Учёт и анализ собственного капитала в организациях металлургического производства, страница 4

& AMORT, mln $12651 2721 2781 2841 291-1 286-1 312-1 338-1 365-1 392MINUS NET WORKING CAPITAL CHANGE, mln $-70-74-78-81-86FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM, mln $725699700695700MINUS CAPEX, mln $:.3 – DCF EVRAZPresent Value of FCF, mln $2 945PV of Terminal Value 2%, mln $7 245Enterprise Value, mln $Net debt, mln $10 190-6337Equity Value, mln $3 852,78Shares Outstanding, $1 339,03Share Price DCF, $2,88:..4 – WACC EVRAZCOST OF EQUITY, %9,3COST OF DEBT, %5,0WEIGHT OF EQUITY, %29,7WEIGHT OF DEBT, %70,3WACC (A*C+B*D), %6,27COST OF DEBT, %5,00DEBT WEIGHTINGMKT VALUE OF LT DEBT, mln $6 337TOTAL FIRM VALUE, mln $9 015DEBT WEIGHTING, %70,3RISK FREE RATE, %3,63EQUITY BETA1,05EQUITY MKT RISK PREM, %9,0POLITICAL RISK PREM, %0,0COST OF EQUITY, %9,3EQUITY WEIGHTINGCURRENT PRICE, $2,00SHARES OUTSTANDING, $1 339,0CURRENT MARKET CAP, mln $2 678,1TOTAL FIRM VALUE, mln $9 015,1EQUITY WEIGHTING, %:29,7..180.5 – Income Statement Severstal($million)200812Steel Russia% of RevenueYOY % GrowthSteel International% of RevenueYOY % GrowthResources% of RevenueYOY % GrowthCorporate% of RevenueTotal RevenueGross ProfitGross Margin,%Selling General & Admin Exp.as a % of RevenueR & D Exp.Other Operating Expense/(Income)Other Operating Exp., TotalOperating IncomeOperating Margin,%Net Interest Exp.Other Non-Operating Inc.

(Exp.)EBT Excl. Unusual ItemsUnusual Items20102011201220132014E2015E2016E2017E345678910111212 0646 1798 81510 5478 6179 3209 3089 71510 09810 55875,168,168,866,761,163,363,564,564,965,2–––––8,2-0,14,43,94,62 9682 3132 9123 4223 8793 8923 8493 9784 0944 23818,525,522,721,627,526,526,326,426,326,2–––––0,3-1,13,42,93,52 4531 3532 7323 7113 0052 9262 9542 8432 8862 92715,314,921,323,521,319,920,218,918,518,1–––––-2,61,0-3,71,51,4-1 419-769-1 639-1 868-1 397-1 424-1 453-1 482-1 512-1 542––––-13,2-9,5-9,7-9,7-9,5-9,316 0669 07612 81915 81214 10414 71314 65815 05415 56616 181-43,541,2-1,6-10,84,3-0,42,73,44,010 5436 9028 71710 90310 78511 24811 20211 50211 88912 3555 5232 1754 1024 9093 3183 4653 4563 5533 6773 82634,424,032,031,023,523,623,623,623,623,1 7971 2761 5761 8261 8031 8391 8761 9131 9521 99111,214,112,311,512,812,512,812,712,512,3–––––00000YOY % GrowthCost Of Goods Sold20092041571531471141311311311321322 0021 4331 7281 9741 9171 9702 0072 0452 0832 1233 5227422 3742 9361 4011 4961 4491 5081 5941 70321,98,218,518,69,910,29,910,010,210,5-269,1-368,1-517,2-386,5-372,8-391,4-411,0-431,6-453,1-475,8-341-15487-11685000002 9112201 9432 4331 1141 1041 0381 0761 1411 228326-116-269-4,2-77–––––181.5345678Impairment of Goodwill––––––Asset Writedown––––––Other Unusual Items–––––3 23710416742 4293 237,30103,601 674,10490,4110,2427,315,1106,4-685,1012EBT Incl.

