developers, operators and service providers.Consumer Requirements• games, utilities and simple services• more advanced added value services.Enterprise User Requirements• extension of the organization’s information systems to mobile workers.Service and Content Provider Requirements• cross-platform standards to maximize the market• rapid and reliable deployment of new servicesMEETING MARKET NEEDS401• security, PKI and Digital Rights Management solutions• a provisioning infrastructure.Developer Requirements• first class tools and SDKs• access to necessary functionality• performance.Operators• return on investment• personalization and branding.Mobile Phone Manufacturer Requirements• mass-market compatibility• time-to-market• a low bill of materials (this means keeping royalties down, minimizingmemory requirements and maximizing performance to allow a slower,and hence lower cost, processor).So how do we meet the needs of our customers? (If you are a developer,this means your customers as well as Symbian’s customers!) Here are fewideas to think about:• any application or service must add real value, either to the user’sleisure time by enhancing their lifestyle, or to their work• a service that expects the user to spend new money is a harderproposition to sell than one which displaces existing expenditure,even though disposable income is increasingFor example, young people spend less on confectionery and tobaccoto fund mobile phones and messaging in particular.
News servicesmay reduce the amount we spend on newspapers. Wireless shoppingwill reduce the amount we spend on fuel and car parking.• exploit untapped markets with higher disposable incomesMobile phone services have, at least in Europe and Japan, beendriven by the youth market downloading ringtones, wallpapers andgames. However, the disposable income of young people is relativelylimited. Middle-aged, middle-income groups have a higher disposableincome, though are generally more discerning in their expenditureand (usually!) look for clear benefits before purchasing a service.402THE MARKET, THE OPPORTUNITIES AND SYMBIAN’S PLANSAlso, do not forget older age groups: they have specific needs whichare not met by current mobile phones nor the associated services.On the other hand they frequently have access to funds, fewerfinancial commitments and significant leisure time.
Key requirementsare simplicity in getting going, ease of use and, most importantly, theservice must have a clear, easily understood, benefit and purpose.• look for subsidies for the service, perhaps through advertising byfinancial institutions or travel companies• deliver the service on all available channels: mobile phone, TV,set-top box, Web, etc. This provides the user with task continuity,allowing them to choose when and how to engage with the service.8.4 Providing Advanced ServicesWe’ve seen that simple games and utilities are expected to generateonly limited revenue.
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