диссертация (1169188), страница 89
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This development,according to western legal scholars, would necessitate the elaboration of new legaland safety rules, different from the ones in place now. They note that that coulddeprive both Canada and Russia of their current prestige, the very legal possibilityof regulating navigation and, consequently, a source of additional income fromcharges related to foreign navigation.534A different perspective on the navigational prospects focuses onenvironmental aspects and ensuring the ecological safety of navigation. Due to thegrowth of navigation, a question arises on the development of ecological standardsfor ships, as well as on the elaboration of agreements for the entire Arctic maritimespace to prevent and eliminate the consequences of pollution.
Some of these issuesare discussed in the IMO Polar Code,535 which, as anticipated, has already attainedthe status of binding treaty document.536Foreign publications on this topic put forward the idea of the need andbenefit of close US-EU cooperation in protecting the vulnerable marine ecosystem534Atland K., op. cit., P.
213.535IMO International Maritime Organization. Guidelines for ships operating in Arctic ice-covered waters.MSC/Circ. 1056, MEPC/Circ.399. International Maritime Organization, London, 23 Dec. 2002.http://www.5.imo.org/SharePoint/blastDatARcticOceannly.asp536IMO Guidelines for ships operating in polar waters.
Resolution A. 1024 (26). International MaritimeOrganization.London,2Dec.2009.http://www.arcticportal.org/images/stories/Arctic_Shipping_Portlet/A.102426_Guidelines_for_ships_operating_in_polar_waters.pdf. For more details on the Polar Code see the Moscow Journal of International Law. No. 4. 2015.391of the Arctic and perfecting the regulation of navigation, in particular within theIMO, in order to implement the provisions of the Polar Code. The US and EU, asAnglo-American studies claim, could also join efforts in developing the maritimeinfrastructure; in particular, set up an exchange of NASA and ESA maritimenavigation observations. Moreover, they could, acting together, and with the otherArctic states, come forward with a proposal on granting to the entire or a part ofthe Arctic Ocean the status of a “Particularly Sensitive Sea Area” subject to morestringent environmental standards for ships and definitions of navigation routes.537Thereby, apparently, making Russia and Canada unable to enact such nationalstandards under UNCLOS Art.
234.So, as a preliminary conclusion, I should note that foreign scholarly legaland political literature demonstrates a trend for viewing the Arctic as a potentialzone of increased tensions and conflicts – between both the Arctic states andbetween them and the rest of the world. This far from glittering future is called a“resource race”, an “Arctic war” and even a “battle for the Arctic ecosystem.”Potential conflicts are anticipated based on the premise that history knows veryfew regions with abundant resources and without final boundaries that would at thesame time be free from conflict.
That is one of the reasons why scholarly attentionis focused on studying the prospects of conflicts emerging in the Arctic.Another reason distinguished by anglophone legal scholars is the rhetoric ofthe Arctic states’ leaders.538 And only in the third place – that some actions ofstates are not quite thought-through from the standpoint of international law. Here,anxiety was caused first and foremost by the planting of Russia’s flag by A.N.Chilingarov’s group in the North Pole point on the seabed. Some legal scholarshave viewed this as an attempt to show symbolically that the North Pole belonged537Cavalieri S.
and Kraemer R.A., op. cit., P. 290.538HarperS.Arcticsovereigntyan‘importantissue’.http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20070802/article_claim_070802/.CTVnews,2Aug2007.392to Russia, and as a potential source of future interstate conflicts.539 Which iscertainly not the case as was shown in Russian legal teachings.At the same time, many Arctic states’ leaders, as well as legal scholars makea great effort to show that a focus on “hard competition” in the Arctic and onrelevant conflicts is erroneous and counterproductive.
Practically all leaders ofArctic states referred to the need to develop cooperation. And, as referred to above,the May 2008 Ilulissat Declaration signed by the five Arctic states emphasizestheir adherence to the applicable wide international law framework, as well as theirreadiness to settle territorial issues.540§ 2. General characteristic of the prospects of international legalregulation of potential conflicts due to climate change in the ArcticAnglo-American studies reiterate the thesis that the thawing of ice in theArctic Ocean has sped up, 541 as compared to even the worst-case scenariodescribed only a few years ago in the report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change in 2011.542 But the global consequences of this process are notdescribed in full in the natural science.
Reduction of the ice cover can expandeconomic opportunities for business in energy, sea transportation, fishing andtourism. At the same time, intensified economic activity, taken together withclimate change and other forms of negative impact on the environment, representsa grave danger for the fragile northern nature, as well as the traditional habitat andlifestyles of the indigenous peoples of the north.In the light of this climate change that entails changes of a social andeconomic nature, a question arises concerning forming such a legal framework thatwould make environmental standards and social factors the cornerstone of539Chivers C.J.