Unusual ItemsPretax IncomeIncome Tax ExpenseTax Rate, %Earnings of Discontiued operations9101112––––––––––––1 0371 1041 0381 0761 1411 2282 428,801 036,901 104,061 037,781 076,361 140,571 227,61466,0263,5280,6263,7273,5289,8312,025,519,225,425,425,425,425,425,4-1 093,50-1 761,40210,8046,40––––––2 061,80-1 100,10-514,602 173,60819,80823,49774,06802,83850,73915,65Minority interest-33,0081,90-60,30-138,90-57,80-98,35-98,35-98,35-98,35-98,35Net Income2 028,80-1 018,20-574,902 034,70762,00725,14675,71704,48752,38817,30––––––––––2,014-1,013-0,5722,0240,9000,8570,7980,8320,8890,9661 007,201 005,201 005,201 005,20846,40846,40846,40846,40846,40846,40Net Income to companyPer Share ItemsDiluted EPSWeighted Avg.

Diluted Shares Out.:.182.6 – Severstal Valuation20132014201520162017EBITDA, mln $2 1822 1562 2362 3442 476PRETAX PROFIT, mln $1 1041 0381 0761 1411 228TAX RATE, %25,425,425,425,425,4AFTER-TAX EBT, mln $1 2151 1851 2341 3041 391686707728750773-1 338-1 339-1 341-1 342-1 343-50-48-45-43-41505577669ADD DEPR. & AMORT, mln $MINUS CAPEX, mln $MINUS NET WORKING CAPITALCHANGE, mln $FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM, mln $513:.7 – DCF SeverstalPresent Value of FCF, mln $2 388PV of Terminal Value 2%, mln $8 276Enterprise Value, mln $10 663Net debt, mln $-4 121Equity Value, mln $6 542,48Shares Outstanding, $810,60Share Price DCF, $8,07:..8 – WACC SeverstalCOST OF EQUITY, %8,5COST OF DEBT, %7,5WEIGHT OF EQUITY, %51,0WEIGHT OF DEBT, %49,0WACC (A*C+B*D) , %8,03COST OF DEBT, %7,50DEBT WEIGHTINGMKT VALUE OF LT DEBT, mln $3 880TOTAL FIRM VALUE, mln $9 846DEBT WEIGHTING, %39,4RISK FREE RATE, %3,60EQUITY BETA1,05EQUITY MKT RISK PREM, %8,3POLITICAL RISK PREM, %0,0COST OF EQUITY, %8,5EQUITY WEIGHTINGCURRENT PRICE, $SHARES OUTSTANDING, $7,36810,6CURRENT MARKET CAP, mln $5 966,0TOTAL FIRM VALUE, mln $9 846,0EQUITY WEIGHTING, %:51,0.780.183.9 – Income Statement NLMK($million)200712Steel% of RevenueYOY % GrowthForeign Rolled Products% of RevenueYOY % GrowthLong Products% of RevenueYOY % GrowthMining% of RevenueAll Other% of RevenueCoke-Chemical% of RevenueCorporate% of RevenueTotal RevenueGross ProfitGross Margin,%Selling General & Admin Exp.as a % of RevenueDepreciation&Amortizationas a % of RevenueOther Operating Expense/(Income)200920102011201220132014E2015E2016E2017E3456789101112136 9719 8865 2577 0549 0288 6768 6238 4428 6398 8039 02390,384,585,684,577,071,471,972,172,672,772,9––––––-0,6-2,12,31,92,5––4117002 3853 4683 4453 3733 4523 5183 606––6,78,420,328,528,728,829,029,029,1––––––-0,7-2,12,31,92,5621 8378831 3771 7941 6451 6781 7281 7801 8511 8880,815,714,416,515,313,514,014,815,015,315,3––––––2,03,03,04,02,08899335169131 4401 3381 3031 3151 2661 2851 30311,58,08,410,912,311,011,211,111,110,510,4130895111111113,61,50,10,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,06851 147–––––––––8,99,8–––––––––-1 017-2 193-931-1 694-2 919-2 971-3 060-3 151-3 246-3 343-3 444-13,2-18,7-15,2-20,3-24,9-24,4-25,5-26,9-27,3-27,6-27,87 71911 6996 1408 35111 72812 15711 99011 70711 89212 11412 37751,6-47,536,00,33,7-1,4-2,41,61,92,23 5695 8093 6724 9337 7808 4948 1477 9368 0428 1728 3304 1505 8902 4683 4183 9483 6623 8433 7713 8503 9414 04753,850,340,240,933,730,132,132,232,432,532,765711019529721 5291 5921 5671 5371 5691 6071 6508,59,415,511,613,013,113,113,113,213,313,3408499478469589768000005,34,37,85,65,06,30,00,00,00,00,086100102123165170100104108112117YOY % GrowthCost Of Goods Sold2008184.912Other Operating Exp., TotalOperating IncomeOperating Margin,%Net Interest Exp.Other Non-Operating Inc.

