071d-2-opreview (Разработка методов имитационного моделирования выборочных статистических процедур в аудите)

OT3bIBo$uqzanbHofo orrrloHeHTa Cro-f,Hoeofi Omrz BIa4zurrpoBHblH a AI4 c ceprallurc Jlorzu eur<oe a Ar eKcex B la4I4MI4p oBurra((P A 3 p AE O TKA ME T O AO B I,TML4TAUI4 OHHO f O M O AE nIIP OB AHrulB bIE OP gqHbIX C TATI4C TI4TIE C KI/D( IIP OtlE AyP B AyAI4TE ),npeAcraBneHHyro Ha cor4cKaHrre yueuofr crerreHr4 KaHArrAara gKoHoMr.IqecKI4xno cnerlr4aJrbHocrlr 08.00. 1 3 - MareMarI4rIecKI,Ie I4 I,IHcrpyMeHTaJIbHbIe,.ruynMero.lbl fKoHoMI{K}IAxmyuno Hocmb merwbt d uccep maquuMeroAaM aHarrpna gKoHoMr4rrecKr4x cr4creM lr'apfl4y c ApyruMI4[peAb.sBnflerefl rpe6onauue oKoHoMr4r'rHocrr4, T.e. r4arroJlb3oBaHprfl KaK Moxl{oMeHbrrrero oSrelra pecypcoB (nruucmareJrbHbrx, npeueuurx) Anfl nonyrleHl4-spe3ynbTara 3aAaHHoro KarrecrBa. 3ro cnpaBeAnr4Bo vr B orHoIrreHI4I4 MeroAoBay1vrra.

Ilpuir.leueHrae rrrSopovurrx erarvrcrzrqecKr4x. [poueAyp oAHo r4sHanpaeleuufi roBbIuIeHI,Iq 3KoHoMrrr{Hocrrr aylvrra. Cpe4z rpvl:e.VH,rpen_rrrcrByrolqlrx rxr4poKoMy pacnpocTpaHeHrrro TaKr4x nporleAyp, cJleAyerHa3'Barr orcyrcrBr4e oSocuoeaHHbrx peKoMeHAa\uit rro nrr6opy MeroAoB vxKrrpoBeAeHr4q B 3aBr4cr4Mocrl4 or Ilenefi ayrvra,) napaMerpoB oIIeHrrBaeMbIXreHepanbHbrx coBoKyilHocrefi u Spyrux Saxropon,Arr- nonyrreHr4-s no4o6urrx peKoMeHAauuit ueo6xo4zruo uccneAoBarwrenpoqecca ay4laTu B KoropoM npr4MeHrrora{ errSopouurre crarvcrvrLlecKrre.[porleAypbr. llp" oroM aHarrvrr4rrecKoe r4ccneAoBaHlre 3arpyAHeHo B avnyMHoroBaprraHTHocrr4 nporleAyp v ua6opon r4cxoAHbrx ycnoBrrfi.

B rarofi. cwryaryvruuelecoo6pa3Ho rrcnonb3oBaHvre MeroAoB r4Mr4Taur,roHHoro MoAenr4poBaHvrfl.CKasaHHoe o6ycnannr4Baer ueo6xo4r,rMocrb pa:paSorrz MeroAoBuMrrrarluoHHoro MoAenr{poBaHvrfl nrrSopovnux erarve"tvrqecKrzx npoueAyp Bay [Lrr e, qro iloATBepxAaeT aKTyaJIbHo cTb TeMbI AH c cepra\vvr.H ay anunBHo6us H& duccep maqu ur ar\uv n onyq eHbI cneAyrorJll,Ie HoBbre Hayr{Hbre p e3ynbrarbl.1. BrrnonHeHo KoMrrJreKcHoe zccJreAoBaHr4e MHolreerBa 3a4a'1 pe[IaeMbIXayArrropoM c rroMorrlbro eu6opounblx crarl{crzrrecKr4x npolleAyp.

BrraeJIeHbI TrrrIbI3a1ag., orrr4cbrBaeMbre MareMarr4r{ecKofi xapar<Tepr.rcrr4Kofi, nrruo.Iarcqefi [eper{eHl)oqeHr{BaeMbrx napaMeTpoB vr frrfroTe3br oTHocr4TeJrbHo 3aKoHa pacnpeAeJlelrl4.f,cly.rafiur,rx Berr4rruH. ilrr. 3a4.aq Kax<Aoro rrura [peAnoxeH ceofi BapvaHT4rac c ep[annrrfi uayvurrfi pe3ynbrar nocny]Kr{n ocuoeofi 4aruHefiureroperxeHus.r4ccJIeAoBaHWfl.,MareMarr4rrecK o fHO r4MeeT Vo annaparanpo IICaMOCTO-rITeJrbHOeeAyp ay Avrr a.3HaqeHUe Anfl pa3BLI',t[t{L2.Paspa6orau MeroA oI{eHKIr oxz4aenaofi ourraSr<u B reuepamuofrcoBoKytrHocrlr Lr pLrcKa nrrSopr<u Anfl HeoAHopoAHbrx euSopor.

