Диссертация (1137854), страница 2

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.,,(.,, Besley, Kudamatsu,,2008).:,,,(Fatás, Mihov, 2013).,,.«»,(.,, Besley, Ghatak, 2010;Acemoglu, Reed, Robinson, 2013).,,,.,,,,.,,,.(McGuire, Olson, 1996),.,36,: (1)(«(«»;»);(2). Bourguignon, Verdier, 2012).,,.(McGuire, Olson, 1996),(.,Haber, MКЮrОr, RКгШ, 2003).,,,,,.,(,,).,,,«».(. Acemoglu, 2006; Polishchuk, 2012).,,,,,.,««» (OХsШЧ, 1993),»,,,,.37,.,«»,,,.23.,: (1);(2).;,,,(.).,().–,,,(Lizzeri, Persico, 2004).,(Acemoglu, Robinson, 2005),(Besley, Persson, 2012).,,,,.38.(McGuire, Olson, 1996),,,,«»..1.3.2,,()(Wittman, 1995).– :(Besley, Persson, Sturm, 2010),–(Lizzeri, Persico, 2005).,(Ferejohn, 1986).,«(Collier, Levitsky, 1997)» («democracy with adjectives»),,.,«»,.,,,(). (Besley, Ghatak, 2010),39«»,.,.,,–(Acemoglu, Robinson, 2005).(CКЦpКЧЭО, DШ, CСШr, 2009)U-,.,,,.«»,,.,«»,,,«»,(,U,–.3).,,,,,.,,,.,.40,«».(Lizzeri, Persico, 2004),.

(Dixit, Grossman, Gul, 2000),,«». (Acemoglu et al., 2011):. (Bourguignon, Verdier, 2012)«»(fiscal,,capacity),,.,,,.(Keefer, Knack, 2000; Chong, Gradstein, 2007).,(Polishchuk, 2013; Murphy, Shleifer, Vishny, 1993),,(De Soto, 2000; Rajan, Zingales, 2003)(Polishchuk, Savvateev, 2004).,, (McGuire, Olson, 1996).,.(Polishchuk, 2013),,41,,,().,,,,(Mehlum, Moene,,Torvik, 2006).,«».,(Acemoglu, 2006),,,().,,,,.1.4,.,,«».,.,.42.,.,,,.,.,«».,.,,,.,,,,.,,–––,.43442.,.(PШХТsСМСЮФ, SвЮЧвКОЯ, 2015;,, 2014)2.1,.,.,,.,«»;,.,,,,.,,.2.2,(«»),(North, 1990);–.,, Nunn, 2008).45,.,,–..2.3,.,,,,«. .» (Acemoglu, 2003).,,(Aghion,etal.,2004),,,«», .

.,.,,«»(O'DШЧЧОХХ, SМСЦТЭЭОr, 1986),«» (North, Wallis, Weingast, 2009).,2.3,«»,.,,.,,,,.«46»,,,,.,..47. .2.1,.,(Olson, 1993; Besley,Ghatak, 2010; Acemoglu et al., 2011; Compante, Do, Chor, 2009; Besley et al., 2012;Dixit, Grossman, Gul, 2000)(Olson, McGuire, 1996, Rajan, Zingales,2004; Polishchuk, Savvateev, 2004; Acemoglu, 2006; Polishchuk, 2013).2.1.1(Olson, 1993),,,.,.,,,.,.,,.,. .,,«,,,«»,..-, «», . .48»,,,,.,, «-»,,,,.«»,,,,.,«».,,,.(Besley, Ghatak,,2010).,,,,(grim trigger strategies;–),, ,,,�� ,,,,:���.−49�̂ ∗ = max { , − } .(binding),,,.,,,( ,,),«»,.«»,«(), ,»,,,.,,.«,»,.(CКЦpКЧЭО, DШ, CСШr, 2009).,,-�, � ( �,∙ –,�,(embezzlement),, �-,�.,,�,.�� ,�� =�+ σ)= �:��,50�.�,,,,:={max [+� �≥ ;� ≥=�−−–�+],,,.,.,,, ��∗.= �� ,�.,«∗»,,.,,«»,(.