Russia plants underwater flag at North Pole. The New York Times. 2 Aug 2007.http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/02/world/europe/02end-arctic.html540IlulissatDeclaration(2008)ArcticOceanconference.http://www.oceanlaw.org/downloads/arctic/Ilulissat_Declaration.pdf28May2008.Ilulissat.541Stroeve J., Holland M., Meier W., Scambos T., Serreze M. (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast.Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, L09501, doi:10, 1029/2007GL029703.542IPCC (2007) Fourth assessment report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
http://www.ipcc.ch/.Accessed on 20 Aug. 2011.393exploitation of the natural resources of the Arctic. However, the legal regulation onthe Arctic is, as noted above here, a “patchwork” of universal, regional, bilateraland domestic rules. Development of a legal framework in areas such as energy, seatransportation, fishing and tourism, as well as in the social sphere is conditional onthe interaction and active cooperation of the Arctic states.
At the same time, thiscooperation is objectively of interest to many other states as well due to theimportance of the Arctic for the biosphere, as already discussed above.Researchers view the prospects of such cooperation differently. Accordingto some scenarios, the availability of resources, especially energy resources,coupled with a not entirely clear legal framework, may intensify competition forthem and result in increased interstate tensions.This scenario can be seen in a number of official documents. Thus, in March2008, the EU published a report entitled “Climate change and internationalsecurity,” among other things, touching upon the topic of potential resource-relatedconflicts in the Arctic.
Increased availability of vast energy resources in the Arcticis changing the geo-strategic dynamic of the region, with potential impact forinternational stability and European security interests, the Report states. It alsoemphasizes heightened competition for access and control over energy resourceswhich will, according to the Report’s authors, cause tensions around territorialissues in the Arctic to increase.543The US has also been using the topic of potential interstate conflictsconcerning Arctic resources as an argument for increasing military presence in theregion. A document entitled “A cooperative strategy for 21st century seapower”published in 2007 suggests that the warming of the climate, gradually opening newArctic areas for economic activities, leads not only to new opportunities for543European Union (2008) Climate change and international security.
Paper from the high representative and theEuropeanCommissiontotheEuropeanCouncil,3May2008.http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/reports/99387pdf394exploiting natural resources there, but also to the formation of new navigationalroutes. This development may create new opportunities for economic growth.544These and some other statements may evidence a trend, existing in someArctic states, to view their northern neighbours as potential “rivals” in using theoffshore oil and gas resources of the Arctic.
It is also possible that the existingterritorial disputes in the Arctic will become more relevant by 2030 and will spuran increasing military presence in the region. At the same time, the study notes thatit is hardly reasonable to talk about an impending armed conflict. States wouldprefer to use international law to resolve controversies: their economic interests inthe region, including opportunities for attracting foreign investors, are too high.545As emphasized by Idean Salehyan, scholarly opinion that climate change will leadto conflicts, varies considerably.546 The link between climate change and potentialconflicts is far from obvious.
One cannot disregard the influence of many externalfactors, including the role of regional organisations, the public and business,resource pressing, etc. In general, although it is noted that the issue of the linkbetween climate change and potential growth of tensions in interstate relations isunderstudied, no serious complications in the relations of Arctic states areanticipated. Barry Zellen underscores in his new book that armed force will bepresent in the region and will to some extent define the availability of resources,but a more likely scenario would imply updating the Arctic boundaries viascience.547 Legal literature stresses the positive aspects of a coordinated position ofthe Arctic states; their adherence to international law, including UNCLOS (which544UnitedStatesNavy(2007)Acooperativehttp://www.nay.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdfstrategyfor21stcenturyseapower.545Atland R.
The Security Implication of Climate Change in the Arctic Ocean. / Environmental Security in theArctic Ocean. Ed. by P.A. Berkman. Dordrecht, 2013, P. 209.546Salehyan I. (2008) From climate change to conflict? No consensus yet. // Journal of Peace Research 45 (3), P.315–326.547Zellen B.S. (2009) Arctic doom, Arctic boom: the geopolitics of climate change in the Arctic. Praeger, SantaBarbara.395codifies many customary norms) that they affirmed once again in the IlulissatDeclaration.548Therefore, at present, there are both defined areas of cooperation in theArctic and political opportunities, as premises for the development of legalregulation corresponding to the new Arctic environment that is forming under theinfluence of climate change.Interesting considerations that can apparently be of practical value for theindigenous peoples of the Arctic have been expressed by the authors of a paperentitled ‘Social Dimensions of Climate Change’.549 The social aspects of climatechange are, according to them, due to at least four principal factors.
Firstly, theseare reflected in the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, albeitnot very clearly. Secondly, including social aspects into climate policy is anecessary condition for ensuring a good life, security, the health of the population,especially those belonging to particularly vulnerable groups. Thirdly, theefficiency of measures taken in view of climate change multiplies when socialfactors are taken into account. And finally, the topics of climate change,sustainable development and human rights both by their goals and way ofachieving the same have a lot in common. Uniting them, scholars believe, couldincrease their performance remarkably.
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