Анализ_бизнеса_4 (1044302), страница 3
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3.8.p(C)-p(D|B,C)ynh, h0,900,10h, l0,300,70l, h0,350,65l, l0,990,01hl0,200,80166xi,,,{h,l},,l–.B.hC.D{y,n},:(n).(y)-,,,-..44.1.,.,.,,:;––,,-,,,-..1972 .«.70- –»,80,[II, 2].,1999 .,2,39-,«252000 .) [I, 2.4]..–,-»(,,,,-168,(()).)–(.–(),,,,,,,,-.–-,,-,((-),).,,(477-,,1999 .) [II, 16] (21:).,.«,-,,«».,(),».:––;.,,--169.(:-);.:,,,,.,,-,..:;,-;(,);(-).(), . .-–,,.
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4.4):.PV (;FV (175. Present Value) –, . .. Future Value) –, . ..t-:PV (1 r ) t ,FVr –(77).,–.-FV,t,. 4.5).,:,PV (.FV.-FV (1 r ) t ,PVr –(78).((t = 0).)-()(E),-,.,,-.,m-,()Em,:1m (E)mN-(1 E ) m(79)(m = 0,1,2...N);––.mm..,,176(1 r) tFVPV012t. 4.4.(1 r )tFVPV012. 4.5.t-177m-Em,:1,om1m (E)0;,m0.m(80)(1 E i )i 1–.,,,.,.CF0CF1:A.... CFt(81)(. 4.6)r:A FM 3(r , t ) ,FV(1 r ) trFM 3( r , t )1((82).FM3(r,t),,,:,.),,.(.
4.7),,A FM 4(r , t ) ,PVFM 4(r , t ).-1 (1 r )rt..,-(83)1781 (1 r )rtFVAAA012...At. 4.6.(1 r ) t 1rPVAAA012. 4.7....At-179FM4(r,t),,(,:),,-t-r..,(-,50)..-,A,rPVtlim1 (1 r )rt1.r(84).,r,(,).4.3.. 4.1.,,:-.,,-.,.,-,,,[II, 16]-180..,,-..,.,,,.,,,,.4.1,()C(Net ValueNVPayback PeriodPBPProfitability IndexPINet Present ValueNPVInternal Rate ofReturnIRRDiscounted Payback PeriodDPBPDiscounted Profitability IndexDPI)()(,)--181:–––;;.(()),m-,(85)mmmm-––;.,> 0,1.., .
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2.1 +. 2.2)(. 3.1 +. 3.2)(. 3.1 ·. 4)(.3. 2 ·. 4)5.2.5.3.(. 3.3 ·. 4)12(m)3-187,,,.,,.,,,–,-.. 4.3.4.31.-1.1.>01.2. C1.3.>12.-2.1.>02.2.2.3.-2.4.->11884.4..,.-.,,.:––;.–.,. 4.4.4.4imm-,/GIm,Imm--m--,m–1-k-GI mkI mkk-////-189-:GI mImmI 1 ... I m ;GI 0im)100(1m–(92),.(,)GI mk.GI mGN mk,(93), . .,-.:-;.(),-:kmkmGN mk .GI m(94)-.:mmGI m.(95).190–,.(i)(Ei),(E), «»,:1 Ei1 Ei(1 E )(1 i ) .(96)Ei i .(97)1 E i.:EiE i.(98),.4.5..,,,,.-.,.:–––;;.:–;-191–,(,-,);–,-.:–,-,;–,(,,-. .);–,,(,,),.-.-:–,;–.[II, 9; 14; 17].:–––––;;;;.,-192..,.,.-.:-,-,,;,().-,,..,,.m,.,:–––;;;–-.CmmSmCm193CV m DC m,S m CV mm-––(99);(,,,,mCVm;-–(,,,)m-,-;DCm –m-.,0,6 – 0,7-.,.–.-:1)(-);2),-,;3),-();-4)();194–5),;6)–,;7);8)(-).():kpk ,(100)kkpk;–––()k-;k-..–-,..:1)2);3);,.,.,,..,--195,-..,-,..,:1);2);3);-4).,-,,.ERERERE R,(101);–––;.-,.,.,,.,,-196,-(),LIBOR,.,4 – 6%.
LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) —,.,.-LIBOR..-,.,-,.:–()-();–-(,,).:–––;;..,BERI (),-197,Ernst &Young.(2, 3).-,.,-.5 %,,-.4.5,%3–5-8 – 1013 – 1518 – 20.,. 4.5.,55.1.«»,-,.-,,.(), . .-,-,.[II, 8; II, 15],,,,.,.,,-,.,–,.--199,,.-,–,,.,,.-,. 5.1.([I, 11.24],,(value) –)-,..(market value) –,,,.,,,.(book value)(),,.-,«»,.[I, 5.31],,.,-200:29()(()()())«»«. 5.1.2003 .10 , 03-6/»,(BVS)-201,––(102),;(),.,,,..-,.V,V(103)–V(.);––;.(103),-,,,-.,-...VV–VV,(104);202–V.V,-..-[I, 11.24],:1.2..(),,.3..4.5.6....7...-:1.2...,-.().,–.–-.(),,-.–-VN––203N ,.((105));,-.(105),-:V,N.–(106);–.,,-,«».-.,,.,,«».«»-(Economic Value Added –EVA),(Stern Stewart) [II, 15].,:V.0.0VV–;,(107)204V–V–;.TV(r(r.t 1r)Tt).T 1(1.T)T1,(108),(109)–t – 1;–––.t.t 1(1t 1V).tt;;.(107) – (109),-,–.*-,,,.--–.RfRf–Rm–( Rm-Rf ) ,(110);-.:*.
