Современное развитие экономики Японии и перспективы её развития (1224162), страница 10
Текст из файла (страница 10)
Раздел 3
Проблемы и перспективы развития российско-японских отношений в период экономических санкций
Студент гр.340 Г.Е.Гетта
Консультант кафедры «Иностранные языки и межкультурная коммуникация»
Преподаватель Е.Л. Рябкова
Introduction
The economy of Japan is one of the most developed economies of the world. High technologies (electronics and robotics), transport engineering, including automobile production, shipbuilding, and machine-tool construction are developed here. There is a network of high-speed railroads “Shinkansen” and high-speed highways.
Modern Japan is an advanced state in industrial, scientific and technical relation. The features of economic development of this country, its achievements in advanced branches of scientific and technical progress, ability to quickly react to the changing conditions of the world market attract the attention to Japan all around the world.
Being a small island country practically without natural fuel resources, it takes the 3rd place in the world in the terms of GDP amount and industrial output after such giants as the USA and the Republic of China. The economy of Japan stands on three pillars: high technologies, developed system of export and import, and tourism as well. Certainly, surprising organization and discipline should be added to it. The most perspective and developed industries in Japan are:
- electronics and robotics;
- transport engineering, automobile production and shipbuilding;
- machine-tool construction;
- export of the capital;
- transport infrastructure.
The portion of fishing fleet of the country is 15% of the world’s fishing industry. The structure of export includes transport, motorcycles, cars, chemicals, electronics, and electronic engineering. The structure of import comprises cars and equipment, fuel, food, chemicals, and raw materials.
Japanese capitals “work” in many countries of the world: 42,2% in the USA, 24,2% in Asia, 15,3% in Europe, 9,3% in Latin America.
The relevance of a subject’s choice is explained by the fact that Japan being a state small in size represents extraordinary developed economy; however, its national economy passed a number of stages in its development for such developed industry couldn't appear from scratch. Experience of Japan can help many countries to come to a new level of economic development.
Special attention is paid to Russian-Japanese relations in the period of economic sanctions. It also caused the relevance of the chosen theme of the final qualification work.
The object of the research in the final qualification work is the economy of Japan.
The subject of research is the development features of Japanese economy.
The purpose of the final qualification work is the studying of modern development of Japanese economy and prospects of its development.
To achieve this purpose the following tasks were set:
1) to consider the development features of Japanese economy;
2) to analyze the national economy of Japan;
3) to consider the problems and prospects of development of Russian-Japanese relations in the period of economic sanctions.
While writing the final qualification work, the works of famous economists published in periodicals, various Internet resources were used.
3 Problems and prospects of development of Russian-Japanese relations in the period of economic sanctions
3.1 Problems and prospects of development of Russian-Japanese relations in the period of economic sanctions
From the very beginning of Ukrainian crisis Japan joined sanctions policy against Russia initiated by the West. The first three packages of Japanese sanctions were set not to punish Russia but rather to show solidarity with the West on the Ukrainian question. With the introduction of the fourth sanctions package Japanese sanctions stopped being symbolical and received sectoral character, affecting bilateral cooperation in the financial sphere. There is a question in the connection with the accession of Japan to the pressure campaign on Russia whether it has at this stage a long-term strategy towards Russia and if so, what the content and logical basis are [32].
It is possible to distinguish four basic principles which are the cornerstone of Japanese strategy in the Ukrainian question:
1. Support of the consolidated position with the “Group of seven” and in a broader sense with the western community in general;
2. Close binding of Japanese position to the policy of the USA;
3. Consideration of basic distinctions of the situation in Northeast Asia from the situation in Europe;
4. Carrying out such course which wouldn't block but promoted the realization of a strategic objective of Japanese diplomacy – signing the peace treaty and solution of the territorial problem with Russia.
As for Russia, its position in relation to Japan which strengthened anti-Russian components in its foreign policy, continued to remain neutral and benevolent that was especially noticeable in comparison with the other countries of the West. Besides, unlike the East Asian neighbors of Japan, Russia abstained from criticism of new Japanese course in the field of safety shown in new interpretation of the right for collective self-defense; it didn't use restrictive measures for import of the food or other goods against Japan as it was, for example, in regard to Europe.
The aspiration of Russia to establish originally neighborly relationship with Japan has no tactical character, and reflects Russian long-term strategy shown during the period preceding Ukrainian crisis. Yet in 2012, despite the discontent of Beijing, Russia brought ESPO to the Pacific coast having allowed Japan and other Pacific countries to buy oil of Eastern Siberia. When Chinese ice breaker “Snow Dragon” became the first Chinese vessel running the Northern Sea Route in the same 2012, Russia supported the nomination of Japan in the Arctic Council, having at the same time ignored Chinese demand. In 2013 Moscow supported the nomination of Tokyo as the hostess of the Olympic Games 2020 [32].
Thus, Russia seeks to carry out balanced and weighed policy in the relations with Japan.
Great development was gained by personal diplomacy based on the confidential relations of the Russian president and Japanese prime minister. Since the moment of S. Abe's arrival to the power in December 2012 six summits have already taken place. Even in 2014 the dialogue of two leaders didn't stop: there were some telephone conversations, exchange of personal messages and birthday greetings, as well as two meetings during the summits of large international forums. During the last meeting on November 9, 2014 at the summit APEC in Beijing, the parties having stated the positions on the events in Ukraine; they confirmed the intention to continue the dialogue on the peace treaty and to carry out preparation for V. Putin's visit to Japan planned for 2015.
