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The experiments performed and their results on the whole gave the necessary basis for statement of the question on the application of the new procedure to the analysis of large social systems. The first attempt of such an analysis was made in papers: «Development of Ukraine: macrosocial approach [in Ukrainian] // Viche. – 1996. – No. 1. – P. 45-55; Ukraine – Europe – World: on the way of co-evolution [in Ukrainian] // Visnyk Kharkiv. Derzh. Univer. – 1999. – No. 433. – P. 13-16. The most integral conceptual exposition of the idea of this project was given in the final part of the scientific report «Social relativism or sociology of social changes» presented by one of the authors on October 22, 1998 at the conference hall of Vernadsky National Library of Ukraine (see Appendix 1). As a certain incentive to the beginning of an immediate development, we mention the decision of two public organizations (Ukrainian Social Innovation Society and Atlantic Council of Ukraine) and Information and Library Department of the Secretariat of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to initiate works on realization of the idea of the project. According to the adopted decision, the preparatory stage of development and, at the same time, the campaign on attraction of the attention of the scientific community including the west one.

From the first steps of the project statement, its working group informs the scientific community in a proper way about the course of implementation of the main idea. The project booklet (see Appendix 2) was spread among the institutes of the NAS of Ukraine and colleges of Ukraine. For the purpose of a search for foreign partners, the project announcement was spread at meetings of the Section of libraries and research services of parliaments of the world in the frameworks of the 65th Conference of the International Federation of Librarian Associations (August 1999, Bangkok, Thailand) and among the participants of the Conference of correspondents of the European Center of Parliament Studies and Documentation (October 1999, Bern, Switzerland). Special letters were sent to the Representatives of UNO in Ukraine and, in particular, the coordinator of the PRUNO project Mrs. Mridula Ghosh who expresses the readiness to render support to this project. The composition of the working group is presented in Appendix 3.

We would like to say a few words about the general scheme of organization of our research project.

The project includes two research blocks. The first is a historical-sociological one. It constitutes the basis of the scientific direction, whose conception, properly, presented in this publication. The principal goals of this block consist in a periodization of the historical process and its substantial analysis at the global (macro), continental (medi), and national-state (micro) levels of analysis from the positions of the proposed approach. Here, the question is mainly the verification of systems of periodization, which are constructed by using the ideas of universal epochal cycle of the social development. The analysis of the level of national-state formations is represented by the history of the following 50 countries:

Europe (Austria, Belorussia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, The United Kingdom, Yugoslavia);

Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Korea (North), Korea (South), Malaysia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Vietnam);

Australia;

Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Nigeria, South African Republic);

North America (Canada, Mexico, The United States);

South America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru).

In this work, the authors do not pretend to create an absolutely exact chronology of cycles of the historical development of countries, continents, and the world history. In the work, we only make attempt to illustrate potentialities of the approach. A solution of the problem of historical periodization in the frameworks of the conception will become immediately possible only after the application of appropriate procedures (elaboration of particular indices of development, their application, and systematization of results of the study),

The second block of the project will be composed from special investigations aimed at, on the one hand, the analysis of behavior of individuals, small groups, generations, and the society on the whole as subjects of the historical process. On the other hand, as an object of research interest, we take the evolution of the most important social institutions and spheres of vital activity. In particular, we will study cycles of development of policy, economy, science, education, language, literature, arts (music, theater, architecture), etc. The working group of the project will be engaged by coordination of such investigations and will promote the publication of the results received.

Thus, the second block of the project will comprise specific disciplinary investigations in the field of social and humanitarian disciplines. At the beginning, we plan to initiate studies in the following directions:

• Policy and power institutions (the analysis of cycles of development);

• Armed Forces as an institution (the analysis of cycles of development);

• Institutions of collective safety (the analysis of cycles of development);

• Legal systems and traditions (the analysis of cycles of development);

• Legal culture (the analysis of cycles of development);

• Right-protecting institutions (the analysis of cycles of development);

• Economy and economic institutions (the analysis of cycles of development);

• Demography (the analysis of cycles of development of the models of reproduction of the population; phenomena of the demographic transition);

• Religion as an institution (the analysis of cycles of development);

• Science as an institution (the analysis of cycles of development);

• School as an institution (the analysis of cycles of development);

• Library as an institution (the analysis of cycles of development);

• Study of arts (music, theater, architecture – the analysis of cycles of development of the stylistic paradigms);

• Studies of language and literature (the analysis of cycles of development of the notions and stylistic paradigms).

In the frameworks of particular research conceptions, we plan to develop methodological foundations, to define a system of indices and information, and, on this base, to perform each of the objective-disciplinary investigations. It is, perhaps, the most complicated part of the study in such directions, for example, as demography because the statistical data on censuses of population have a limited historical depth (mainly, the XIX and XX centuries) and the total limits of the study are 2,000 years. In other words, difficulties in the provision of objective investigations by statistical information require that participants of the project reveal much creative and inventive activity.