Capital Assets Pricing Model –.-205RfR pi ,(111)iRf–;R pi– i-.(00,05):,,,,,,.5.2.--,,.,,-.,-.,.–-.,206.,.,.,.«-»,,..--,,–,,,-,-.--,,. 5.2.,«–,-»-.–..–--207.,.,-:-,[I, 11.7].,,»-,«,.,.:,,,,(.. 2-42«-»).1/98 «» [I, 5.9].,,,,,-,. .,,,..,-,.20812---. 5.2.----3209------4210,-...,,,.(,),-,,(),-,:()..,-,,,,...–,-,.:. 5.1).,(.-2115.11.2...3.4.5.6....,,,,--.-7.-.1..2..3..4.,,.5..6..7..8.-,.9.,.-212. 5.11.,,,.2..3..,..-,,,. ...,-,-.,,.,,.,,,..-213,,,-.,,,-,.,,,-,.....,,,,,,-.-,.
5.2.,,.,«»..,:,214–,,-,,,;–,,.,;–-,..5.2-1.,( -,,,)-,,2.-((,))3.()-,--215.,-,:–,–;-,.-,.,-(2«-..15»).-,,,(«.. 2, 34» [II, 22]).,,-,,,,(..5-«» [II, 23]).-,,,-,..4.,.,-,-,,-216.-,.. 5.2,,..2,,».«--,.-.3..,-.,-.,.-,. 5.3.«»,--2175.3«1.2.3.4.5.6.7.1,2,3,2,3,4,3,-».2.2 3.1.4. 2, 3 4.4.5,.«»,.«»,«».I.1.1.1.:121993 .1.2.145-(.,.312004 .)..2004 .).51.3.(.,.291.4.1998 .,.1998 .117(146.,.5221-I (.,.22201.6.197-(.,.312000 .52004 .).182004 .).302004 .).1.5.27-1993 .2001 .2.2.1.1993 .5351-I (.1995 .208-(.,2001 .119-(.,:2004 .).20:2.2..2.3.9262004 .).72001 .).,6:.302.4.:252.5.1999 .39-(.,102003 .2.6.1993 .4871-I (.1024- .:2003 .).2-2000 .).:27-219:2.7.81998 .14-(.212002 .).2.8.:82.9.2003 .212003 .).:129-(.,.30:2.10.2002 .1-164- .1996 .10.2.11.:1992 .3615-1 (.,9.292004 .).2.12.«-»:1996 .2-1998 .114-2.13.(.,.92001 .).30:19.2.14.:312004 .)...2291995 .1991 .(.,226-2.15.:82001 .129-(.232003 .).:.82.16.142002 .161-(2003 .).2.17.2300-I (:..,222.18.82003 .).2.19..2.20.262.21..,2001 .128-(231996 .232003 .).():2002 .
127- .:11. 222004 .).72004 .).:.,127-(1991 .1992 ..23:-.,1738-1 (220:2.22.62004 .).1998 .71-(.,.29231992 .2.23.(.:2002 .).242.24.231992 .3526-I (:2.25.1996 .41:2.26.((.,.,.:39-(9. 21182004 .).202.27...,.:2002 .).82002 .).1995 .108-222004 .).6282.28.3523-I:1996 .1993 .5605-1.2.29.:1995 .225-(30.,.292004 .).2.30.:(.,.212004 .).292.31.5003-I:2002 .184-27.2.32.,:3520-I (.,2.33.1641995 .2.35..7(232002 .).. 24):(1998 .2.34.1993.,.292003 .).3023:232003 .).1992 .1992 .3517-I (.,3.3.1.-:12004 .).2000 .1953 (.,.16-221283.2.:202004 .649 (.2004 .).3.3.:232000 .1768.3.4.:1992 .1392 (.,.-3.5.21994 .1114 (26.162003 .).:5, 212002 .).3.6.:2004 .).2092004 .314 (.3.7.2010:-576.2002 .303.8.:302002 .--578.3.9.:20282004 .649 (.2004 .).4.4.1.1998 – 2000:241998 .832.4.2.:1999 .91024 (.,292000 .).4.3.,28:2001 .-,826.4.4.,:-222172002 .319 (.162003 .).4.5.,2002 .,:439 (19.262004 .).4.6.:192002 .438 (26.2004 .).4.7.,-:2002 .1(1.,.82003 .).4.8.:122002 .-409.4.9.:292004 .-257.4.10.:112002 .1764- .4.11.,:2000 .1123 (.192001 .).4.12.204.13.,10-:2004 .96.,:2003 .,-677.4.14.,16:2004 .299.-223-4.15.):2003 .(2003-2005151163- .4.16.:61998 .283.4.17.():232002 .696 (.42003 .).5.()5.1.28-:60 .2000 .5.2.,-:212000 .29 .5.3.282001 .:119 ) (.232002 .).5.4.:2004 .1391 .5.5.-:202003 .44 .5.6.:.17231997 .15 (.2001 .).5.7.:222003 .-67 .5.8.31(.72003 .).:2000 .94224«5.9.»91/98:1998 .