(Exp.)EBT Excl. Unusual ItemsUnusual ItemsEBT Incl. Unusual ItemsPretax IncomeIncome Tax ExpenseTax Rate, %Net Income to company3456789101112131 1511 7001 5321 5652 2832 5291 6671 6411 6771 7191 7672 9984 1909361 8531 6661 1332 1772 1302 1722 2222 28138,835,815,222,214,29,318,218,218,318,318,468,3-117,0-111,229,229,5-39,9-41,9-44,0-46,2-48,5-50,9-23-699-252-17159-137-41-43-44-46-473 0443 3745731 7111 7549562 1352 08621262 1742 23062-265-249-38-17,4-41–––––3107310932416731736915213520862126217422303 106,603 108,95323,531 673,131 736,31915,142 134,822 086,172 126,312 173,852 229,68837,0703,5181,8391,0421,0304,7597,7584,1595,4608,7624,326,922,656,223,424,233,328,028,028,028,028,02 269,602 405,47141,741 282,161 315,28610,431 537,071 502,041 530,941 565,171 605,37Minority interest-23,501,73116,9631,0742,19-14,6013,8013,8013,8013,8013,80Net Income2 246,102 407,20258,701 313,221 357,47595,831 550,871 515,841 544,741 578,971 619,16–––––––––––Diluted EPS3,7484,0170,4322,1912,2650,9942,5882,5292,5772,6352,702Weighted Avg.

Diluted Shares Out.599,32599,32599,32599,32599,32599,32599,32599,32599,32599,32599,32Per Share Items:.185.10 – NLMK Valuation20132014201520162017EBITDA, mln $2 9752 9683 0523 1463 250PRETAX PROFIT, mln $2 1352 0862 1262 1742 230TAX RATE, %28,028,028,028,028,0AFTER-TAX EBT, mln $1 5791 5461 5771 6141 656798838880924970MINUS CAPEX, mln $MINUS NET WORKING CAPITALCHANGE, mln $-1 250-1 275-1 300-1 326-1 353-94-84-76-68-61FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM, mln $1 0341 0251 0811 143ADD DEPR. & AMORT, mln $:.11 – DCF NLMKPresent Value of FCF, mln $4 359PV of Terminal Value 2%, mln $11 576Enterprise Value, mln $15 935Net debt, mln $-3476Equity Value, mln $12 458,50Shares Outstanding, $599,32Share Price DCF, $$20,79:..12 – WACC NLMKCOST OF EQUITY, %9,3COST OF DEBT, %5,0WEIGHT OF EQUITY, %70,3WEIGHT OF DEBT, %29,7WACC (A*C+B*D) , %8,00COST OF DEBT, %5,00DEBT WEIGHTINGMKT VALUE OF LT DEBT, mln $TOTAL FIRM VALUE, mln $3 47611 717DEBT WEIGHTING, %29,7RISK FREE RATE, %3,63EQUITY BETA1,05EQUITY MKT RISK PREM, %9,0POLITICAL RISK PREM, %0,0COST OF EQUITY, %9,3EQUITY WEIGHTINGCURRENT PRICE, $13,75SHARES OUTSTANDING, $599,3CURRENT MARKET CAP, mln $TOTAL FIRM VALUE, mln $EQUITY WEIGHTING, %:8 240,711 717,070,3.1 212.186.13 - Income Statement($million)200712Steel Russia% of RevenueYOY % Growth20082009YOY % GrowthCoal% of RevenueYOY % GrowthCorporate% of RevenueTotal RevenueYOY % GrowthCost Of Goods SoldGross ProfitGross Margin,%Selling General & Admin Exp.as a % of RevenueR & D Exp.Other Operating Expense/(Income)Other Operating Exp., TotalOperating IncomeOperating Margin,%Net Interest Exp.Other Non-Operating Inc.

