175307 (Economic sanctions), страница 5

In the same rule(situation) there is a majority of countries of the world, except for Great Britain, USA and partly of France, and also several small countries (Holland, Belgium, Switzerland), which, being the creditors of the world, have the active articles of a balance of payments in the form of receipts under the credits, given by them. These active articles can in turn limited to application of the sanctions in the form of temporary suspension of payments on debts of old standing.

Some appreciable investments abroad possess only Great Britain, USA and France. The investments of other states are rather insignificant. It is necessary also to take into account difficulty of mobilization of these capitals in case of necessity, and also aspiration separate êàïèòàëèñòîâ, engaging these investments to evade from transfer to their government.

The efficiency of prohibition of import from country - àãðåññîðà, prohibition depriving this country legal tenders, can have an effect not at once, if countries - àãðåññîðà have significant investments abroad or significant stocks of gold, which she(it) can realize(sell) and to use for payment of the import. Significant gold reserves possess first of all USA and France, and then Great Britain and small countries - Belgium, Holland both Switzerland. Germany and Italy some appreciable stocks of gold have not. The stocks these cannot be filled up with internal production of gold, as this production is distributed on other countries.

It goes without saying, that the efficiency of prohibition of import from country - àãðåññîðà depends on generality(universality) of this measure. If this measure will not be applied by the majority of countries of the world, she(it) will appear much less effective. It is known, that on the members the UN on the average is necessary approximately 88 % of world(global) trade.

The sanctions on the idea should induce àãðåññîðà to stop aggression; they should deprive of his(its) means for continuation of aggression. It is possible only in the event that the raw embargo will deprive country - àãðåññîðà of the most essential means necessary for continuation of war. The country, by which the embargo is applied, should require import raw material have paramount significance. Only in that case of economic sanctions can be effective. It means, that the efficiency of the sanctions is increased in a proportion of growing dependence of this or that country from foreign sources of raw material.

Perfectly understanding it, ýâåíòóàëüíûå àãðåññîðû, first of all Germany, and then Japan and Italy accepted intensive measures for creation of independence of the country from world(global) facilities(economy), for reception inside country of the foodstuffs and raw material necessary for management of war. Despite of these successes, it is possible definitely to tell, that there is no country, which would not depend on foreign raw import.

Determining significance in the world(global) coal market have USA, Great Britain and Germany. Despite of it is have a rather insignificant mineral industry, Poland in view of narrow capacity of a home market is also big exporter óãëÿ. The important place in the coal market is taken by(with) Russia, which export, truth, is insignificant owing to a huge home consumption.

On iron ore the world(global) manufacturers - France, Russia and USA. However production of USA hardly(with an effort) covers a home consumption, and on export nothing acts(arrives).

A determining role on world(global) õëîïêîâîì the market belongs to USA, India, Egypt and Brasil. The large manufacturer is as well China, which consumption is great.

On a wool the large manufacturers - Australia, Argentina, ÞÀÐ, New Zealand and USA. The production of USA completely is consumed by a home market, and this country is import ё rum of a wool.

In the market of aluminium the leading role belongs to USA, Germany, France, Norway, and also Canada.

On antimony the determining role belongs to China.

On àñáåñòó the world(global) manufacturers - Canada, Russia, ÞÀÐ.

On áîêñèòàì the managing role in the market is taken by(with) France, partly USA. The largest manufacturers are also Italy and Yugoslavia.

On õðîìîâîé the ore behind Russia as the large manufacturer is followed by(with) Turkey. An essential role plays also New Êàëåäîíèÿ.

On ìåäè the large manufacturer are by USA, the significant production is present also in Canada and Chile.

On ôîñôàòàì the managing role belongs Ñîåäèí ё ííûì to Staffs(states), France and Germany.

On lead the managing role belongs to Canada, Australia and Mexico. The production in Ñîåäèí ё ííûõ Staffs(states), France and Germany is significant.

On lead the managing role belongs to Canada, Australia and Mexico. The production in Ñîåäèí ё ííûõ Staffs(states) and then in Spain and Germany is significant. However, this product is present in the majority of countries.

The manganese in a fair quantity is present only in Russia and India.

Íèêåëü mainly is present in Canada. The rather significant production is present at France - In New Êàëåäîíèè.

The sulfur is present mainly in Ñîåäèí ё ííûõ Staffs(states) and Italy.

Ïèðèòû are distributed between sets of countries of the world.

Âîëüôðàì is present mainly in China and India.

Zinc - at a fair quantity of countries, including at Germany.

Êàäìèé - in USA, Mexico, Canada, Australia and in France.

Mercury - in USA, Italy and Spain.

Platinum - in Russia, and also in Colombia, Canada, ЮАР1.

From íèæåñëåäóþùåãî of transfer it is visible, as the dependence on the foreign market of separate countries on îïðåäåë ё ííûì to the goods is great.

Great Britain on a clap(cotton), antimony, àñáåñòó, áîêñèòàì, õðîìîâîé to ore, ìàãíåçèòó, manganese, mercury, ìîëèáäåíó, íèêåëþ, platinum, rubber, sulfur - complete dependence on the foreign market; on graphite, lead, petroleum, tin, âîëüôðàìó, wool, zinc - almost complete dependence.

France on õðîìó, clap(cotton), ìàãíåçèòó, íèêåëþ, rubber, tin, âîëüôðàìó - complete dependence; on ìåäè, graphite, lead, manganese, petroleum, sulfur, wool, zinc - almost complete dependence; on antimony and óãëþ - significant dependence.

Germany on áîêñèòàì, õðîìó, clap(cotton), mercury, platinum, rubber, tin, âîëüôðàìó, wool - significant dependence.