.-),.,,«»,, . .,.,,,.,,(CКЦpКЧЭО, DШ, CСШr, 2009),«»,,«», . .,.(DТбТЭ, GrШssЦКЧ, GЮХ, 2000; AМОЦШРХЮ ОЭ КХ., 2011;Besley et al., 2012),,51.(DТбТЭ, GrШssЦКЧ, GЮХ, 2000).:,,,.,,,.,.,,,,,.()-,.,( . .),-.(AМОЦШРХЮ ОЭ КХ., 2011),,(DТбТЭ, GrШssЦКЧ, GЮХ, 2000),.(power switches)..,,;.,52,.(AМОЦШРХЮ ОЭ КХ., 2011),,,,.,(OХsШЧ, 1993).,,«»,«».,.,,,(equilibrium.path),,,,.,,.(BОsХОв ОЭ КХ., 2012),,.,,.,.(AМОЦШРХЮ ОЭ КХ., 2011),,,,.(53),.,:�̂ � = {�̂ �,−−,,еслииначе,�,–,–.,.,,,.,,,:(()).:,,,.,,.2.1.2.(McGuire, Olson, 1996),,54«» (distortionary).,,,,,.,,:max{�∈[ , ];−+[<− ],,,-–,,–,,–«»–,,.,[,,= ,− ].,,«»,.:∗=−,.«,′′−−;≠ .< ,»,«»(55= ).,,,,.(McGuire, Olson, 1996),()(,,)(,)-.,SКЯЯКЭООЯ, 2004)(PШХТsСМСЮФ,,.,,.,,,.,,(TЮХХШМФ,1980),,:ℎ∈[ ,][−−ℎ +,-ℎ],–,,,,ℎ--–.,,∙ ,56..(Rajan, Zingales, 2004),,«.»(Murphy, Shleifer, Vishny,1993),.,(Polishchuk, 2013),«»,,,.(Acemoglu, 2006).,.,,: (1);; (2)(3).,.,,(,).,.

б57,,,,,–.,.,,,,,,.2.2,.: (1),;(2).,.,=4,,,−..,,,,(««»,>4.58»).,,.,;.+,.,,,≠−≡∈ [ , ]≡(,.,,).,,+,−(−−−=,,).(),,,..,.,,,,(«»).,(.,, AМОЦШРХЮ ОЭ КХ.,2001),,(North, 1990).,(),59,.,,,τ >–−�,,=−� .−� ..5(Markov perfect equilibrium),,,∗=,,≠.,.,,,,,,.,,.. .,.,,,,-,5(«)2011;> �.,=, Besley et al., 2012).�∫�−�>,�−,.60�.,» (Besley, Persson,,,.+( −∞∫�−� ),−,,−,�,∗+ �,=[ ,.,,.−�−� .,,,,,� ≡ ( −−+ �]� ≡ ( +− ��,).− ��) ,,,+ � .6,∗,−�,.1.7∗:= arg max {67,∗,−−−} ,∀ ∈ { , }(2.1),/а,− exp −,+∈[ , ].−�∗=�� ,.,,�,≈ �.+−�,/,≡∫��,≈−� , . .61�=− � �.� +−��∫ �(2.1)−�.− �,=i.∗>:̃̃∈ [ , ]∈ [ ,=+ ],=,.+;∗, ,ii..>∗,,:[= {[+∗−+−× exp −( −∫�( −�+�∗−−exp −)] −+)]}(2.2),,–,,,lim�→,.,∆∆+⁄ = ,.,exp −,,+ ,+�+�+ .,,.,(2.2)lim�→∆={[[∗++,∆−−( −( −62,∗−1.