(Exp.)2011201220132014E2015E2016E2017E3456789101112138 19710 5505 0297 4368 9148 6538 5588 3798 5748 7378 956100,0100,099,096,395,892,892,893,393,293,193,1––––––-1,1-2,12,31,92,5138458778773757774789809Steel Turkey% of Revenue20100,00,00,01,84,98,38,48,48,48,48,4––––––-0,7-2,12,31,92,5––945566494694574594394444480,00,01,97,27,05,05,05,14,84,74,7––––––-2,60,5-4,21,00,9––-42-411-715-572-566-618-585-590-598–––––-7,7-6,2-6,3-6,7-6,2-6,18 19710 5505 0817 7199 3069 3289 2218 9779 2039 3809 615–28,7–51,9-11,80,2-1,1-2,62,51,92,55 7107 8353 9405 2336 8566 9876 8396 6466 8016 9207 0802 4872 7151 1412 4862 4502 3412 3832 3312 4022 4602 53530,325,722,532,226,325,125,826,026,126,226,49181 06269971265270267065667569271311,210,113,89,27,07,57,37,37,37,47,4––––––00000741561311 1041 3491 3071 3281 3321 3361 3401 3449921 2188301 8162 0012 0091 9981 9882 0112 0322 0571 4951 49731167044933238534439142947818,214,26,18,74,83,64,23,84,24,65,046,0-18,0-76,0-127,0-170,0-205,0-215,3-226,0-237,3-249,2-261,6114-14-190-188-296-106-111-117-123-129-135187.133456789101112131 6551 46545355-1721170118153179216-23-371206-60-125,0-83–––––Impairment of Goodwill–––––––––––Asset Writedown–––––––––––Other Unusual Items–––––––––––12EBT Excl.

Unusual ItemsUnusual ItemsEBT Incl. Unusual Items1 6321 094251295-142-621701181531792161 632,001 094,00251,00295,00-142,00-62,00169,56117,80153,24179,46216,28320,025,038,058,0-16,031,033,923,630,635,943,319,62,315,119,711,3-50,020,020,020,020,020,01 312,001 069,00213,00237,00-126,00-93,00135,6594,24122,59143,57173,03Minority interest-4,006,0019,0017,006,002,004,004,004,004,004,00Net Income1 308,001 075,00232,00254,00-120,00-91,00139,6598,24126,59147,57177,03–––––––––––Pretax IncomeIncome Tax ExpenseTax Rate, %Net Income to companyPer Share ItemsDiluted EPSWeighted Avg. Diluted Shares Out.0,1210,0960,0210,023-0,011-0,0080,0130,0090,0110,0130,01610 830,3011 160,3011 098,9011 118,1011 007,1011 007,9011 007,9011 007,9011 007,9011 007,9011 007,90:.188.14 – MMK Valuation201320142015201620171 3841 3931 4931 5861 693PRETAX PROFIT, mln $170118153179216TAX RATE, %20,020,020,020,020,0AFTER-TAX EBT, mln $351320360393435ADD DEPR.