184600 (Общая теория глобализации), страница 2

Traditions are the psychological protection from something new: it is the attempt to live as if nothing has happened. In the conditions of reconstruction of mass conscious of actual and probable competitors of the tradition starts to act not like an ostrich, but it goes through minimization of negative consequences in changes having «squatter» order: attempt to cancel by ignoring of these charges or cancellation of their major part. I.e. it is a spontaneous reflection of the information attack by the information method.

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The above said means that creation and distribution of meta- technologies reduces significance of financial resources from the point of view of competitiveness of the societies and corporations: if they have been the main source of power earlier, now they become only its consequence. Intellect has become the main source of the market power. Intellect is embodied in organizational structures of the research and market corporations creating meta-technologies and holding control over such technologies.

Rephrasing Mr. M. Fridman we can say that money recedes into the background after creation of the information society. The reason lies in the following: that property right for the meta-technologies makes an organically inalienable part of the holder and his intellect, with the help of which these technologies have been created and are supported, according to technological reasons.

Meta-technologies in a greater degree will transform in a «second nature» making the borders and creating conditions for development of the personality and the humanity in general. As such these technologies will gradually exchange market relationship and property rights performing these functions since the moment of money appearance.

1.2. New resources for new technologies

Disintegration of the USSR has given to the developed countries such a financial and intellectual possibility that they were able to speed up their development on the «lagan» of the disintegrated USSR (differences in orientations and correspondingly outlook for Europe and the USA shows that the first one has got finances and the latter – intellect). Thus, having won in the cold war developed countries not only destroyed their global antagonist as we have got used to consider but they managed to do more: they have captured and used its resources which were truly speaking dreadfully used (the socialism differed from the capitalism also in the fact that on preparing the best in the world people resources it united them into organizations in the worst way).

It has a principal importance that in the new information postindustrial world the most important resources are first of all finances and intellect, which may travel very easily from one territory to another, but not the territory with fixed production and people.

That is why the appeal to the people from developed countries, who are capable to organize system of government, had no sense in the nineties: new major resources for development are not attached to a certain territory! Nowadays the effective frontier consists not only in recovery of the society within such a territory but otherwise in isolation within the society with further exemption from its main part of healthy and progressive elements, i.e. people – carriers of finances and intellect.

In such method of frontier the progress of the more developed «frontiering» society goes at expense of degradation of the society on frontier, and the scales of degradation of the society on destruction outgo victory in culture and in progress of the more developed society. As compared with traditional harmonic processes of development, development at expense of a alien degradation has always the character of a «play with negative sum».

Thus, distribution of information technologies has changed on a qualitative level value of resources placing on the top position intellect and finances, which are more mobile nowadays. It has changed the process of cooperation between developed and developing countries: constructive frontier of the last by the latter with the help of direct investments into the real sector has started to climb down to the destructive frontier with the help of exemption of financial and intellectual resources.

Understanding of realias and consequences of such transformation has given birth to the theory of «dead countries»: under influence of the new information imperialism, the developing countries become actually «dead», as they irretrievably loose not only the most important intellectual resources for development but also the possibility to produce them. This leaves nothing in store for them.

1.3. Old technologies «depreciation»

Irreversible lag of the developing countries is creating not only by the reason of «wash» from them of the most valuable under the new conditions resources, and also due to collapse of the usefulness of traditional resources and technologies which these societies dispose. As the most important result of each new level of development of the humanity from the point of view of the practical politics is comparative depreciation of all «old» technologies and products or their appliance as they are distributed.

Depth of such depreciation will be in proportion to the primitiveness of the «old» technologies and to the level of monopolization and competitiveness of the market of such technology products. In accordance with this rule we have a depreciation first of all technologies of the mineral industry because of distribution of the information technologies. First of all this process influences oil, world market of which is liberalized in the most extent.

And as the result of it we have a regular reduction of its price in the world market (in 1999 according to estimations to the level of no more than 8 dollar per barrel) that is followed not so much by the agreement between the USA corporation and the Saudi Arabia but more deeper factor: creation of new information technological lifestyle which has new qualitative level. Such lifestyle has started depreciation of the previous lifestyles by the fact of its appearance.

That is why reduction of prices all over the world for the raw materials and in a broader sense for the products engaging little intellectual work will become a tendency deviation from which will be non- significant fluctuations. In this sense the USA actively placing its not so much ecologically but intellectually «impure», i.e. too simple productions has got a maximal guard from negative consequences of their own technical breakthrough.

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Summing up the above said we may make a list of consequences for new technologies development:

. Exacerbation and acquisition of final – at the same time keeping the existing tendencies – compelling character between:

v developed and the rest countries;

v creating new technological principles by the developed countries

(it is possible that we should use the term «the most developed / advanced countries») and the rest developed countries;

. Insulation, which take place in all countries, of people engaged in information technologies into internal «information community», its concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow concentration of the «information community» of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress in the «most developed» countries;

. progress termination or its abrupt slowdown (at least technical) beyond the developed countries; social and financial degradation of the developing countries;

. reduction of the number of developed and the most developed countries because of hard competition.