∎−)] −)]} × exp −,∀,,,,).(∗):′∗′.∗(2.1),+∗,,=∗∈,∗−(,=−.−(2.3)2.+,∗,. .∗+ −∗(2.4)∗(2.4)= .,(2.3),,(2.3)∗,,+= .∎2,=,−,.−–.−(2.4)−,,.,.633.∗∈ [ , − ],− .,(2.3)∈ [ , ].,∗(2.3),∈ [ , − ].= .∎.(8,−∈[ , − ]).4.>:,i.,,ii.,� ′′ �≡ − �′≡−∗�� ′′ ��′ �,∈[ , − ]− .,8�,,,,.,,.–.64=(∗),,=.2,∗(,∗. .∗∗[=+=∗+ −(Т).).∗∈∗−−,,+∗∗[+ −+,, −∗−− ,>]∗(2.1)(2.3)∗−].,∗,4∗∗=<–,(ii). ∎,.(Т),:.96(ТТ).2,,,,,, .

.9,,4.65(i)∗,,.=,.,.,«=3,»,,,∗5.≡−,==.10,�� ′′ ��′ �≡ − �′�,∀,>∈ [ , ],,∗=,4,,>� ′′ �,∗:.=,= ;,=,,∀ ∈ [ , ],,∗= .∎=6.−,∈,,:,, ,10−(McGuire, Olson, 1996),,.66=≡,.,,, . .∗> .∎∗1=6.,.671.(�),(�)(�∗ )2.3 А:,,,.,,:,,«».2.3.1,,,,.,,.-,.:,,,,,.,>.∈(, ]).,,−∈[ , ]. 1111««Johnson, 2005),» («Robin Hood redistribution»),» («King John redistribution»).,,.69(Acemoglu,,∈[ , ].12.,,,,(.).,,1/(,)..13,,exp −.>,,.,,,,.,.,,.12,,(Acemoglu, Robinson, 2006).,(Besley, Ghatak, 2010),,.,13,,,(«»).«»,,.70,.,,,+,−.−,,∫∞(.,) exp −–,.′→= ∞, lim→∞′–>∙,lim,:= .,(� )�(,,�.,.� )�,-,,-,,,.�,� =∫{⟺,�{���(+� =∫� =(�+:−�−� =−exp −−)) exp −+ exp −+ exp −− exp − �exp − ��+ exp −,[�[−++ exp −[�++��] ,[�−,+�] ,�] ,(2.5)−�] ,,.71−��,(2.5),,� ,=,(+{⟺�{++= (���=∫−=∫+∞∞�exp − ��exp − �−�+−= (�++−−,)+[+�−+�=[+��=−)[ −)[−:− exp −.�] ,(2.6−)�] ,++]+]+[[ −−++].],,,,,∗,,,(2.6).,,max [ (∈[ , ]�.:++−−[−)[ −+−]].+],(subgame perfect equilibrium).72(2.7)∗(grim trigger strategy),,..

.,,:,∗;∗,∗,,,= ,,.,,,:−[ −+∗(2.7)∗+].,∗,=−[,=(2.7)]+,(2.7)..,,,�−,> ..�−�� �+��� �+�= ̃,73, ,,,.,, ̃,.,,(.,, PОrssШЧ, TКЛОХХТЧТ, 2001),,,.,,,.,∗<′0∗′< ,+ −∗∗̃=.−̃ −1,(2.8)(2.8).∙ .,̃+,< ,(2.7),∗( ̃,),̃.,̃+,(2.9).,,,.747.∗̃>−̃∈[ , −.].,,(2.8)̃∈[ , −.∈[ , ],(2.8)∗].̃=−.∎1,.,,.,,.,,.,(),,. 14(,,),(,).,,14>,(2.8),. .,,,�75.− ̃,(2.10).(MМGЮТrО, OХsШЧ, 1996),,,.:.(̃ = ),,( ,,(2.7)).<−̃,,.,,,,.2.8.∗>∗,> ,�� ′′ ��′ �∈ [ , − ̃] .− ̃..≡−= ,∗,= ,,,.>−̃ ,, .