What prospects can be expected in Russian-Japanese relations in the current situation? Three main scenarios are observed: confrontational, “neutral” and optimistic.
The confrontational scenario assumes further escalation of crisis in Ukraine, more and more active participation of Japan in the war of sanctions against Russia, and folding hard-established contacts and decrease of economic cooperation. This course will bring no positive results for national interests of Japan. The territorial problem won't have any prospects of decision. Russia will continue to drift in the direction of China, both economically and politically.
According to the “neutral” scenario Japan will continue the policy of delicate balancing, continuing to adhere to solidarity with the West, and avoiding irreversible deterioration of the relations with Moscow. The sanctions won’t be significantly amplified or removed by Tokyo. This most possible path is associated with certain risks linked with the primary use of the reactive approach, i.e. decision-making “according to the situation”. The situation could rapidly deteriorate for Japan against its will, for example, if the response to any event will be delayed, inaccurate, or it does not occur at all.
Finally, within the third positive scenario Japan actively develops economic and political relations with Russia, having broken away from a united front of the West and having cancelled anti-Russian sanctions. This scenario significantly raises the possibility for the peace treaty conclusion and the solution of the territorial delimitation problem. Successful chances of this scenario are increasing because after the victory of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan in the elections to the lower house of parliament, Abe will have more “free hands” in the policy with Russia, due to stronger domestic positions, reputation as a “nationalist”, which is difficult to accuse of betraying national interests even in case of a certain flexibility [32].
Its positive role in this regard can play the fact that Ukrainian business does not directly affect Japan, so this campaign will not be perceived by public opinion as a “betrayal”. At last, there is a traditional anti-Americanism in Japanese political circles based on the recognition of non-identity, and in some cases significant differences in Japanese and American national interests.
It is difficult to say which scenario will be realized, however a general vector in Russian-Japanese relations will be set most likely by the situation in Russian-American connections. The situation in Ukraine will be the key moment here. If it is stabilized Japan, the relations with which are better than with the western countries, will be able objectively to become some kind of a bridge for establishment of informal contacts of Russian government with the West. It is possible to expect that the need for normalization of these contacts next year will only increase due to the proposed updating of the place and role of Russia in international relations.
However already now it is clear that Japan understanding that it isn't necessary to count on a rapid progress in the solution of territorial dispute with Moscow, most likely, won't hurry with new initiatives towards Russia. Besides declining economic situation in Russia will push Tokyo to a more reserved approach so that it will see Moscow as more “pliable”.
3.2 Japanese investments into Russia
Direct accumulative investment of Japanese business into Russian industry for the period up to 2025 is estimated in Japan at about $ 15 billion contrary to $ 2.7 billion at the beginning of 2015. But for this purpose it is necessary to improve investment climate in Russia and to provide punctual implementation of investment obligations by both parties. These are the main evaluations of recent conference of Russian-Japanese business council in Moscow and the fourth meeting of Russian-Japanese advisory board in Vladivostok on economic modernization of Russia [10].
At the APEC summit in Beijing in 2014 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe handed the list of perspective investment projects to the Russian representatives. Their general investment cost exceeds $20 billion, and at least a third of this amount relates to the projects in mining and processing industry. Geographically about 40% of estimated industrial investments cover the European part of Russia. Russian-Japanese business forums have recently collected an unprecedented number of businessmen from Japan. And a variety of companies irrespective of their size or geographical location show their interest in doing business in Russia. In 2015 a diversified Russian business mission is planned in Tokyo, where many joint projects and options for funding will be clarified.
According to the chairman of Russian-Japanese committee in economic cooperation Motoyuki Oka “in foreseeable prospect direct Japanese investments in the Russian Federation can reach $30 billion, and their range will include many subsectors of the industry, energy, agrarian and industrial complex, resource-saving and transport infrastructure”. And, according to Oka Japanese business doesn't intend to be limited to the neighboring regions of Russia and will “integrate” more actively into the European part of Russia. The example of that is a large project “Komatsu” in Yaroslavl region where annual release of 7 thousand loaders and to 3 thousand excavators is planned.
Thus both parties consider that creation of new transport corridors between the Russian Federation and Japan is the major geographical condition for the growth of Japanese investments in Russian industry and in economy in general. Creation of a complex corridor with participation of Trans-Siberian Railway, BAM and the project of a tunnel “Sakhalin - Khabarovsk Krai” is reasonable. These arteries are attractive for investment and trade opportunities in Japan, neighboring South Korea and Taiwan in Russia.
But the implementation of joint industrial and other investment projects in the Russian Federation involves a number of problems. According to the deputy minister of economy of Japan Tokaiti Nishioka and other Japanese experts these problems are backwardness of infrastructure, cases of contract conditions’ violation by Russian partners, inadequate study of many business plans. Besides, you need a large number of permits for investments’ admission, and this is often an insurmountable “wall” for Japanese business. “Prompt resolution of these issues, according to the Japanese side, will significantly increase the flow of direct productive investment in the economy of all the regions of the Russian Federation”.
The Ministry of Development of the Far East of the Russian Federation studies a question of creation of a specialized territory of advanced development (TAD) in the Far East under the control of a Japanese company. This TAD will be focused on business of the country of the rising sun.
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