Диссертация (1138570), страница 39
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Error1.3610950.1757700.8049480.0002110.0331480.0257260.0196710.003457Mean dependent varS.D. dependent varAkaike info criterionSchwarz criterionF-statisticProb(F-statistic)t-Statistic-8.90198811.39671-4.096797-1.5932395.4069054.617180-5.4545224.769050Prob.0.00000.00000.00030.12060.00000.00010.00000.00004.8766460.470299-3.230656-2.896300644.59360.000000Таблица C-4217Коррелограмма и результаты теста Люнга-Бокса для остатков модели [3.2.3]Sample: 2000Q3 2010Q3Included observations: 41Autocorrelation. |** |. |*. |**| . |**| . |****| . |.*| .
|.*| . |. |*. |. |*. |. |*. |.|. |. |*. |. |*. |. |*. |.|. |.*| . |.*| . |**| . |.*| . |.|. |Partial Correlation. |** |. |*. |***| . |.*| . |***| . |. |** |.*| . |.*| . |.*| . |.*| . |. |*. |.*| . |. |** |.|. |.|. |.*| . |.|. |**| . |.*| . |.|. |1234567891011121314151617181920AC0.3170.169-0.214-0.275-0.510-0.058-0.1120.1240.0710.1400.0580.0790.0700.086-0.022-0.154-0.077-0.264-0.158-0.035PAC0.3170.076-0.322-0.167-0.3810.241-0.161-0.058-0.074-0.0970.191-0.1230.201-0.003-0.041-0.0930.062-0.190-0.0930.041Q-Stat4.42665.71497.843311.45124.19124.36325.00925.83026.11027.22227.41727.80028.10728.58928.62230.29730.72936.08438.08238.186Prob0.0350.0570.0490.0220.0000.0000.0010.0010.0020.0020.0040.0060.0090.0120.0180.0170.0220.0070.0060.008Таблица C-5Результаты оценки уравнения [3.2.4]Dependent Variable: LNREALM0Method: Least SquaresSample: 2000Q3 2010Q3Included observations: 41Newey-West HAC Standard Errors & Covariance (lag truncation=3)VariableCoefficientStd.
ErrorC-12.116451.980072LNRGDP2.0031990.253717DEPOSIT-3.2977070.572602BC_PAY-0.0003360.000136D10.1792290.040184D20.1187800.027538D3-0.1072980.012650@TREND0.0164880.003602R-squared0.992740 Mean dependent varAdjusted R-squared0.991199 S.D. dependent varS.E. of regression0.044119 Akaike info criterionSum squared resid0.064235 Schwarz criterionLog likelihood74.22844 F-statisticDurbin-Watson stat1.361498 Prob(F-statistic)t-Statistic-6.1191987.895417-5.759160-2.4771304.4602624.313386-8.4818214.577741Prob.0.00000.00000.00000.01850.00010.00010.00000.00014.8766460.470299-3.230656-2.896300644.59360.0000002181.620151.2100.8500.4-5-100.0-15-0.4-202003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010CUSUM5% SignificanceCUSUM of Squares5% SignificanceРис.
C-2. Результаты тестов CUSUM и CUSUM-SQ на проверку стабильностимодели [3.2.4]Таблица С-6Результаты оценки уравнения [3.2.5]Dependent Variable: LNM0Method: Least SquaresSample: 2000Q3 2010Q3Included observations: 41VariableCLNPLNRGDPDEPOSITLNBC_CASHD1D2D3R-squaredAdjusted R-squaredS.E. of regressionSum squared residLog likelihoodDurbin-Watson statCoefficient-8.9115020.8130991.538434-1.6615920.2545890.1110810.061961-0.0721770.9980800.9976730.0384490.04878579.868381.525749Std.
Error1.5574550.1884550.2069560.7574070.0699150.0347690.0270740.019874Mean dependent varS.D. dependent varAkaike info criterionSchwarz criterionF-statisticProb(F-statistic)t-Statistic-5.7218354.3145427.433616-2.1937913.6414213.1948062.288609-3.631689Prob.0.00000.00010.00000.03540.00090.00310.02860.00097.3751710.797001-3.505775-3.1714192450.5780.000000219Таблица С-7Коррелограмма и результаты теста Люнга-Бокса для остатков модели [3.2.5]Sample: 2000Q3 2010Q3Included observations: 41Autocorrelation. |** |.|. |.|.
|.*| . |****| . |.*| . |**| . |.*| . |.|. |. |*. |. |*. |. |** |. |** |. |*. |.|. |**| . |**| . |**| . |.*| . |.|. |Partial Correlation. |** |.|. |.*| . |.*| . |***| . |. |*. |***| . |.*| . |.*| . |.*| . |. |*. |.*| . |. |*. |.|. |.*| .
