Учёт и анализ собственного капитала в организациях металлургического производства (1142899), страница 5

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& AMORT, mln $1 0001 0501 1021 1571 215MINUS CAPEX, mln $MINUS NET WORKING CAPITALCHANGE, mln $-914-960-1 008-1 058-1 11151-48-46-43-41FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM, mln $487362409449498EBITDA, mln $:.15 – DCF MMKPresent Value of FCF, mln $1 754PV of Terminal Value 2%, mln $5 328Enterprise Value, mln $7 082Net debt, mln $-3 456Equity Value, mln $3 625,52Shares Outstanding, $11 007,90Share Price DCF, $0,33:..16 – WACC MMKCOST OF EQUITY, %8,5COST OF DEBT, %7,5WEIGHT OF EQUITY, %51,3WEIGHT OF DEBT, %48,7WACC (A*C+B*D) , %8,00COST OF DEBT, %7,50DEBT WEIGHTINGMKT VALUE OF LT DEBT, mln $3 880TOTAL FIRM VALUE, mln $6 400DEBT WEIGHTING, %60,6RISK FREE RATE, %3,60EQUITY BETA1,05EQUITY MKT RISK PREM, %8,3POLITICAL RISK PREM, %0,0COST OF EQUITY, %8,5EQUITY WEIGHTINGCURRENT PRICE, $SHARES OUTSTANDING, $0,2311 007,9CURRENT MARKET CAP, mln $2 519,8TOTAL FIRM VALUE, mln $6 399,8EQUITY WEIGHTING, %:51,3..189.17 – Income Statement Mechel($million)20071220102011201220132014E2015E2016E2017E3456789101112135 3603 3025 8347 4657 0717 0806 9327 0937 2287 40966,053,957,459,959,562,764,263,765,265,465,8––––––0,1-2,12,31,92,56375854316296745045014905025115249,55,97,56,55,44,54,54,54,64,64,7––––––-0,7-2,12,31,92,55991 0288731 0581 2451 2411 2661 3041 3431 3971 4259,010,315,210,99,911,011,512,012,312,612,7––––––2,03,03,04,02,01 9714 5662 1123 8565 1924 0153 7813 7993 6393 6753 70929,545,936,739,641,435,636,434,834,932,932,6-937-1 589-964-1 631-2 035-1 557-1 603-1 652-1 701-1 752-1 805-14,0-16,0-16,7-16,7-16,2-13,8-490 542,8-502 745,4-515 251,5-528 068,7-541 204,76 6849 9515 7549 74712 54111 27511 02410 87410 87611 05911 262–48,9-42,269,426,0-10,1-2,2-1,40,01,71,84 1674 9823 9616 1808 2378 0247 5267 4067 3907 4977 61625174 9691 7943 5674 3043 2513 4983 4683 4863 5623 646Gross Margin,%37,749,931,236,634,328,831,731,932,132,232,4mln $1 0391 9131 4631 9332 3652 3712 1992 1802 1912 2392 292as a % of Revenue15,519,225,419,818,921,019,920,020,120,220,31104-38-12-128000000,01,0-0,7-0,10,00,30,00,00,00,00,0751141021089510131001041081121171 1152 1311 5272 0302 4593 4132 2992 2842 2992 3522 4081 4022 8382671 5371 845-1621 2001 1841 1871 2111 23721,028,54,615,814,7-1,410,910,910,910,911,0% of RevenueYOY % GrowthFerroalloys% of RevenueYOY % GrowthPower% of RevenueYOY % GrowthMining% of Revenuemln $% of RevenueTotal RevenueYOY % GrowthCost Of Goods SoldGross ProfitSelling General & Admin Exp.20094 415SteelCorporate2008Provision for Bad Debtsas a % of RevenueOther Operating Expense/(Income)Other Operating Exp., TotalOperating IncomeOperating Margin,%190.1712Net Interest Exp.Other Non-Operating Inc.

(Exp.)EBT Excl. Unusual ItemsUnusual ItemsEBT Incl. Unusual ItemsPretax IncomeIncome Tax ExpenseTax Rate, %345678910111213-86,7-312,5-477,5-540,1-543,7-572,9-601,5-631,6-663,2-696,4-731,263-902-171-24-12186-18-19-20-21-211 3781 624-3829731 180-6495985535245155067-276477-12-7,3-21–––––1 3861 348959621 172-6695985535245155061 385,531 348,3195,33961,721 172,49-669,44598,08552,65523,59514,54506,24356,3118,918,9276,6360,8179,2167,5154,7146,6144,1141,725,78,819,828,830,8-26,828,028,028,028,028,01 029,211 229,4276,44685,09811,74-848,60430,62397,91376,99370,47364,49Minority interest-116,20-88,80-2,60-34,80-75,600,32-37,64-37,64-37,64-37,64-37,64Net Income913,011 140,6273,84650,29736,14-848,28392,98360,27339,34332,82326,85–––––––––––Diluted EPS2,1932,7400,1771,5621,768-2,0380,9440,8650,8150,8000,785Weighted Avg.

Diluted Shares Out.416,27416,27416,27416,27416,27416,27416,27416,27416,27416,27416,27Net Income to companyPer Share Items:.191.18 – Mechel ValuationEBITDA, mln $201320142015201620171 8201 8361 8711 9301 992PRETAX PROFIT, mln $598553524515506TAX RATE, %28,028,028,028,028,0AFTER-TAX EBT, mln $1 0321 0301 0401 0671 096621652684719755-1 043-1 064-1 085-1 107-1 129-10-9-8-7-7608631671ADD DEPR. & AMORT, mln $MINUS CAPEX, mln $MINUS NET WORKING CAPITALCHANGE, mln $FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM, mln $600:.19 – DCF MechelPresent Value of FCF, mln $2 744PV of Terminal Value 2%, mln $7 687Enterprise Value, mln $10 431Net debt, mln $-9 974Equity Value, mln $456,51Shares Outstanding, $416,30Share Price DCF, $$1,10:..20 – WACC MechelCOST OF EQUITY, %COST OF DEBT, %9,35,0WEIGHT OF EQUITY, %10,8WEIGHT OF DEBT, %89,2WACC (A*C+B*D), %5,46COST OF DEBT, %5,00DEBT WEIGHTINGMKT VALUE OF LT DEBT, mln $TOTAL FIRM VALUE, mln $9 97411 186DEBT WEIGHTING, %89,2RISK FREE RATE, %3,63EQUITY BETA1,05EQUITY MKT RISK PREM, %9,0POLITICAL RISK PREM, %0,0COST OF EQUITY, %9,3EQUITY WEIGHTINGCURRENT PRICE, $SHARES OUTSTANDING, $CURRENT MARKET CAP, mln $TOTAL FIRM VALUE, mln $EQUITY WEIGHTING, %:2,91416,31 211,411 185,710,8.715..

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