XXVI. Several consequences of markets globalization

2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization

The process of distribution of information technologies is influenced by the process of globalization which is created by the process of distribution of information technologies but which has the same level of importance. Formation of the united world markets at least in the financial sphere and gradual integration of the global markets of different financial instruments into united world market includes into the agenda the question referring to creation of the global monopolies.

The reason of it is very simple: it is impossible to divide a single market.

Well-known examples of market division had either quite a short period of existence, as compared with the term of existence of the domination product, or were based on objective backsets. That made access to a part of competitors to any principally significant element of the market more complicated.

Information technologies reducing transaction expenses to minimum and also an «entrance fee» to the global financial markets destroy these backsets, eliminating any possibilities for any stable part of these markets. Term of existence of the dominating product – information – is going down to zero that makes practically impossible even temporal division of these markets.

In the result of it creation of global monopolies has got two simultaneous directions:

Formation of global monopolies in the global markets of separate financial instruments;

Formation of the united global monopoly in the result of integration of the said markets (reduction of «price for transformation» from one market to another down to a very small level).

The American government plays the role of the latter monopoly as it has very close contacts with the based in the territory of the USA transnational corporations including financial most of which due to the specifics of their activity do not need any organizational formation.

The matter may have the following form: the world policy will recently terminates its existence on the state level, transforming, on one part, to the national level of global groups of capitals and technologies and on the other part – to the internal level of political life of the country controlling over the major part of these capitals and technologies.

(In 1997 during the progress of the proamerican «team of young reformers», the Russian lobbyists were greatly amazed at finding out that the sphere of the most effective lobbying of several matters in the internal Russian politics had transformed from the Governmental level and the level of the President's Administration to the level of the Congress and the USA administration. In the USSR all matters having principal importance referring to development of the republics or regions should be solved not by their own authorities but by the curators of the corresponding directions in Moscow – in the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and in the Council of Ministers.)

2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism

In 1999 the rest tow parts of the process of monopoly globalization will elapse against the most important event of the century – commencement of the process for euro integration. Commencement of European currency integration will be the first real after establishment in the beginning nineties of the total world financial crisis attempt which has chances to become a success to depth regional integration up to the level which will dominate over global integration.

Integration of «euro» will reduce foreign currency reserves of banking systems of the world (firstly of Europe) and will release from them a great amount of dollars (only in China about tens milliards).

Besides, settlements at European market of energy carriers are made in dollars. Transformation of these settlements into euro will be after integration of the latter simply a matter of time, let it even be long, but it will release several tens of milliard dollars.

At last purchasing capacity of the maximum European banknote in 500 euros will be higher of the purchasing capacity of the maximum banknote of the USA denominated in 100 dollars. It will transfer into euro the major part of the large sums in cash in Europe, and not only in the countries of the currency union but also in the neighboring countries, - also tens of milliard dollars.

Apparent non-solicitude of the «Eurozone» leaders of the future of such dollars carries an extremely destructive character of inactivity not only for the USA but also for the rest of the world. Actually this inactivity provokes the USA to strengthen the process of further destabilization of the financial system of the world.

European dollars and China dollars should be absorbed by other countries not to destabilize the USA on their coming back to the country. Such absorbation of the world reserve currency to a great extent happens only under the conditions of a very deep economic destabilization. Such extent may be only compared with its release under the process of euro integration.

Thus, egoistic indifference of Europeans to welfare of the main global competitor – the USA – in a strategic plan provokes the latter to make destructive steps in respect of not only the eurozone economic power of which is protected from a short-term influence but in respect of the third parties, i.e. countries which are less stable and due to this reason these countries are a favorable potential recipient of the releasing dollars.

The most threatened regions are the Latin America (first of all it is Brazil) and several countries of the South-Eastern Asia and may be China.

2.3. Global financial competition outlook: technical progress slowdown

Attempt to carry out sterilization of dollars through disorganization of national economic system can not be the decision for a problem even if such method allows to postpone the decision of the problem despite of its being very expensive.

There are two final and real variants to solve the problem:

First – carrying out of long-term investments of the releasing dollars into large projects in the zones of mutual influence of the USA and Europe (for example: reconstruction of the Transsib aimed at establishment of the united transport European-Asian line «London-Tokio»). As Russia still remains under political influence of the USA and under economic influence of Europe, sterilization of the extra dollars of the world in the territory of Russia will be for the USA an exchange of a part of its geopolitical influence to the short-term and medium-term economic safety.

This variant demands for not only constructive approach to the problem (for example: it corresponds to the demands of the overheating economy of Japan) but also consent of the Russian society for its deep healthening or at least readiness for it.