.,∗76= .( , − ̃)=.(2.7),(2.8)[=� ′′ �≡ − �′+−[+−+ −+−](2.11).-�],−,,=.∎,––,.,,,«»(Olson,1993),,,.,«»–.(MМGЮТrО, OХsШЧ, 1996),«»(),–,.«»,(,),,,–(AМОЦШРХЮ, 2006).77.7, ̃= ,,, ∀∗,,∗,,=,=, ∀ ̃ ∈ [ , ],= ,,−∈,̃+<8∈ [ , ],,= ,,,.,,,:, ̃,( ̃, )< ,∗( ̃,)−∗,,,.,.2.3.2«»,.«»,(RКаХs, 1999),(.,, AРСТШЧ ОЭ КХ., 2004).(Besley, Persson,2011)(Besley, Persson, Reynal-Querol, 2012).78,>= , , ….,−,,.,+ .,,,,−+,.1/ ,≡−/,2.3.1.∑�=.-.,–,,,.=,.,»∈ [ , ],,,«�.≠ ,,,,..,,,(CШКsО, 1960)= , , …79,«», . .,,.= ,,,.:,, = ,…, ,�>|� = ,,,|� ,.|� =,.

.|�|� = , ∀> ,��|�<,� > � > ,lim�→+,|� < , ∀,, ∀∈∈,, ,�.∙ |��> ,,=,�,–=.�:= ( +��−=,+,�+−=�−[−[−( +)+ [−+�−80�−−+�−)+−�],],(2.12)].(2.12),«∫−[( +−−»−)+]|� ,«»():max ∫ [∈[ , ]−�.≡−+−,−|� ,(2.13),≡,]+,.,,.,−�� ′′ ��′ �,,,,lim�→+,.(2.13)Ψ(∗∗|,,� = ,= ):9.81′= ,(2.13)Ψ∗=≡| ,�,∗,� ,(2.14)∗,�| ,� > ,+∫∫′′|�|�,=> .(2.15)∎(2.13)∫′∫′|�|�=∫ [′∫′′+′′|�]|�′′−−′′< ,′,+(2.16)′′,,�.(2.16)(2.4)(2.9),,(2.15),,,.,.10,(2.13),, .ΨΨ�= ∫[−′( +−∗,� ,| ,�,−)+82Ψ′],|� > ,,∗�Ψ+Ψ∗�= ,�> ,∎11.∗(2.13),,�.ΨΨ =∫ [−−−=∫ [×′−′|�−+,′′′−| ,�( +′′.,� ,−−−−′′)+′−( +( +−,′−−]),)+−,,−|�(2.17)]′−,(2.17),,|� < ,�Ψ,∗lim Ψ�→+> ,∎,, �,.= ,�,, .

