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В результате проведенного исследования конъюнктуры украинского аграрного рынка, согласно предложенным основным направлениям анализа, разработанной методологии моделирования и прогнозирования, обоснованы ключевые направления формирования целостной системы прогнозных оценок и программных документов развития аграрного рынка, государственных программ развития АПК.
Ключевые слова: конъюнктура, аграрный рынок, конъюнктурообразующие факторы, прогнозирование, анализ сингулярного спектра, временные ряды, моделирование.
Summary
Oleksiy S. Korepanov. Statistical prediction of conjuncture of the agrarian market in Ukraine. – Manuscript.
Thesis for Candidate Degree in Economic Science, Specialty 08.00.10 – Statistics. – State Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Auditing of the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, Kyiv, 2008.
The thesis offers methodological and practical approaches to statistical research and forecasting of conjuncture of the agrarian market in Ukraine.
The essence of conjuncture research of the agrarian market in Ukraine has been described. The peculiarities of functioning of the agrarian market have been determined; the main directions of its statistical study have been singled out. The system of statistical indices for research of the agrarian market has been examined. The methods and ways of forecasting of the market conjuncture have been analyzed.
The method of regional grouping in Ukraine has been proposed, depending on the size of integral evaluation and the reliability of the results of complex use of cluster analysis and the ranking of regions of Ukraine according to the level of integral production potential of the agrarian market, based on the multivariable mean value, has been proved. The conceptual model of reproduction of livestock products in the market has been built.
The effectiveness of the use of the method of canonical correlations while modeling and forecasting of conjuncture of the agrarian market has been grounded. The model of interaction of conjuncture forming factors of the agrarian market in Ukraine with the use of component analysis has been developed. The methodology of forecasting of tendencies of the development of agrarian branch by evaluation of separate integral parts of the time series, based on the singular spectrum analysis, has been worked out.
The key words: conjuncture, agrarian market, conjuncture forming factors, forecasting, singular spectrum analysis, time series, modeling.
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