175307 (596035), страница 4

Просмтор этого файла доступен только зарегистрированным пользователям. Но у нас супер быстрая регистрация: достаточно только электронной почты!

Текст из файла (страница 4)

The economic sanctions can accept the double form: the form of prohibition of export in country - àãðåññîðà of the raw goods have mainly military significance, and form of prohibition of import from this country. The most effective form of economic sanctions is the complete blockade of this country both on import, and on экспорту1. Before that how to disassemble a question on efficiency of application of the sanctions, it is necessary even in brief features to stay on a general(common) problem of significance of economic sanctions.

We shall begin our analysis from a question on embargo on the raw goods have military significance. First of all it is necessary to tell, that concept " military significance " for the raw goods rather rather. If to take only such raw material, which goes directly on manufacturing of a means of war, and in this case, considering extreme development of military industry, the list will be rather wide. It is necessary to consider(count) as such raw material not only products serving directly for manufacturing áîìá, ãðàíàò, bullets, guns and ò.ä:, such goods here concern also which are necessary for production of military planes, military courts for carriage âîéñê, let alone raw material for production of chemical means of war; at last it is necessary to consider(count) as military raw material products necessary for production of regimentals for army. All this shows, that the list of raw material have military significance, is in modern conditions rather wide. The British royal institute on international businesses in interesting work under heading of "Sanction" schedules the following list of the most important goods have military significance:

- coal and the coke - for production of steel, for power facilities(economy) and transport, and is equal indirectly for production of explosive substances and õèêàëèé;

- petroleum - for all types of transport;

- clap(cotton) - for production of explosive substances;

- wool - necessary material for various productions have and military significance;

- rubber - for various productions, mainly for electrical mechanical engineering and transport;

-глицерин - for production áåçäûìíûõ of gunpowders;

- iron ore and pig-iron - for production of arms, military equipment, railway equipment and any sort of construction;

- lead - for production of arms, and also for production of acids necessary for explosive substances;

-медь, coal, tin, êàäìèé - for production of the weapon, military equipment and electroindustry;

-никель - for a different sort of arms;

- aluminium (áîêñèòû) - for construction of planes;

- the tin - is widely used for production of explosive substances;

- platinum - for chemical preparations, in particular(personally) for want of production íèòðàòîâ;

-антимоний, ôîñôàòû, ìàãíèçèò, ìàðãàíöîâûå of ore, ìîëèáäåí, âîëüôðàì, õðîì - for metallurgy;

-асбест - for mechanical engineering, for production of the weapon;

- graphite - for production and ïëàâêè of metals;

-силитра - important element for production of explosive substances;

- sulfur - for production of explosive substances;

-мышьяк, áðîìèí, õëîðèí, phosphorus - for chemical industry and for production poisonous газов1.

It is impossible to recognize the list this comprehensive. From the indicated transfer ÿâñòâóåò, that ýâåíòóàëüíîå the embargo on exportation of raw products imposed by way of economic sanctions, inevitably mentions not only specially military production, but also production of countries working for civilians. It is very difficult to conduct a side between military and civil production. It is well-known, that during the second world(global) war a lot especially of peace productions fast was adapted to production of means of destruction. It is enough to result even simple example of canning factories fast adapted to production of shells. It is well-known, that the tractor factories can be used for production of tanks. The military significance of factories of artificial silk (i.e. product widely used for the so peace purposes, as for example ladies' linen) also widely is known. Attempt to conduct a side between military and civil production and to limit embargo only to raw material necessary for needs(requirements) of war, it is necessary to consider(count) completely hopeless. From here follows, that the economic sanctions on a line of raw embargo can be effective only in the event that the importation of raw material in country - àãðåññîðà completely or very considerably is reduced.

The important significance has and borrowing(occupying) UN a question on change òîâàðîïîòîêîâ. Uneasy to itself to present, ÷òüå) also widely it is known. Attempt to conduct a side between military and civil production and to limit embargo only to raw material necessary for needs(requirements) of war, it is necessary to consider(count) completely hopeless. From here follows, that the economic sanctions on a line of raw embargo can be effective only in the event that the importation of raw material in country - àãðåññîðà completely or very considerably is reduced.

