Диссертация (1138744), страница 27
Текст из файла (страница 27)
Дескриптивная статистика уровня долговойнагрузки компаний группы стран ЦВЕ до, во время и после кризисаКол-воПеременная наблюдений Среднее Ст.отклонение МинимумЦВЕ, 2002-2010 годыstdr1283 .1027337 .09455440ltdr1283 .1087466 .10129170tdr1283 .2114802 .12898620stdra1431 .3196042 .1741642.0123009ltdra1431 .1615826 .1338590tdra1431 .480363 .1947295.0164395mstdr1181 .1310731 .15573830mltdr1181 .1350397 .15553710mtdr1181 .2661129 .2303970ЦВЕ, 2002-2007 прекризисные годыstdr814 .10058.09463670ltdr814 .1023258 .09426460tdr814 .2029057 .1255320stdra936 .3136296 .1727556.0127357ltdra936 .155215 .12437670tdra936 .4677923 .188763.0533392mstdr728 .1137342 .13619480mltdr728 .1119376 .12330130Максимум.9414391.5468083.97207921.96169931.8980908.9363772.9892256.9414391.4822443.97207921.83951771.8189558.7485245182Кол-воПеременная наблюдений Среднее Ст.отклонениеmtdr728 .2256718 .1920485ЦВЕ, 2008 годstdr161 .118916 .1001613ltdr161 .1183423 .1063892tdr161 .2372582 .1321763stdra168 .3472718 .1791963ltdra168 .1660379 .1412133tdra168 .5131119 .2012869mstdr161 .2156288 .2168029mltdr161 .1944111 .1881841mtdr161 .4100398 .2759895ЦВЕ, 2009 годstdr164 .1003364 .0893063ltdr164 .1201133 .1141976tdr164 .2204497 .1345123stdra166 .3251538 .1722088ltdra166 .1770234 .151479tdra166 .5012321 .2051679mstdr164 .1537339 .1626912mltdr164 .1783916 .1877613mtdr164 .3321255 .2499626ЦВЕ, 2010годstdr144 .0995456 .0926273ltdr144 .1213678 .1152668tdr144 .2209135 .1343289stdra161 .3197464 .1776388ltdra161 .1780322 .1564914tdra161 .4977554 .2053772mstdr128 .094299 .1147709mltdr128 .1362105 .194745mtdr128 .2305095 .25176Минимум Максимум0 .96136220 .41175170 .47884480 .5105612.0248105.89553440 .8293612.027782810 .89809080 .91528980 .9650460 .39212720 .54680830 .5468083.0123009.88607570 .9616993.016439510 .72087840 .93637720 .95620730 .41740040 .41256510 .5010644.0152137.84801860 .7541759.024492710 .60314020 .84662780 .9892256183Приложение 8.
Результаты тестов ЧоуКорреляционная матрица традиционных детерминант структурыкапиталаlnsalesproftangibilgrowthlnsales1.00000.16520.1406-0.0876proftangibilgrowth1.0000-0.1025-0.25711.0000-0.12331.0000Результаты регрессионного анализа на совокупной выборкеVARIABLESlnsalesproftangibilgrowth(1)tdr(2)tdr(3)tdr(7)tdr0.00882***(0.00223)-0.208***(0.0170)0.00859(0.00646)0.00752***(0.00193)-0.219***(0.0167)0.00755(0.00622)0.00563***(0.00215)-0.216***(0.0168)0.00763(0.00622)-0.0804***(0.0105)-0.0824***(0.0105)0.0377***(0.0110)0.00473**(0.00205)-0.213***(0.0167)0.00411(0.00627)0.0828***(0.0104)0.0402***(0.0110)0.0129***(0.00329)country_crisis2crisis1ConstantObservationsNumber of numberStandard errors inparentheses*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, *p<0.1-0.0827***(0.0105)0.0397***(0.0110)0.187***(0.0143)0.174***(0.0141)0.189***(0.0145)0.00597**(0.00300)0.183***(0.0146)3,1244023,1244023,1244023,124402Тест Чоу при разделении выборки по принципу принадлежности кгруппе странess_cess_1ess_2kN_1N_250,678188928,893023918,4316501519471177184Chow calculatedpval F(k, N_1+N_22*k)44,132772684,04796E-44Тест Чоу при разделении выборки по принципу принадлежности ккризисному периодуess_cess_1ess_2kN_1N_2Chow calculatedpval F(k, N_1+N_2-2*k)50,678188911,927071838,5489948572024042,4938902120,029109527185Приложение 9.
