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The development of the nature and natural processes, including psychical processes in a person and social-historical ones, has a cyclic character.
Social activity is an important categorial element of the social-historical analysis (S. Rubinshtein, L. Vygotsky, O. Leont’ev, A. individual and Brushlinsky, et al.). According to the psychological structure of social activity, the hierarchy of its two main plans [objective and communicative ones (D. El’konin, D. Feldshtein, et al.)] periodically changes in the process of its development. Each of them fulfills, in turn, the functions of a purpose and a means.
Global social changes are a result of the integral interaction of the political, economic, and natural factors (P. Sorokin, A. Chizhevsky, L. Gumilev). In cyclic constructions, the synchronization of the maxima of their manifestation leads, in fact, to transformational social changes.
Society as an subject of the history and civilization passes a large vital cycle in its development. The historical genesis of a socium is, in fact, the realization of epochal cycles, and each of them is composed from two normative and two transformational periods. The first epochal period «involution» is generally characterized by reducing the social processes in space, the relative simplification of a social structure, and the leading role of traditionalism. A historical task of the «involutionary» period is the organic mastering of societal characteristics acquired by the society in the previous period of development. Such a traditional society is a society of the «closed» type. It has own social normatives and mechanisms for support of a stable condition. The degree of freedom of an individual in such a society is limited by the influence of a collective. In the social-psychological relation, the emotional-sensitive behavioral psychotype of personalities becomes defining.
The second normative period, «evolution», is characterized by development of social processes in space and the complication of a social structure. The innovative activity of citizens, which is based on a growth of freedom of individuals and the objective-cognitive component in the psychological structure of personalities, becomes the leading tendency. The principal feature is the stability of changes.
Transient periods of social development are characterized by historical phases opposite by the direction of changes: «revolution» and «co-evolution». In particular, «revolution» is a radical qualitative overturn of the whole social structure of the society. It creates the mechanism of transformational transition from one normative condition of «evolution» to other normative condition «involution». All this is simultaneously connected with a radical change of societal characteristics. «Revolution» sums up, conditionally saying, the previous historical epoch (cycle) and begins a new one. «Co-evolution» is a phase transition from the normative period of «involution» to the normative period of «evolution». This transition is realized in the frameworks of one epochal cycle. Therefore, one observes only a change of the «vector» of social development in this case.
The scheme of universal epochal cycle can be presented in the following form: «revolution» – «co-evolution» – «evolution» - «revolution». We note that, in the frameworks of certain subsequently performed epochal cycles, three groups of global contradictions forming the anthroposociogenetic contents of social development are solved. The question is the contradiction between scientific and religious consciousnesses, which plays the role of a «spring» defining the dynamism of the initial cycle of social development. Against the background of the solved contradiction, there arises a contradiction, not less powerful, between legal consciousness and moral. Just this pivotal contradiction is solved at the epoch of the industrial and post-industrial societies. The newest history, which is opened before the mankind in the nearest future, will be developed under the influence of a new global contradiction between political and ordinary consciousnesses. Prior to the derivation of a comprehensive empiric information, the construction of the presented scheme is still hypothetical basically, though the available separate empiric data make it rather promising.
SPOKE:
Afonin E. – There exist attempts to describe social changes through economic and political changes and processes. However, up to now, the transient period of social development bears threats and gives a lot of unexpected surprises to us. Up to now, there is no such tool which would allow one to attain an adequate comprehension of the essence of transient processes. The social science is unable, on the whole, to cover all the completeness of these changes. At the same time, it asserts a growth of the role of a subject in the transient period of social development. In our opinion, it would be correct to state that different transient processes are accompanied by a strengthening of the role of different subjects. In particular, the role of subjects-individuals increases during a «revolution». This can be clearly traced for the revolutions of 1905-1917, when, conditionally saying, the cohort of revolutioners available at that time exceeded the demand for them. Thus, the high «competition» generated strong personalities. A completely opposite pattern is observed during a transformation («co-evolution»). In this case, the role of the subject-socium is enhanced. Just for these reasons, the TV-programs of the Russian journalist Pozner «We», having generated a series of programs with large groups of participants as acting persons, attained the high popularity in the current period of co-evolution in Russia and Ukraine. In Ukraine, these programs are: «Taboo», «Karaoke on a square», «Morning Star», «Epicenter», etc. More often reveals the phenomenon «we» in the political life of the country (political union «We», «parliamentary majority», etc.).