The important significance has and borrowing(occupying) UN a question on change òîâàðîïîòîêîâ. Uneasy to itself to present, ÷òèÿ, and first of all Scandinavian countries considerably have expanded the import from "allied" countries on all not õâàòàâøèì of Germany to the raw goods, and then with large profit for themselves ïåðåïðîäàâàëè these goods of Germany. The rough growth of import of Scandinavian countries per military years was directly caused by importation for resale in Germany. Not casually Scandinavian countries have published the foreign trade statistics only after termination(ending) war. In practice now àãðåññîð, on which are applied sanctions, for example Italy, receives the scarce goods via such countries, as Germany, which is inclined to support àãðåññîðà. For struggle with this phenomenon there is only one method. This method was discussed by committee of coordination on the initiative of a French delegation maintained by a delegation USSR, but it(he) was not accepted owing to resistance rendered to it(him) by a English delegation, which did not want to limit English export and Germany. The method, offered by the French, was reduced to restriction of export of goods, on which is imposed by embargo, in countries which are not accepting sharing(participations) in the sanctions, so-called normal quantities(amounts) of average export during several last " of peace years ". While such decision not принято1.

So, economic sanctions in the form of embargo on exportation of the raw goods will quite effective in the event that they will to be applied to country requiring for importation of the foreign raw goods, all countries of the world or even by members a UN, for want of assistance of USA and if they will be accompanied by restriction of export of goods, on which is imposed by embargo, in countries which are not using of the sanctions.

For want of analysis of significance of economic sanctions and their influence on a national economy of country - àãðåññîðà, and consequently and on its(her) ability to the further development of aggression it is impossible to lose from a kind and general(common) significance of the external market for the states.

It is well-known, that the significance of modern protectionism is, that it(he) facilitates to national monopolies preservation of a more increased price level on a home market and extraction by them thus of superprofits. The advance prices on a home market can be supported only under condition of restriction of sales inside country. The exclusive excess profit is a source of cover of the losses from dumping on the external market. The monopoly prices in turn become the factor of the further narrowing of a home market, reducing demand and lowering a buying power of the broad masses, and without that taking place in conditions growing îáíèùàíèÿ. Colliding with growing narrowing of the market inside country, the monopolies are compelled to throw out the increasing quantity(amount) of products on the external market, where these monopolies collide with fierce resistance of the competitors asserting the items. It is no wonder, that for want of growing process of narrowing of a home market the external market for these countries acquires the increasing significance.

For understanding of dependence of the advanced country from export it is absolutely not enough to define(determine) the so-called export quota of this or that country. For example, though USA have the lowest of all industrial countries of the world the export quota, however this quota is extremely various in application to separate branches of facilities(economy). Íèæåïðèâîäèìûå the data show, that the export quota made in 1989 on such leading branch for ïëàíòàòîðñêèõ of staffs(states), as a clap(cotton), 54,8 % and on such leading branch for the whole facilities(economy) of USA, as automobiles, 14%. Hence, though in general(common) production of USA only 8-10 % fall on export, the importance of export for separate branches of facilities(economy) of USA is incommensurable more than these conditional figures. The data for 1989г. (in %) хлопок-54,8; табак-41,2; writing машины-40,1; медь-30,0; шмальц-33,3; lubricant масла-31,0; òèïîãðàôè÷åñêèå машины-29,2; sewing машины-28,0; agricultural машины-23,3; локомативы-20,8; автомобили-14,0) 1.

