184600 (Общая теория глобализации), страница 3

The second variant – taking a pause which may be gained after dollar runoff to the destabilizing «second economics» of the world for organization of the head-on competitive collision with the eurozone, first premonition of which could be found with non-united European economy in the September, 1992, and with only starting its trip to integration economy of the South-Eastern Asia in the second half of the 1997 year.

This scheme allows the USA to take the strategic initiative and make its own choice of time, sphere and the character for this collision that taking into consideration factor of abruptness gives the USA an advantage.

At static consideration of outlook for such collision based on comparison of the already existing resources, Europe has advantageous chances. But as compared on the point of view of dynamics taking into consideration level of expenses, increasing role of newest technologies and actually «natural» (after disintegration of the USSR) monopoly of the USA on holding its holding and development performed with taking into consideration cardinal differences of the American and European bureaucracy (the first one – creates, the second – exists) makes us to make our choice in favor of the USA if we have a long-term outlook for future.

Influence of «dynamic» factors of the technological quality and bureaucracy on the modern competition may be indirectly seen comparison of losses borne by European and American capitals in Russia and South-Eastern Asia: in both cases losses of Europeans were greater than that of the Americans from all points of view. Besides, if in the USA losses were borne only by structures, which do not make the main part of the national economy, with high risk possibility, but in Europe – losses were borne by the banks making the basic part of its banking system.

There is no reason to consider that in the nearest years proportion of effectiveness of two financial and governmental systems will change greatly.

Besides, the USA will always be able to carry out discrimination in this or that form of at least a cash part of dollars which are outside the USA. It may be performed for example under the slogan of struggle with international crime: first of all, this thesis is a standard method using by the USA in its international competitiveness, and then – it is true: turnover of the major part of the US dollars outside the territory of the USA in this or that form is connected with law violation, and, thus, the USA progress is based to a certain extent on lurking stimulation of the criminal activity outside the USA.

Of cause, such discrimination will abruptly limit the most important financial part of the economic power of the USA – usage of their national currency as an international reserve currency and that is why it may be used only as «the last means».

But in any case not depending on the result of the global financial confrontation between the USA and European Currency Union it will lead to the unfavorable event for the humanity: cardinal slowdown of the China economic development which may be followed by its destabilization, regress and even disintegration.

China mainly develops as an export oriented country integrated into the markets of Europe and the USA. Collision will reduce purchasing capacity of the outgoing party and correspondingly will reduce its import including from China. And this collision won’t depend on the result of collision between Europe and the USA.

China will hardly bear such an abrupt reduction in its export, which will be the catalyst of all its internal problems, which are now in an inchoative stage. Destabilization of China will be such an event that will be able up to 2015 year set the whole world economy in chaos (except the winner: the USA or the eurozone).

Truly speaking, victory of the latter will be a Pyrrhic victory: leaving behind the competitors and together with them the whole world for a generation (of people and main technologies), it will loose the main sale markets for its products that will slowdown its own development.

In that case we will have a losing or at least conservation of the most advanced technologies: in the event of eurozone victory – because it does not know how to create them, and in the event of the USA victory – because of abrupt reduction of the sale markets and realization of these technologies, that will weaken in cardinal way stimulus for their development an will reduce resources engaged for such purposes.

Thus, transformation of disagreement between the eurozone and the USA connected with integration of euro and release of the extra dollars to the level of negative competition will be followed by the possibility of slowdown of the development of the whole mankind.

III. Global regulation for global competition

3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»?

Possibility of slowdown of the development of general human technical progress as it was shown in the previous paragraph is a minor point of the general rule: development may have only total character. Any attempt to force back the competitors disrupt the development making it narrower and poor and increasing the level of monopolization through reduction of sale markets to the products of the winner, and leads, thus, to the total slowdown of the development and stagnation.

It is quite evident: for the mankind itself problems of its own development has already become very difficult according to our traditional understanding. National states come across with such thing that their «habitat» is spontaneously formed by overnational structures (including overnational structures holding meta-technologies), which, thus, predetermine their actions and lead the mankind to serious cataclysms and abrupt slowdown of the development due to their egoistic motives.

If we do not want to allow the described consequences it is necessary to establish that very international economic regulation which was mentioned in practical terms after Lenin for the first time by G. Soros: «economic UNO», which differs from the already existing political economy with qualitatively smaller level of bureaucratization as financial processes have qualitative difference as they are more quick and correspondingly demand for their regulation quicker actions and effectiveness in general than that of the political processes.

Existing intellectual and consulting «stages» of global financial groups notwithstanding to the dominating influence on them of the USA, may become an embryo of such organization. The main trace of character for such organization providing as in the case with UNO principal capability shall become the general understanding of reality of mutual destruction enforcing the strongest partners to search for the compromise with more weak partners and even vesting them with right of veto in respect of strategic and more complicated matters.