|**| . |.*| . |.*| . |.*| . |.|. |1234567891011121314151617181920AC0.2340.065-0.055-0.134-0.462-0.107-0.287-0.164-0.0440.1300.1530.2450.2330.156-0.015-0.272-0.189-0.240-0.138-0.025PAC0.2340.011-0.076-0.112-0.4320.101-0.345-0.126-0.109-0.1460.126-0.1520.168-0.020-0.086-0.243-0.073-0.115-0.0780.001Q-Stat2.41172.60152.73963.591514.04914.62118.88120.31320.41821.37622.74326.40129.82131.40631.42136.62339.25743.67245.19445.248Prob0.1200.2720.4340.4640.0150.0230.0090.0090.0160.0190.0190.0090.0050.0050.0080.0020.0020.0010.0010.001Таблица С-8Результаты оценки уравнения [3.2.6]Dependent Variable: LNM0Method: Least SquaresSample: 2000Q3 2010Q3Included observations: 41Newey-West HAC Standard Errors & Covariance (lag truncation=3)VariableCoefficientStd.
ErrorC-8.9115021.824237LNP0.8130990.322237LNRGDP1.5384340.233734DEPOSIT-1.6615920.944989LNBC_CASH0.2545890.110433D10.1110810.037982D20.0619610.031393D3-0.0721770.020852R-squared0.998080 Mean dependent varAdjusted R-squared0.997673 S.D. dependent varS.E. of regression0.038449 Akaike info criterionSum squared resid0.048785 Schwarz criterionLog likelihood79.86838 F-statisticDurbin-Watson stat1.525749 Prob(F-statistic)t-Statistic-4.8850562.5232936.581980-1.7583192.3053732.9245401.973720-3.461362Prob.0.00000.01660.00000.08800.02760.00620.05680.00157.3751710.797001-3.505775-3.1714192450.5780.0000002201.620151.2100.8500.4-50.0-10-15-0.4-202003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010CUSUMCUSUM of Squares5% Significance5% SignificanceРис. С-3.
Результаты тестов CUSUM и CUSUM-SQ на проверку стабильностимодели [3.2.6]Таблица С-9Результаты оценки уравнения [3.2.7]Dependent Variable: LNM0Method: Least SquaresSample: 2000Q3 2010Q3Included observations: 41VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C-9.0921941.324339-6.8654570.0000LNP0.9079380.1391566.5246190.0000LNRGDP1.3387320.2135056.2702500.0000DEPOSIT-1.6001030.683276-2.3418100.0254LNBC_NUMBER0.3036820.0679404.4698250.0001D10.0795390.0353362.2509400.0312D20.0544570.0252642.1555660.0385D3-0.0898140.016455-5.4583090.0000R-squared0.998323Mean dependent var7.375171Adjusted R-squared0.997968S.D.
dependent var0.797001S.E. of regression0.035928Akaike info criterion-3.641400Sum squared resid0.042598Schwarz criterion-3.307044Log likelihood82.64870F-statistic2807.215Durbin-Watson stat1.297428Prob(F-statistic)0.000000221Таблица С-10Результаты оценки уравнения [3.2.8]Dependent Variable: LNM0Method: Least SquaresSample: 2000Q3 2010Q3Included observations: 41Newey-West HAC Standard Errors & Covariance (lag truncation=3)VariableCoefficientStd.
Errort-StatisticProb.C-8.8923891.188783-7.4802450.0000LNP0.8253250.1795284.5972030.0001LNRGDP1.2896260.1997506.4561920.0000DEPOSIT-1.2434030.664100-1.8723130.0703LNBC_NUMBER0.3404230.0833034.0865840.0003D10.0735590.0310122.3719280.0239D20.0505150.0195312.5864040.0145D3-0.0925750.012356-7.4920710.0000DELTADEPOSIT-1.4277051.116048-1.2792520.2100R-squared0.998397Mean dependent var7.375171Adjusted R-squared0.997996S.D. dependent var0.797001S.E. of regression0.035676Akaike info criterion-3.637462Sum squared resid0.040730Schwarz criterion-3.261312Log likelihood83.56797F-statistic2491.303Durbin-Watson stat1.439575Prob(F-statistic)0.0000001.6201.215100.8500.4-50.0-10-15-0.42003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-202003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010CUSUM5% SignificanceCUSUM of Squares5% SignificanceРис.
С-4. Результаты тестов CUSUM и CUSUM-SQ на проверку стабильностимодели [3.2.8]222.