Диссертация (1137741), страница 3
Текст из файла (страница 3)
The estimations are based onthree official demographic forecasts of Rosstat. 7 The considered pension reforms and rates ofeconomic growth conform to those assumed in the forecasts of the Ministry of EconomicDevelopment.Chapter 2 focuses on the theoretical definition of the fiscal multiplier and the economicconditions under which fiscal policy is more effective in increasing output. The frameworkdeveloped in Chapter 2 combines the introduction of non-Ricardian agents, which is known toincrease the fiscal multiplier (Galí et al., 2007; Eggertsson and Krugman, 2012), with anassumption about productive government expenditure, that lowers the multiplier under theZLB (Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2013).
Two interest rate regimes are considered: positive interestrate and the existence of ZLB constraint on nominal interest rate.The methodology of research in Chapter 3 is based on the overlapping generationsmodel (OLG) in continuous time with an infinite horizon and uncertainty about the time ofdeath, developed by Heijdra and Bettendorf (2006). 8 Their model is based on the frameworkoriginally developed in Yaari (1965) and Blanchard (1985) and extended further by Buiter(1988), Weil (1989) and Bovenberg (1993). In order to investigate the optimal fiscal policymix, the model of Heijdra and Bettendorf (2006) was extended to incorporate the unbalancedpay-as-you-go pension system in a closed economy with an endogenous interest rate.
Thisallows accounting for an impact of fiscal instruments on the dynamics of capital accumulationand the level of effective capital in the equilibrium. The model incorporates two types ofagents, Ricardian and non-Ricardian consumers (Galí et al., 2007). On the basis of this model,an analytical representation of social welfare function was derived to define socially optimal78Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).The model takes into account the decreasing with age labor productivity (Blanchard, 1985).9fiscal policy, namely an optimal combination of income tax and social contributions. Due tothe fact that this class of models does not allow the derivation of an analytical representationof steady-state, the model is calibrated using the parameter values applied in the literature onthe subject, and a comparison of equilibria for different characteristics of pension system ismade. Computation of the model is conducted in Matlab.Contribution•In Chapter 1 the approach for forecasting public spending in Russia was developed,taking into account the main economic characteristics and the nature of recent andplanned pension reforms.
The model takes account of the forecasted gender and agespecific structure of the Russian population, the growth rate of the economy, the level ofpension indexation, possible renewal of pension indexation for working retirees and anincrease in the retirement age.•In Chapter 2 the New-Keynesian model with non-Ricardian agents was extended foranalysis of an impact, not covered in the existing literature, of the share of nonRicardian agents on the value of fiscal multiplier. In this framework fiscal stimulusconsists of utility-enhancing and productive public spending. The positive effect ofhigher share of investment public spending in total expenditure and its productivityunder positive interest rate is confirmed, along with an opposite effect under the ZLB.The results can provide an explanation for the diverse empirical estimates of thegovernment expenditure multiplier, since both the structure of the governmentexpenditures and the heterogeneity of the population affect the value of fiscal multiplier.•An overlapping generation model with two types of agents (Ricardian and nonRicardian agents) and the unbalanced pension system was developed in Chapter 3.
Thedeficit of the pension fund is covered by the transfer from the public budget. In thissetting an impact of non-Ricardian consumers on the optimal choice of fiscalinstruments is shown, illustrating how the pension system can help to smoothconsumption of non-Ricardian agents.Main findings•On the basis of the developed framework for Russia the trajectories of publicexpenditure were estimated for pension indexation to the inflation rate and higher. Theestimations are made for low, median and high official demographic forecasts ofRosstat and two assumptions concerning the rate of economic growth. It was shown that10reforms with the cancellation of pension indexation for working retirees and an increaseof the retirement age of state employees will have a limited effect on the value ofpension expenditures.•It was shown that retention of the retirement age, along with pension indexation aimedat the maintenance of the replacement coefficient, will lead to an increase in publicspending on pensions by 2035, either with the current economic growth or with anacceleration of economic growth.
At the same time, an increase of the retirement agewould allow a significant reduction of public expenditure on provision of retirementpensions by 2035 in the considered demographic scenarios, even with the rate ofpension indexation aimed at the maintenance of the replacement coefficient at thecurrent level. Indexation by the inflation level (it is lower than the level needed tomaintain the replacement coefficient at its current level) will lead to an even higherdecrease in public spending on pensions.•On the basis of an extended New-Keynesian model of Eggertsson and Krugman (2012),an impact on the multiplier by the key economic characteristics of the model is derivedfor both types of interest rate regimes.
The change of this impact with the share of nonRicardian agents is also considered. It is shown that the value of the multiplier canbecome negative under ZLB for the sufficiently high share of non-Ricardian agents.•A non-linear effect of the share of non-Ricardian agents on the fiscal multiplier, takinginto account the structure of public spending, is revealed for the first time in theliterature. It is shown that a higher share of non-Ricardian agents can partly compensatefor a decrease in the fiscal multiplier with a rise in investment expenditures under ZLB.An account for two types of government expenditure intensifies a non-linear effect ofthe share of non-Ricardian agents on the fiscal multiplier under both positive interestrate and under ZLB constraint.•On the basis of this model it is confirmed that the pension system is redundant in theeconomy with only Ricardian agents.
When the level of pensions is fixed, optimal fiscalpolicy within unbalanced pension system consists of financing pension expenditure viataxes, with zero social contributions. An impact of population growth rate, retirementage and labor productivity on an optimal income tax is defined.•A complimentary nature of income tax and social contributions is shown within acomparison of balanced and unbalanced pension system when both fiscal instruments11exist. In the case of balanced pension system, optimal social contributions are positiveand are used to finance pension spending, while the optimal tax rate is constant anddoes not change with the growth rate of the population.
An unbalanced pension systemallows achievement of a higher level of social welfare and lower level of equilibriumpublic debt.•The optimal combination of fiscal instruments (income tax, social contributions and thelevel of public spending) is determined in the model with two types of agents, Ricardianand non-Ricardian.
After a certain threshold level of the share of non-Ricardianconsumers, non-zero social contributions are optimal with the lower level of incometax. This result remains the same when levels of social contributions differ for Ricardianand non-Ricardian agents: with an increase of the share of non-Ricardian agents theirsocial contributions become positive, with zero social contributions of Ricardian agents.The optimal choice of government expenditure is increasing with the share of nonRicardian consumers, compensating the decrease of their welfare at retirement.
Thechange of individual household profiles with an optimal fiscal policy for two types ofagents is shown, and a redistributional effect of the government policy via pensionsystem was revealed.12Approbation of the resultsThe results of the studies were presented at international conferences:•5th International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance, (Paris, 2018).Optimal fiscal policy and pension system design;•8th International Research Meeting in Business and Management (Nice, 2017), chair ofthe session “Debt, Tax and Pensions” and presenter, Optimal fiscal policy under theunbalanced pension system;•21st International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance(Crete, 2017), Fiscal policy under unbalanced pension system;•14th International Conference on Pensions, Insurance and Savings (Paris, 2016), Fiscalpolicy and the reform of the social security system;•19th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance,(Crete, 2015), Analysis of the government expenditure multiplier under zero lowerbound: the role of public investment.The results of the studies were also presented at national conferences:•XIX International scientific conference devoted to the questions of economic and socialdevelopment, (Moscow, 2018).
![](https://s.studizba.com/z.php?f=/templates/si/i/noavatar.png&w=100&h=100&t=1"){kind=avatar}