Note that both the verification and measurement of societal (system-wide) indices involve a definite complexity. For example, it is known that the cost of a necessary empiric material according to the price list of the «Gellap-International» company equals about 400,000 USD. Therefore, by seeking alternative variants, the research group plans a special complex of experimental works on approbation of new Internet-technologies, in particular, organization of a separate web-site in the Internet. Such a site allows one to solve, on the whole, three important problems: first, it will give the alternative way «to gather» empiric data; second, it will ensure the open communication between the involved participants of the project; third, we obtain the perspective to edit the electronic specialized journal guaranteeing the operative publication and discussion of the most substantial results received during the realization of this project.

Openness of the project supposes both a free access to solution of its problems and a support of initiative researches on places. The working group of the project foresees an organizational assistance to similar investigations. On the web-site of the project, we intend to organize a powerful informational support to research initiatives in the field of social globalistics. More exactly, we assume to realize the informational-librarian support (the disposition of on-line librarian resources, data on authors, institutions, and countries carrying on relevant investigations, publication of main results, conduct of conferences, discussions, etc.).

The authors of the basic conception and working group of the project express their sincere gratitude all who promoted preparation and establishment of the project in various ways.

We thank the Expert Council of the Ukrainian Social Innovation Society, Secretariat of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Atlantic Council of Ukraine, Scientific Council of the University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (Kharkiv), Institutes of Sociology and History of Ukraine of the NAS of Ukraine, Parliamentarian Publishing House, whose constructive participation allows us to publish this open conception.

We are thankful to the companies «Socis-Gellap» and «GfK–USM» for the significant help in gathering the empiric data during 8 years.

We thank the company «Clear Water» and Ukrainian foundation for law defence Institutions for financial support this publication.

We should like to express our hope that the publication of our open conception will give a positive pulse to a wide scientific discussion. Moreover, we expect to meet a constructive criticism which «comprehends» difficulties which were encountered by the authors’ team and have led to the insufficiently rigorous form of presentation of the essence of the conception.

We ask to send propositions and remarks to the executive secretary of the project, Martynov Andrei Yur’evich [off. tel. (380 44) 229-8704], and to the supervisor of the project, Afonin Eduard Andreevich [off. tel. (380 44) 226-2145; e-mail: afonin@rada.gov.ua].

CHAPTER 1

Social development at the boundary
of millennia

Under the conditions of the planetary crisis, that has emerged on the eve of the third millennium, the humanity is faced with the problem of globalization of transformational processes. Beginning as the «Great Depression» of 1929-1934 in North-American and West-European countries, these processes received a new powerful impulse at the end of the XX century, by spreading their influence on the countries of the Central and Eastern Europe and a significant part of Asia.

The new tendencies of social development and the problems of growth connected with them, actualized the research activity of representatives of social sciences. For example, by the late 60s of the XX century, A. Peccei, a famous public figure in Italy, organized the Rome Club that initiated systematic researches of global problems. The first report of this club, called «The limits of development», has become a futurological sensation. Presented by D. Medows in 1972, at the peak of «Energetic crisis», this report pessimistically stated that social forms within which the economic growth is realized, do not lead to the overall welfare but sharpen social antagonisms and conflicts.

Demographic problems, unemployment, incomplete exploitation of social and economic potentialities of the society, deficit and irrational management of resources, inefficiency of various measures, inflation, lack of security and arms race, pollution of the environment, and the destruction of biosphere – all these tendencies of a new stage of development were considered in the reports of the Rome Club¹. No less pessimistic was Lindon Laroush’s² forecast of the near future, related to the new wave of transformational processes in the former USSR.

The globalization of threats may be the price paid by the humanity for its achievements. In the latter half of the XX century, the man landed on the Moon, which can be compared to the discovery of America by Columbus. The technical-scientific revolution radically alters everyday life. The achievements of genetics put the man in one line with the Creator, though the man is hardly ready to that fact morally. The Internet is transforming our ideas of time and space.

In the frameworks of new tendencies of social development, we observe the steady establishment of the liberal world economy system based on the principles of monetarism. At the same time against this self-intensifying background, the phenomenon of the so-called “ trophy economy” is becoming remarkable, when the mechanism of overconsumption, not balanced with the adequate quantity of constructive production, is gaining strength under the conditions of moral corruption³. The controversies of the industrial development remain actual. A particular anxiety is brought up, in particular, by inevitable climatic changes caused by the extensive economic management and irreversible utilization of natural resources. The demographic factor is still fraught with the potential threat to social development: as of December 12, 1999, the world population has reached 6 billion people, having risen by 1 billion for as little as 12 years⁴.

Since the Gulf War of 1990-1991, the conflicts for redistribution of resources (natural, energetic, economic, cultural, and informational) are again becoming the reality. In the process of political, economic, and social changes, which are one of the manifestations of the essence of historical development, the new world policy is becoming more expansive. This fact is revealed by the recent events in Kosovo (Yugoslavia) that took place in 1999. The countries of the advance-guard of social development have reached the postindustrial stage of development by the end of the XX century, when human intellect and various forms of information are becoming the leading factors of the reproduction of economy.

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