To a certain extent, we can refer two types of deformations of the space-time continuum to peculiar regularities accompanying two types of transient processes. During «revolution», there occurs a deformation of these structures to the direction of the future, whereas they deform in the opposite direction, in the past, during «co-evolution». All this requires a verification with empiric material.
In our opinion, as a constructive methodological principle of the chosen approach, we would take the positions of the theory of Chizhevsky concerning the influence of the solar activity on social-historical processes. But, as emphasized, this rule is satisfied only under the presence of relevant social-political, economic, and spiritual preconditions.
Now we possess the objective data of systematic observations of the solar activity during 23 cycles, every of which covers 12 years. With the purpose to use this information in the realization of the project, we plan to attach researchers of the astronomic observatory of T. Shevchenko Kyiv University.
On the processing of empiric indices, we shall employ the comparative analysis. It brightly demonstrates the relevancy of the hypothesis on different levels of complexity of the social structures of «involutionary» and «evolutionary» societies. For example, in countries suffered from the «Great Depression», the number of social roles is about 70,000. Whereas we see only 30,000-40,000 ones in our domestic space. I suppose that the specially developed system of empiric indices allows us to verify the principal idea of cyclicity of the social development.
Salamatov V. – Really, this can be described in Durkheim’s terms. The similar studies already exist.
Afonin E. – To refine, I should like to add that this approach will be realized with utilization of specific empiric indices and their dimensionalities. Thus, it will not be limited by the social-philosophical analysis.
Andrii Yur’evych, what orienting points can be taken for a period, which would be convenient for the beginning of a study of subjects of the history ? From the moment of the creation of a state or earlier ?
Martynov A. – We must find an optimum variant. Among possible variants, we select the following: pre-state formation, a certain community, or a state. The substantial complexity is presented by the problem of determination of the age of an historical subject. I recall that there is no zero year in the era «from Christmas ». The date of Christmas was defined by Dionysus the Little in 525 AD. The third millennium will begin according to the chronological scale from January 1, 2001, but, according to the astronomical scale, it is customary to take the first year of our era as the zero one. Respectively, the third millennium will begin on January 1, 2000.
There exist the methodological problems of interrupted cycles in the development of historical subjects. For example, we mention the period from 1654 till 1991 in the native history. The analogous situation exists in countries, former colonies (Africa, South-East Asia, etc.). That is, there are many exactly historical methodological problems.
Ryabiko V. – The problem is both interesting and complicated. Thus, the very approach will be mainly formed in the course of investigation.
Kokoshyns’kyi O. – Possibly, the methodological reasons should be developed by sociologists. Already now, it is expedient to form the appropriate groups of researchers for study of each of the applied problems of this complex investigation.
Malyshko M. – By passing from the global level to a local one, I already see a certain block of legal problems in the project.
Right is a written thing, and, therefore, I am in anxiety about that we cannot understand, for example, China traditions. I also think about the problem of practical results of the project. What can they be ? At the last time, I am engaged with interpretation of Nostradamus’ predictions. One can analyze post factum, but to make prognosis is a difficult thing.
Afonin E. – In the transient condition, the society «lives through» institutional changes, social structures are washed out, social ties become weaker, and the hierarchy of factors defining the mechanisms of reproduction of social structures is broken. In addition, we observe a «washing out» of cause-effect connections, which lie in the foundation of the rational scientific method. Thus, scientific methods are not always adequate in the period of transformation. What can ensure the prognostic functions of the state administration under such conditions ? As is known, science acts in situations where just the cause-effect character of connections in the social structure is conserved.
It is obvious that a global study, similar to our one, should be constructed on the principles of synthesis of the ancient and scientific knowledge, methods, and methodologies. It is the integration of the traditional and the innovative that presents the means which is able to give adequate results under conditions of the transient period of social development.
Chechnev B. – The study can give an unexpected result. It is possible that the persons who are present here came to agreement to meet one thousand years ago. While studying large cycles, it is important to regard for esoteric knowledge. We stand in front of the period of a global discontinuity, which can be compared with the destruction of Atlantis. In the period of 1992-2012, there occurs the termination of cosmic evolutionary cycles: 26,000, 12,000, 9,000, 6,000, and 2,000 years. In this connection, it is worth to note the coincidence of calendars. For example, the Celtic and Maya calendars name the year of 2012 as that when time will terminate. After this, a new global evolutionary cycle will begin. The Bible says: there will be a new Earth and a new sky. It is necessary to define ourselves in methodological questions. That the academic rationality considers as a violation is removed by the God’s harmony. Our time can be define as a closed wheel. This is like a snake biting its tail. Buddhists, for example, find the way out of this situation in nirvana, and Christians in practice.
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