Детерминанты целевого уровня долговой нагрузки в 2002-2007 годыVARIABLEStangibilproflnsalesgrowthdivassetuniFEstdr0.119**(0.0475)-0.0123(0.0789)-0.0366***(0.00765)0.295***(0.109)БразилияFEmstdrFEltdrFEtdr-0.341***(0.112)0.0914(0.0599)-0.378***(0.103)0.00268(0.0104)-0.435***(0.144)0.00886*(0.00527)-0.157*(0.0815)-1.062***(0.294)-0.0323***(0.00962)-0.0484(0.136)0.189(0.125)0.108***(0.0118)0.367**(0.176)-0.129*(0.0772)0.177*(0.0927)-0.715**(0.315)0.603*(0.308)1.474(1.134)bod_indendtriskdoil0.0311(0.335)FEmltdr0.845**(0.375)-0.101***(0.0240)-0.119(0.409)FEmtdrFEstdra0.0725(0.0663)-0.1320.375***(0.223)(0.114)0.188*** 0.0467***(0.0219)(0.0107)-0.3880.229(0.328)(0.151)0.251***(0.0855)1.723**(0.698)REltdra-0.756***(0.147)-0.00168(0.0101)-0.161(0.154)FEtdra0.0672(0.0797)-0.418***(0.133)0.0555***(0.0129)0.0292(0.183)-0.266**(0.108)-0.0836(0.360)0.952(1.350)0.0381186dcrConstantObservationsR-squaredNumber of numberStandard errors inparentheses*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05,* p<0.1F testProb > FBreusch - PaganProb > chibar2HausmanProb>chi20.326***(0.0648)0.216***(0.0788)0.557***(0.0829)0.825***(0.0914)1.036***(0.198)1.619***(0.168)0.500***(0.0919)2010.234361840.138361950.192361910.42436570.516151970.378361950.206366,27000,000034,100,000056,57000,000011,640,0705105,140,00007,82000,00006,910,000049,220,000043,6403,30,00190,040,424420,030,00279,540,000097,430,000041,010,00007,73000,000065,160,000041,29000,000011,39000,0000138,120,000011,13000,0489(0.121)0.0552(0.0546)0.432***(0.0905)195368,710,0000149,620,00003,530,61831.020***(0.109)2010.1853615,540,0000204,220,000015,340,0040187РоссияFEmstdrREstdrFEltdrFEtdrtangibil-0.00962(0.0312)-0.0515(0.0541)-0.0349(0.0525)prof-0.274***(0.0689)0.214**(0.0879)-0.0716(0.0756)0.257**(0.106)0.496***(0.138)lnsales-0.00514(0.00537)-0.0178(0.0989)0.0525***(0.0148)0.0108(0.00788)0.00329(0.115)-0.073***(0.0216)0.00266(0.00781)0.0178(0.111)0.00485(0.0168)-0.323*(0.186)VARIABLESgrowthassetutiacc_stREmltdrREmtdr-0.157 0.486***(0.103)(0.155)0.00610 -0.0109(0.0104) (0.0151)-0.105 -0.439**(0.147)(0.205)-0.123**(0.0508)FEstdraREltdraFEtdra0.0425(0.0798)0.00668(0.0562)-0.0225(0.0845)-0.240**(0.110)0.107(0.107)-0.0826(0.117)-0.00700(0.0113)0.0989(0.154)0.00144(0.00884)0.0949(0.150)-0.0117(0.0120)0.322**(0.163)0.0657**(0.0288)bod_indemaj_1ndtmedmtdr-0.184(0.267)0.105(0.403)0.419(0.434)188risk0.521*(0.274)doil0.00262(0.0278)0.0697**(0.0286)0.110***(0.0421)dcrConstantObservationsR-squaredNumber of numberStandard errors inparentheses*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, *p<0.1F testProb > FBreusch - PaganProb > chibar2HausmanProb>chi20.0890(0.0735)0.159**(0.0723)-0.0541(0.154)502290.104502290.043501500.213493,26000,000034,010,00003,22000,66617,680,0000105,740,000029,87000,000014,87000,0000181,250,000019,49000,00165,220,000084,330,00009,170,057229-0.101(0.522)0.00216(0.0569)0.0297(0.0498)0.160**(0.0766)0.319(0.861)-0.434(0.542)0.0454(0.0952)0.116(0.0916)0.243*(0.144)0.00891(0.0539)0.0446(0.0490)0.189**(0.0758)14914949498,260,000095,20,00007,430,114713,340,0000148,173,39000,63980.320***(0.105)2360.040502366,82000,000097,900,000025,16000,00005,70,000081,160,00007,130,1292500.587***(0.112)2360.0365013,90,0000166,2928,63000189FEstdrFEltdrFEtdrtangibil0.0740(0.0666)prof0.00522(0.0818)0.0384(0.0649)0.498***(0.0798)0.0782(0.0502)0.595***(0.0615)lnsales0.0208** -0.00358 0.0149**(0.00844) (0.00818) (0.00635)0.0426-0.0636-0.0499(0.0847) (0.0821) (0.0638)VARIABLESgrowthИндияFEmstdrFEmltdrFEmtdrFEstdraFEltdraFEtdra-0.841*(0.435)-0.173*(0.0972)-0.341(0.311)-0.121(0.282)-0.0226*(0.0126)0.212(0.129)-1.100***(0.130)0.0830***(0.0126)0.351***(0.129)0.0268(0.0242)-0.0652(0.232)0.143*(0.0807)0.807(0.851)-2.723***(0.851)-1.889(2.571)0.0435*** -0.0250(0.00927) (0.0266)-0.0873-0.184(0.0907)(0.255)0.153*(0.0888)0.0587***(0.0186)1.616***-1.936(0.613)(1.835)-0.118(0.130)assetuni-0.0741*(0.0373)0.828**(0.358)-0.239*(0.124)assetutindt0.0946(1.667)riskConstantObservations-0.0491(0.0615)0.241***(0.0599)0.224***(0.0463)0.241***(0.0838)0.929***(0.0837)1.060***(0.205)-0.00623(0.0587)0.393**(0.146)0.395***(0.133)420418420420420634206363190R-squaredNumber of numberStandard errors inarentheses*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, *p<0.1F testProb > FBreusch - PaganProb > chibar2HausmanProb>chi20.018704,97000,0000133,060,000017,68000,00140.110706,710,0000230,150,00008,69000,06930.218700.0337014,74000,0000469,880,000011,78000,01913,090,000056,10,000011,050,0260.3097010,260,0000308,590,000036,600.378160.129700.256160.122167,820,000019,420,0000197,770,000011,83000,0000363,040,000039,19000,00005,820,000011,240,000030,78013,990,000036,860,0000-7,430,0000191VARIABLESFEstdrREltdrFEtdrtangibilprof-0.000730(0.132)lnsales-0.00307(0.00537)-0.0637(0.0599)growthfcfag-0.215*(0.129)divassetuniassetuti0.0361**(0.0158)acc_stbod_indemaj_1-0.464***(0.111)0.981***(0.358)КитайFEmstdrREmltdrFEmtdrFEstdraREltdraFEtdra0.0841***(0.0281)-0.253***(0.0658)-0.240-0.1280.754-0.103*-0.197**(0.464)(0.590)(0.468)(0.0547)(0.0885)0.0167*** 0.0322** 0.0302* 0.0147*** -0.0111 0.0386** 0.0133*** 0.0257***(0.00338) (0.0132) (0.0166) (0.00424) (0.0211) (0.0172) (0.00469) (0.00892)-0.04900.01030.1490.05400.307-0.142-0.0640-0.200*(0.0463)(0.125)(0.154)(0.0696)(0.196)(0.163)(0.0620)(0.104)-0.466*** 1.023*** -0.308-0.793 1.147***(0.108)(0.309)(0.393)(0.499)(0.405)0.02190.03390.0477*0.0186(0.0179) (0.0220)(0.0279) (0.0234)0.0749*** 0.724*** -0.1660.336-0.1080.0716*(0.0271)(0.216)(0.278)(0.353)(0.283)(0.0368)0.0531*** -0.03510.0448 0.0742*** 0.00797 -0.0397(0.00999) (0.0403) (0.0522) (0.0141) (0.0664) (0.0528)-0.0143 0.006770.00352 -0.0169(0.0135) (0.0167)(0.0212) (0.0176)0.1660.1030.2230.103(0.136)(0.167)(0.213)(0.178)0.0267 -0.204**-0.212***1920.0790***(0.0197)ndtriskdoildcrConstantObservationsR-squaredNumber