Диссертация (1137741), страница 5
Текст из файла (страница 5)
According to OECD research, Canada,the Czech Republic, Finland and Poland took measures with a potentially large impact, whilein several countries a reversal of previous reforms took place. 13The cases of increases of the retirement age are widespread and of a particular interestin the analysis of Russian pension reforms. Over the last two years three countries havedecided to increase the retirement age. Denmark will gradually increase it to 68 by 2030 andFinland from 63 to 65 by three months per year.
In the Netherlands, the retirement age for abasic pension will increase to 67 and three months in 2022. At the same time, three countriesdecided to abandon previously adopted measures (Canada, the Czech Republic and Poland).Canada decided to reverse the planned increase to 67 for the basic and means-tested pensions,the Czech Republic will no longer increase the retirement age above 65 and Poland reversedthe planned increase to 67, with retirement ages dropping back to 65 for men and 60 forwomen.The future normal retirement age varies significantly among OECD countries: from 60in Turkey, Luxembourg and Slovenia to 74 in Denmark.
14 According to OECD estimates, 17countries will preserve their current level of normal retirement age when all past legislationmeasures are taken into account (Figure 1.2). In 11 of these countries the retirement age formen is already at 65 years and three of them, namely Iceland, Israel and Norway, have aretirement age of 67. In Denmark, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and the SlovakRepublic retirement age is linked to life expectancy.
Moreover, Denmark, Italy and theNetherlands will have a normal retirement age higher than 68 years (71, 74 and 71.2,respectively). On average for OECD countries, the normal retirement age in 2016 was 64.313A detailed overview of pension reforms undertaken for the last two years is presented in ANNEX 1.A1“Pension reform overview decided between September 2015 and September 2017”, OECD (2017), “Pensions ata Glance 2017”.14The normal retirement age is the age at which an individual is eligible for full retirement benefits from allmandatory components, without reduction, assuming full career and labor market entry at age 20 (OECD,Pensions at a Glance, 2017, p.30).19years for men and 63.4 for women. By 2060 it will increase from to 65.8 years for men and to65.5 years (OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2017). The retirement age in Russia is significantlylower than in OECD countries. This gap may decrease in the future if the pension reformsunder discussion in Russia are implemented.75732016future7169676563615957Figure 1.2.
Actual and expected retirement age for men, who started workingat 20 years oldNote: Future refers to the year in which someone is eligible for full retirement benefits from allmandatory components, assuming labor market entry at age 20, this year differs by country.Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance 2017, Rosstat*For Russia an official retirement age and new retirement age according to the reform is provided.Along with pension reforms the gap between the retirement age for men and women hasdecreased substantially.
In 2016 gender gaps existed in only 9 out of the 35 OECD countriesand by 2060 only three OECD countries, namely Israel, Poland and Switzerland, are planningto keep the retirement age for women lower than the one for men (Figure 1.3).
This gap inRussia is currently equal to 5 years, the same as in Poland. This gap is worsened by higher lifeexpectancy for women in Russia, leaving room for an increase in the retirement age. If theretirement age were to increase, as is currently planned by the government (to 65 years formen and 63 years for women, see Subsection 3.2) the gap would be two years, approachingthe current gap in European countries.2065current gapfuture gap43210Figure 1.3.
Current and future gap between the retirement age for womenand men, yearsNote: For Russia a future gap if a pension reform with increase in the retirement is put in place.Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance 2017, Rosstat.An improvement in the life expectancy for men at the age of 60 in Russia from 12.77to 16.1 from 2002 to 2016 (from 18.48 to 21.7 for women) and further improvement in lifeexpectancy would allow not to lower it when the retirement age would reach its new level.Comparing to the European Union (EU) life expectancy is lower (it has increased from 19.5to 21.9 for men from 2002 to 2016), yet the fact that current retirement age in Russia issignificantly lower than the one in the EU leaves room for an increase in the retirement age. 15Although increases in retirement age have led to the improvement in employmentrates of the elderly, the rates still decline significantly after age 50.
However, in OECDcountries for the age group of 55-64 years employment rates rose from 44% in 2000 to 58%in 2016. The increase was greater than 20 percentage points in Austria, the Czech Republic,Estonia, Israel and Italy and larger than 25 p.p. in Germany, Hungary, Latvia, the Netherlandsand the Slovak Republic (OECD, Pensions at a Glance 2017).The same tendency is observed in Russia.
Year after year the level of economicactivity in age groups is increasing for older generations. In the 55-59 age group this level hasincreased from 58.9% in 2005 to 62.7% in 2016, while in younger age groups a reverse15For more details see Denisenko et al.
(2018).21tendency can be seen (Figure 1.4).16 In the 65-72 age group it remained rather stable,declining from 11.7% to 11.5% from 2005 to 2016.902005802010702016605040302010015-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-72Figure 1.4. Economic activity of the population by age groups, % of thesize of corresponding age groupSource: Rosstat, authors’ calculations.In Russia a lot of retirees continue to work after retirement, which is partly explainedby the relatively low retirement age. The share of working retirees in the total number ofretirees has substantially increased from 2000 and remains at a high level, reaching 35.7% in2015 (Figure 1.5).
From 2007 to 2015 alone, the share of working retirees has increased by35%.Although the comparison with other countries is not entirely correct due to thedifference in life expectancy and retirement age, one may note that the level seen in Russia in2011 (32.4%) is much higher than in 16 European countries, considered in Dingemans et al.(2017). An average level of employment in the 60-75 age group for these countries is equal to11%, with a range from 3% for Spain to 21% for Sweden.The high level of employment of the elderly in Russia may be explained, first, by therelatively low retirement age, even taking into account the differences in life expectancy withOECD countries, and second, by the relatively low level of pensions.16For more details see, for example, Gimpelson et al. (2017).2218 00016 000Number of pensionersThe share of working pensioners, (right-hand scale)14 00040%35%30%12 00025%10 00020%8 00015%6 0004 00010%2 0005%00%1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Figure 1.5.
The number of working retirees, ths. pers.Source: Rosstat, author calculations.An increase in the number of retirees was accompanied by a decrease in the workingage population. The share of the working age population in Russia fell from a peak of 63.0%in 2006 to 56.7% in 2016, while the share of the population who are of retirement ageincreased to 25% in 2016. The retirement-age population is increasing faster than the rate ofthe decrease of the working-age population.
This leads to an increase in the ratio of thedependent population to the working age population. This tendency is preserved in the medianforecast of the Rosstat: the coefficient of demographic burden for the population above theworking age is forecasted to increase through 2035. This is coupled with the stabilization ofthe total coefficient of demographic burden from 2026 due to the decrease in population lowerthan working age (Figure 1.6).23900800total coefficient of demographic burdenyounger than working ageretirees7006005004003002001990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035Figure 1.6. Total coefficient of demographic burden, for people with agelower and higher than working age, number of disabled per 1000 of workingage population in median forecast of RosstatSource: Rosstat, author calculations.1.2.3.
![](https://s.studizba.com/z.php?f=/templates/si/i/noavatar.png&w=100&h=100&t=1"){kind=avatar}