.,= ,| ,� = −, ,,−′−83< ,∀ > ,и∈[ , .,lim�→+,,∗,� =, ∀ ∈[ ,..,,..2.4,2:,,,,..,,.,,,,.,.,84..,.,..,«».(«»).,..85,3. Э..,,,,.,«»,(.,,Tabellini, 2008).,,:,.–,,«»,-.,,.(«,,,,,.,.,,86»),.,.3.1.,,.,,.3.212,.,(Snyder, 2001),,.,,–.,.,,.3.3,2000.1112009-.,87-,,,.,,,..().88,3.1,,,.,(., 2015),1,,,.,.3.1.1,,.(SЧвНОr, 2001).,(),.3.3,,.-,,,,(AМОЦШРХЮ ОЭ КХ., 2009).,,,,.3.2,,,89.,(,,,.).,,.,(SЧвНОr, 2001),,«»,.,––.,,(FТsСОr, 1925),.,,,,,,,.,,,,.,,,,,(outcomes; Glaeser et.al., 2004),(,,Doing Business, 2013).,,,,,90.;.,,.,,(Weingast, 1997).15,,,,,,../«»,,«»,«2002). «» (Bardhan,»,.,,,,,,,.,«»:(,,;Doing Business, 2013),(Doing Business, 2013),(,-).,-,,,.,,15,(Acemoglu et al., 2008).91,.,,,,,.-,,Governance Matters (Kaufman et al., 2011),,.,,(voice and(rule of law),accountability),(corruption)(risk of expropriation/propertyrights protection)..,.Governance Matters, International Country RiskGuide (ICRG, 2009), Freedom in the World (Freedom in the World, 2013),,(Thomas, 2010).,(),(Aoki, 2007).(,.),«Dower et al., 2014).»(,92.,, PШХТsСМСЮФ, 2013;.,.,,,.,(.,, Knack, 2002; Hall,Sobell, 2008; Tabellini, 2008; Calì et al., 2011; Giordano, Tommasino, 2011; Xu, 2011;,, 2013;, 2008).,(Karabegovic, McMahon, 2008)..,.,,-,.,, «».,(,,,),,«».3.2,,,3.3.,.,1,,(Ogilvie, Carus, 2014; Acemoglu, Johnson, 2005).3.1.3,,93,.,,,,,(Qian, 2003; Glaeser et al., 2004)..,(Acemoglu, Johnson, 2005).(Tsebelis, 2002),,.3.1.2 И: Governance Matters,International Country Risk Guide (ICRG, 2009), Freedom in the World (Freedom in the.World, 2013).Governance Matters (Kaufman et al., 2011).,,(.):(voice and accountability),,,,.,(perception-based).,,94,.Governance Matters,,..,«»,,,.,,(TrОТsЦКЧ, 2007).Governance Matters–,–,,,,(LКЧРЛОТЧ, Knack, 2010)..(TКЛОХlini, 2008),,.ICRG (ICRG, 2009):Governance Matters,.,.,Governance Matters:,,,,,,,.95,,.,(.,, Glaeser et al., 2004),(MКЮrШ, 1995; KЧКМФ, KООПОr, 1995; HКХХ,JШЧОs, 1999).,.,-,,,,«,,,(»..,,,-,,)..-,-(Tsebelis, 2002).,-.,,,,,Property rights,Economic Freedom of the World(GаКrЭЧОв et al., 2012).:(Judicial(Property RightsIndependence)Protection) –,.,(Global Competitiveness Report)96World Economic Forum (Schwab,Sala-i-Martin, 2011).(Schwab, Sala-i-Martin,152011, pp.

75-83),,100,World Economic Forum,:«,,,.,-:,(,,):,(),,,»,Global Competitiveness Report,,,.,,.,,,,,.«»,97,,.(Acemoglu, Johnson, 2005),Global Competitiveness(Judicial Independence)Report:(Property Rights Protection).: «,?(=1)-(=7)».-: «,,(=1),(=7)».,,,..Property RightsFreedom in the WorldHeritage Foundation (Miller et al., 2012)Rule of Law,Control of CorruptionIndicators (Kaufmann et al., 2011) –,World Governance.,,,,–,,,Economic Freedom of theWorldWorld Governance,Indicators (WGI).WGI,(.,,Thomas,2010Knack,2002),,-.983.1.3,(., 2015).?..(1., 2015;.,2).,2/3.,,,–,.,.,«»,.(Belokurova,2012).,;.,,99;,,(.,,),().,.,,(Acemoglu et al., 2001; Chang, Golden, 2010)..,,.,–.,..,BEEPS (BEEPS, 2012)(,).(«»),100.BEEPS,,37,,.BEEPS,,,«»-«»..,-;(),.(BEEPS,),(.1).,:-,,.-,.,,,.«» (1)BEEPS,,(1.1011).2И1И0,7760,810,8180,8110,4040,251,,,0,5360,5360,6730,697И0,6330,6640,664,0,4320,540,542,«»(»«2),.,«».2«.»,,.,«»,.«»,«102».,21,«,».-2,,.2-,1–.,,,,.,(),,-.И22ИИ12.+***+***+***+***+***+***; ( −) –: (+) –; (***) –90%; (*) –+***+***95%; (**) –80%,,.(103, 2009).,16:.,,,,,.,,,,,,.,.,,.,,,.,,,,;,.,«»,3.2,,,,,,(–.,, GehХЛКМС, SШЧТЧ, ГСЮrКЯsФКвК, 2010).,16,.

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