of numberStandard errors inparentheses*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05,* p<0.1F testProb > FBreusch - PaganProb > chibar2HausmanProb>chi20.159***(0.0351)4450.0857710,41000,0000367,650,000016,29000,01230.807***(0.235)-0.235(0.188)0.0737*(0.0404)0.0110(0.0203)-0.0132(0.0268)378657,50,0000242,470,000011,64000,11320.241***(0.0623)1.584**(0.647)0.00148(0.131)0.146(0.816)-0.336(0.225)-0.0201(0.0320)0.00131(0.0238)0.0399(0.0305)0.0752***(0.0200)0.318(0.285)-0.417(0.261)0.0830(0.0562)-0.0203(0.0278)0.0240(0.0365)(0.166)1.027(1.038)(0.0815)1.744**(0.847)0.174(0.176)0.217*(0.121)1450.2744038710,69000,0000359,720,000054,23000,00009,20,0000244,100,00005,630,4661-0.0699(0.0923)0.305**(0.138)1450.436401420.13740374771420.2634015,17000,0000491,810,000028,67000,000010,950,0000186,110,000016,150,00647,130,0000301,820,00008,550,12859,840,0000268,520,00009,840,000465(0.0334)0.828(0.543)0.323***(0.0630)4620.1167712,920,0000408,950,0000152,930,0000193VARIABLESREstdrREltdrtangibilproflnsalesgrowth-0.199***(0.0703)-0.182*-0.307**(0.109)(0.144)0.007100.0168*(0.00657) (0.00882)-0.0348-0.155(0.119)(0.155)assetutiacc_stndt-0.160(0.206)doildcrbod_inde-0.102(0.297)-0.0635*(0.0358)0.0188(0.0228)0.0200-0.480***(0.169)0.0179(0.0113)-0.406**(0.169)-0.083***(0.0299)0.0555**(0.0262)-0.0840(0.0515)0.342***(0.130)0.00731(0.00762)0.00607(0.146)-0.681**(0.272)medtdrriskВосточная ЕвропаREREtdrmstdr-0.418(0.399)-0.0154(0.0480)0.0517*(0.0308)0.0155REmltdr-0.331(0.350)-0.0470(0.0416)0.0351(0.0262)0.0170FEstdraREltdraFEtdra0.0589(0.0639)-0.369**(0.162)0.0101(0.0101)-0.0544(0.165)-0.062**(0.0276)-0.530*(0.303)0.422(0.829)-0.938*(0.531)-0.00358(0.0746)0.105**(0.0534)0.0112REmtdr-0.467(0.464)0.00441(0.0550)0.0980**(0.0399)0.01140.791*** -0.470*-0.231(0.218)(0.248)(0.160)0.0158 0.0460** 0.0188*(0.0135) (0.0194) (0.0104)-0.0407-0.276-0.163(0.238)(0.168)(0.168)0.0629(0.0482)-0.983**(0.425)0.701*(0.394)-0.700(0.612)-0.0237(0.0768)0.0520(0.0510)0.0241-0.429(0.418)-0.202(0.278)0.0437*(0.0217)-0.503**(0.189)-0.16***(0.0541)-0.0793(0.470)-0.668(0.491)0.00997(0.0584)0.0534(0.0383)0.00845194ConstantObservationsR-squaredNumber of numberStandard errors inparentheses*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, *p<0.1F testProb > FBreusch - PaganProb > chibar2HausmanProb>chi2(0.0319)0.0461(0.0441)(0.0431)0.0596(0.0593)(0.0560)0.106(0.218)(0.0369)0.0957*(0.0555)(0.0503)0.148**(0.0714)(0.0658)0.0467(0.111)10510510910299995656565454542,74000,00034,770,01455,62000,22932,990,000118,430,00000,88000,92785,94000,000030,610,000010,61000,10102,720,000419,380,00003,630,4583,840,00009,970,00088,310,140013,020,000212,240,00201,740,7826-0.0296(0.124)1060.205564,97000,00006,030,007019,17000,0018(0.0525)0.0275(0.0777)110564,260,000010,070,00083,940,41440.282**(0.140)1060.4495641,950,000010,690,000013,070,0227195Приложение 10.
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