3.2. New generation of TNC «the wind of Gods»

The main task of the organization aimed at performance of international economic regulation is the regulation of the transnational monopoly activity. Besides it is very important to understand that the old TNC are not the owner of the world any longer. The global financial groups, development of common and meta-technologies replace them. These groups are very often non-formalized (that makes their regulation more complicated), but their effectiveness, mobility and many-sidedness exceed analogue qualities of the traditional TNC.

For better understanding of the actual problem it will be enough to note that coincided with increase of activity transformation in 1993 of researchers performed by transnational corporations from the special body of the UNO (UNCTC) which in general was able to meet the task, to the lower level – the department of the UNCTC, which considers development of the TNC mainly from the departmental positions of this organization (in respect of trade and development) and due to institutional reasons in general cannot cope with complex observance and analysis of their activity.

This is the first sign of finding by this or that group of the crucial influence: termination of unpleasant for this group (as a minimum independent, and in case of absence in demand in advertising – any external) researches of this group.

As we can see it in the first chapter, the technological leader of the mankind – Mr. Gates – is only going to provide information transparency of other countries – but overnational monopolies influencing the world greatly leave him behind for several years preventively liquidating globally even a possibility of primitive statistical research of the development.

3.3. Value of global regulation

Increase of influence of the overnational monopolies may reproduce the situation of the end of twenties and thirties of this century. At that time domination of private monopolies in the economies of the most developed countries (including to certain extent the USSR) had lead to their stagnation and to the Great Depression. There were formed on the national levels mechanisms of state control over monopolies in the course of the struggle with the Great Depression, but it was defeated only in the course of preparation for World War II.

Taking into consideration these events but from the point of view of power, we should pay our attention to very significant drawbacks of the purely economic approach. Thus, we got used to consider the immediate cause of the Great Depression the mistake made by the American government: in that very moment when from the economic point of view it was necessary to alleviate financial policy it was otherwise cardinal toughen that was followed by crash on the stock exchange and economic catastrophe.

But the fact which from the economic point of view was inexcusable mistake, from the political point of view it was the only way out. As in those days America had to solve the main and the only question of power. Question of the economic welfare was of a minor importance for any practical politician.

When there is a threat to economic conjuncture there was a question: who should govern the country – state under conditions of democracy oriented in general to the interests of the society, or several private monopolies («oligarchies») oriented to their own interests which are in contradiction to the social interests.

And for the purpose of restoration of its dominating position partially lost after creation and heyday of private monopolies in the twenties, the American government without any doubt and at once with determination which is very typical for Mr. Chubais (Russian reformer known for his extreme and drastic measures aimed at improvement of economic situation in Russia – annotation of the translator) plunged the country into unknown in the history of mankind catastrophes which destroyed almost the half of national economy and left a scar in the soul of every American survived in these catastrophes.

I would like also to underline two 60 years old events important for better understanding of the current situation.

First of all, this dreadful resolution was right from the historical point of view, as private monopolies due to objective reasons were unable to perform necessary functions of the state, and their domination could be followed by greater catastrophe for the society, though it could happen later (that is quite evidently shown on the example with Russia of 1995 – 1998 years).

Secondly, it was a spontaneous resolution adopted on the level of collective conscious (or even «collective unconscious») of the state and the society. There are not proves for the fact that the political aspect of resolution was established by several even holding posts of a very high rank participants of the event. Though it is evident that they fully sensed the political aspect of the events described would never want to disclose it.

It is possible that in the nearest future the mankind will have to go through spontaneous and non-understanding by several contemporaries resolution of such a question referring to power (taking into consideration accelerating course of progress) on the level of world economy and world policy. It is possible that it will be as difficult for developed economics as it was difficult for industrial and financial centers of the USA in the end of twenties (that is indirectly proved by our forecast on slowdown of technical progress of the mankind), and it will be also destructive for less developed countries as it was destructive for the American agricultural godforsaken regions of that period of time.

It is also possible that «economic UNO» which was spoken above will be created as a mechanism to control over overnational corporations and mainly to control over global financial groups. And as the result it may become the power of the world.

As for the external event referring to our economic system (i.e. referring to the whole mankind) which will find out the way from depression resulting after crisis, this event will also leave no time for delay and compromise and it will mobilize the mankind as World War II did it. And it is impossible to foresee such event even with the lowest positive degree of accuracy.

We cannot but hope the leaders of the mankind (to which we cannot refer our country) like 60 years ago will be the first to see it and notify the other with word of mouth of their strategist and city mad people.