Italy on õðîìó, íèêåëþ, platinum, rubber, tin and âîëüôðàìó - complete dependence; on óãëþ, ìåäè, clap(cotton), iron, lead, manganese, petroleum, wool, zinc - almost complete dependence.

Japan on áîêñèòàì, clap(cotton), íèêåëþ, rubber, wool - complete dependence; on antimony, iron, lead, ìàãíåçèòó, mercury, petroleum, platinum, tin, âîëüôðàìó, zinc - almost complete dependence.

Poland on àíòèìîíèþ, áîêñèòàì, õðîìó, ìåäè, clap(cotton), graphite, ìàãíåçèòó, manganese, mercury, íèêåëþ, platinum, rubber, tin, âîëüôðàìó - complete dependence; on iron and wool - significant dependence.

Ñîåäèí ё ííûå Staffs(states) on antimony, íèêåëþ, rubber, tin - complete dependence; on õðîìó and manganese - significant dependence.

Of their analysis âûøåïðèâåä ё ííûõ of the data follows, that main countries have in the hands the control of major raw branches, is Great Britain, USA, Франция1.

The analysis supports all ïðèâåä ё ííûõ of the data the assumption, put forward by us,, that any country is not completely independent from world(global) facilities(economy). USA possess main sources of raw material, however and this country depends on foreign importation under such decisive articles of military import, as íèêåëü, rubber and tin. Is characteristic, what exactly these raw branches almost completely are supervised by the main contender of USA - England. On the other hand, England having in the world rather greater independence, âñ ё represents compact íàðîäíî - economic whole. Âñ ё it can result that in large war with the powerful contender, engaging strong fleet, British empire as the unity can turn to fiction. Between that Great Britain depends on world(global) facilities(economy) almost on all major raw branches, since a clap(cotton) and finishing rubber and petroleum.

Thus, despite of all àâòàðêè÷åñêèå óñòðåìëåíèÿ of countries preparing to new world(global) áîéíå, it was not possible by him(it) till now it will be not possible hereinafter îñòè÷ü of stable independence of world(global) facilities(economy). The limits àâòàðêè÷åñêèì óñòðåìëåíèÿì are fixed largely ðèðîäíûì by distribution of natural riches. The successes of a science have managed to a certain extent ìÿã÷èòü this natural division of labour. So, already there is a synthetic petroleum, rubber and apparently synthetic clap(cotton). However seller's price of these productions a synthetic clap(cotton). However seller's price of these productions in the world åù ё does not allow completely to replace natural kinds of raw material synthetic. Furthermore(in addition to) and the modern science åù ё has not reached complete replacement of all kinds of raw material artificial or substitutes. As far as it is known, åù ё the replacements for example such colour metals, as tin and íèêåëü have not found to themselves.

Taking into account these circumstances, ýâåíòóàëüíûå àãðåññîðû go not only on a line of expansion of internal production of scarce kinds of raw material and experimental ïîñòàíîâêè÷åñêèé a clap(cotton). However seller's price of these productions in the world åù ё does not allow completely to replace natural kinds ñû

Ðüÿ synthetic. Furthermore(in addition to) and the modern science åù ё has not reached complete replacement all

Х kinds of raw material artificial or substitutes. As far as it is known, åù ё the replacements for example such colour metals, as tin and íèêåëü have not found to themselves.

Taking into account these circumstances, ýâåíòóàëüíûå àãðåññîðû go not only on a line of expansion of internal production of scarce kinds of raw material and experimental ïîñòàíîâêáùåíèé. Opposite(on the contrary), such countries, as Italy, Japan and Germany, in view of availability in these countries of the powerful productive device for want of of poverty by natural raw resources would be essentially constrained in the actions by application of embargo on main kinds of raw material.

For want of application of embargo on raw products it is necessary to take into account, first, generality(universality) of a used measure and, secondly, availability in country of stocks of raw material. The members a UN, as ÿâñòâóåò from the analysis of the mentioned above data, supervise from major kinds of raw material only tin, íèêåëü and rubber. But already without USA and Egypt it is impossible with complete efficiency to apply economic sanctions on a clap(cotton); without USA it is impossible to use sanctions on petroleum, ìåäü and sulfur; without Germany and partly USA (though here production óãëÿ in main is consumed inside country) it is impossible to apply embargo on a corner; without USA and Germany it is impossible to apply embargo on iron, steel, zinc and lead; without USA and Italy it is impossible to apply embargo on mercury.

Thus, the main role of USA and significant role of Germany in the market of the major raw goods is ñåðü ё çíûì an obstacle for effective application of economic sanctions a UN.

The question on stocks of raw material has essential significance: if for example on petroleum it is difficult because of necessity to have extremely îáú ё ìíûå of storehouse to create stocks more, than on some months, already on ores iron and manganous, on colour metals etc. it is possible to prepare stocks on some years. It weakens significance of economic sanctions, which in this case can only complicate long and " large war " for country - àãðåññîðà, but cannot prevent military actions àãðåññîðà in the first time.

Summarizing all told, the rather effective means in a case is possible to come to a conclusion, that economic sanctions in the form of prohibition of import from country - àãðåññîðà -:

1). If the structure of import of the given country is those, that the significant share(!long) it(him) is taken by(with) raw products, which importation almost can not be ñîêðàù ё í;

2). If the structure of the payment ё æíîãî of balance of this country is those, that she(it) does not possess instead of dropping out export of the significant payment ё æíûìè means under the invisible articles;

3). If this country does not possess significant stocks of gold and precious metals and does not extract at itself;

4). If she(it) does not possess abroad easily sold investments;

5). If in import of this country the significant sharing(participation) is accepted by(with) countries which are applying sanctions.