60 (.-305.10.1999 .).«)»205.11.(-2/94:1994 . 167.«»,3/2000:2000 . 2 .105.12.«»1999 .64/99:43 .5.13.«95.14.6/01:2001 . 26 (»»30..182002 .).«5.15.25-»5/01:2001 . 44 .«7/98:1998 .56 .28»8/01:2001 . 96 .5.16.«-5.17.«9/99:1999 . 32 (»6.,.305.18.2001 .)«10/99:1999 . 33 (.,5.19.»1311/2000:2000 . 5 (5.20.»27»612/2000:2000 . 11 ..30«.«2001 .).302001 .).--2255.21.»13/2000:2000 . 92 .»14/2000:2000 . 91 .16«-«-5.22.165.23.«15/01:2001 .
60 .«16/02:66 .«»25.24.»2002 .25.25.,»17/02:2002 . 115 .-195.26.«»18/02:2002 . 114 .195.27.«»19/02:2002 . 126 .5.28.24«»20/03:2003 . 105 .5.29.30(.2002 .-101993 .15.,16-00-14/445).:1605.30.292000 .).241998 .:34 (.,.5.31.-:292003 .10 , 03-6/ .2266.)*(6.1.25,()28:-3-23/150.2003 .6.2.2002 .:-3-32/705@.106.3.21 «»:-3-03/447 (.,.202000 .2004 .).22 «»(9116.4.2002 .):-3-03/481.6.5.22 «2000 .):-3-03/440 ((»-25 «:-3-02/729 (.2718.212003 .).6.6.»202002 .2003 .).6.7.26 «»:-3-21/170 (2.212002 .2004 .).6.8.28 «»*92004 .314 [I, 3.1]().--227:-3-21/177.92003 .6.9.()31:-3-29/404.,2003 .).2002 .6.10.10 (..15146.11.:1998 .46 (.,122002 .).-6.12.«», «»-:292000 .63.6.13.»:.«2000 .212003 .).217..,56 ()*(7.1.241»:2002 .«224 (14.2004 .).7.2.-,:2002 .15154.7.3.-11 «(8*»:2003 .9)111.2004 .314 [I, 3.1]().-228-7.4.1-«»:-282003 .98.7.5.5- «(2003 .,31)»:117.7.6.-1 «-2 «»,»,-3 «-4 «»:2003 .17.7.:»,,105.1- «»:162002 .
178 (. 82004 .).7.8.1- () «,»:192002 . 155 (. 82004 .).7.9.1«»:162002 . 178 (. 82004 .).7.10.1«»:162002 .178 (.82004 .).7.11.1«,,»:162002178 (. 82004 .).7.12.11 «()»:-.--22926152004 .).5- «(7.13.7.14.2002 .159 (.-,9)»:2003 .82.-1 «»:272001 . 54 (-2 «7.15.(.,.7.16..,.272004 .).»:32004 .).271722002 .-3 «»:32002 .7.17.172 (-4 «191-7.18..,.»:2003 .«27,2004 .).-77.»:192004 . 31.12- «7.19.7.20.2-7.21.3-»:-9«»:2004 .25.19,2004 .31.«( -)»:197.22.-4-2004 .31.«-»:192004 .31.2308.)*(8.1.029-2001 () (.1):62001 .454-.8.2.(015-94 ()002-97):261994 .4/99, 5/99, 6/2000,7/2000).366 (.1, 2, 3) (.8.3.026-2002:252002 .502-(.1/2003).8.4.028-99 (30):1999 .
N 97 (.8.5.013-94:1994 .359) (.1/99, 2/2001)()26-. 1/98).8.6.()005-93:301993 .301 (68/2004)...1–31) (.,8.7..,(26.):1994 .367 (-.,4/2003).8.8.(308.9.:1999 . 97.9000–2001 «.»:*92004 .314 [I, 3.1]202004 .().)-649 [I, 3.2]--231152001 .332-(.72003).8.10.9001–2001 «»:2001 .8.11.333- (.9004–2001 «7.15-.72003)..»:2001 .15334-(2003).8.12.19011-2003 «29/»:2003 .
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