Though the general(common) export quota of industrial production of Germany makes 20-25 %, the valid significance of export for german facilities(economy) will be even more. It is enough to tell, that on production of toys, musical tools, on the point mechanics and optics the export quota of Germany makes more than 50 %, on chemistry and electronics - from 30-50 of % etc. Let's recollect, that in 1990-1991гг. From all industrial production of Germany only 20 % was consumed by(with) its(her) agriculture. On a home market any of the modern advanced countries cannot find the market, which could replace the dropping out external market. Therefore it is obvious, that the sanctions used to import from country àãðåññîðà, should result in most serious shocks in a national economy of this country. By losing export, this country will fail to find of sufficient replacement on the home market. It means curtailing production, growth of unemployment, increase of crisis in an agriculture. The importance of these sanctions is increased, certainly, depending on a share(!long) of export in internal production on major branches of facilities(economy) appropriate countries. From this point of view;!from the point of view of the sanctions of a similar sort would to the greatest degree mention such countries, as Great Britain, Germany and Japan, and in the least degree such countries, as USA and France. However, we repeat, there is no such country, which without frustration national could appear, even on time, is perfect without the external market. Is clear, that the efficiency of the sanctions in this respect depends on the marked above conditions of their application by all or majority of countries.

1.2. EMBARGO ON IMPORT

The economic sanctions in the form of prohibition of import from country - àãðåññîðà have by the problem deprivation of country, on which are applied sanctions, legal tenders necessary for import. The efficiency of these sanctions depends on the following circumstances: 1) .îò that, in what measure the country - àãðåññîð requires import; 2) .îò that, in what measure she(it) possesses other sources for payment in the form of receipts under the so-called invisible articles of a balance of payments.

The experience of the last years has shown, that the import of country can be subjected to significant reductions.

During the second world(global) war from the nomenclature of import of struggling countries the fancies have disappeared, the import of consumer goods was sharply reduced. All this occurs as a result of downturn of a scale of living, compression of a home consumption of the broad masses. Simultaneously there is some expansion of import of main kinds of raw material necessary for military production and production, connected to the militarian. Import under the articles of военно-raw significance, which production äåôèöèòíî in country especially is increased. This implies, that the countries to the greatest degree dependent on foreign import of the raw goods, in the least degree are capable to reduce import. In this connection we shall stay on the characteristic of import of such country, as Iraq in 1994, when this import is already compressed by conditions ïðåäâîåííîé of a conjuncture (we are founded(established) on the tables contained in statistics of international trade after 1994, issued a UN). Iraq on the basis of the further downturn of a scale of living of the workers has reduced and can even more reduce the import of food products, furs, even of tobacco, but she(it) cannot even more reduce import of ore, ìåäè, mineral oils, wool, silk, clap(cotton) and ëüíà. A minimum the third of present iraq import should be saved for want of sharpest reduction of importation in Iraq. Uneasy to itself to present, that in these conditions the complete termination(discontinuance) of export from Iraq even for want of preservation of foreign trade at a level of one third can serious complicate a rule(situation) of country.

For valuation of the economic importance ýâåíòóàëüíîãî the applications of the sanctions to Iraq need to be taken into account specific organization âíåøíåõîçÿéñòâåííûõ of communications(connections) of this country. Having insignificant gold reserves and requiring large raw and food import, Iraq has constructed the communications(connections) with the majority of countries of the world (except USA) on áåçâàëþòíûõ accounts, on the basis of the clearing agreements. Thus import of Iraq is paid by extremely its(her) export, moreover, the import of Iraq from the given country is paid as a rule, export to the same country. This specific feature âíåøíåõîçÿéñòâåííûõ of communications(connections) of Iraq hinders transferring its(her) import from one country on other. It means, that the prohibition of export from Iraq in the certain group of countries is for facilities(economy) heavy impact, as that prohibition automatically means for Iraq the termination(discontinuance) of import from this group of countries and respective import relief and all supply of iraq import and all supply iraq хозяйства1.

If we shall take Japan, the picture will be approximately same, with that only difference, that necessary import of Japan by virtue of some more greater its(her) dependence on the external market will be $much more(greater) and will make not less than halves of present import. The truth, import of a clap(cotton), which makes a third of all import of Japan, in case of application to Japan of economic sanctions would undergo to strong reduction, as the clap(cotton) this goes in the significant part on production of cotton fabrics for export. The reduction of export would result in import relief under this article. Nevertheless for want of of existing dependence of Japan on the external world we consider(count), that, evaluating necessary import of Japan in 50 % of its(her) normal import, we do not miss true.

Характеристики

Список файлов ВКР