Ouuqr4e AaHHoroMeroAa or cyrqecrByrollr4x B ToM, rrro oH [o3BoJr{er us6exarb arparr4$uxaryvrureHeparuuofi coBoKyrrHocrr4. B ooHoBe MeroAa - BbrAeJreHr4e AByx npr43HaKoBcryvafiuocrz oJreMeHToB reuepamuofi coBoKynHocrz, oAHoMy tr3 Koropbrx-coorBercByer fienpepbrBHafl crtyuafiwafl BervHVHa, ApyroMy Ar4cKperHas.. Taxofr.'froAXeA rro3BoJrrer nepefru4 B rlpoqecce orleHvrBaHnfl K rrcrroJrb3oBaHrrro r43BecrHbrx3Har{eHr4r,r 4r4crlepcvr4 cToHMocTrr 3JreMeHToB reHepanbHokr coBoKy[rHocTr4.3. PaspaSoran MeroA vMeroAr{Ka rrpoBeAeHkr-rr cepuit Bbrrrr4crr4TeJrbFrbrx,gKcnepI4MeHToB c IIeJIbro cpaBHI{TeJIrHoro aHaJrvr3a err6opovHbrx crarrrcrr4rrecKlrxnporleAyp. B ocHoee [peAno)KeHHoro MeroAa - r4Mr4Taqu{ ilpouecca npoBeAeHr4rrnrr6opovurtx erarLrcrvrqecKl4x nporleAyp ayAr4TopoM npr.r pa3nr4rrHbrx ycnoBr4{xIrpoBepKI4 v xapaKrepl4crl4Kax reuepamuofi coBoKynHocrr4.

llapavrerpu o6ezxfpyflnbl BbIIeneHbI aBTopoM Ha ocHoBaHr4r4 npeAbrnyqzx pe3ynbraToB,[onyr{eHHblx B xoAe r{ccneAoBaHr4s.. ,{nx ertnoJrHeHr4t orIeHoK I4ctIoJIb3oButvabp ac cMorpeHHbre n p a6 ore MeroAbr ar arvcrptrrecKo ro aHanr43a.4. llo I4TofaM aHalrvsa pe3ynbraroB Bbr-uucrrkrteJrbHbrx oKcneprzMeHToRnpeAnoxeHbl peKoMeH4arJr4tr no ert6opy crarr,rcrr4qecKrrx MeroAoB 14 napaMerpoB3TI{x MeroAoB Ans [poBeAeHI4t nrr6opovubrx crarr4crr4r{ecKux [poueAyp B ayAr4Te cyr{eroM pa3nurlHblx yclonzfr [poBepKr{ vnapaMerpoBreHepanbHbrx, Vr<asauuue peKoM oaqarryrvpaaruvpflror cyqecrByrorlr4 fi na6oppeKoMeHAat\uit orHoclrreJlbHo nu6opa raKr4x MeroAoB, npeAcraBJreHHbrx Bionorynuocrefir4crorlHrlKax rro paccMarprasaeNaofi TeMe.BecrnonyrIeHHbIX pe3ynbraroB IIo r4caJreAoBaHr4ro nrrSopo.rurtxQTaTVTCTLTqeCKZX npoueAyp B ayAI4Te COOTaBJTf,eT HayqHyro HOBr43Hy Ar4CCepTarJIdI/.flonyvenHble Hayr{Hble pe3yJlbrarbr 1,2 u 4 coorserorByror u.

i.1 <Pa:pa6orKa vpa3BI4TI4e MaTeMaTI4r{eCKOfO aililapryrA AHAIIV3A SKOHOMr4rreCKr4X Cr4CTeM:MareMarl4.recxofi oKoHoMI4KI4, gKoHoMerpkrKn, npzr<na4uofi crarve-tr4:r.kr) Teopr4r.rr4rp,KoMTIJIeKOorTTlzl.r'la3ar\krlr,Teopplu tpr4HflTr4fl, peureHwfi, AkrcKperHofi MareMarr4Klr vApyf I4x MeToAo B, I4C[Onb3yeMbIX B SKOHOMT4KO-MaTeMaTVTIeCKOM MoAenprp OBAIILTI.I>>,a pe3ynbrar 3 - n.2.I <<Pa^gslarue reopvru, MeroAonorzr4 vr npaKTr{KrrKOMIIbTOTepHO|O sKCnepI4MeHTa3aAarrax ynpaBneHr4r))BCOrlr4anbHo-sKOHOMr4qeCKr4X r4CCneAOBaHr4flX Uflacropra c[eqzanbHocrrr 08.00.13.OdocruoeaHHocmb u docmoeepHocmb pe3ynbmamooduccepmur4uuO6ocuonaHHocrb vr AocroBepHocrb nolyqeHHbrx B [kraceprar\krrrpe3ynbraros o6ecneqzBaercfl :- BcecropoHHI4M aHaJII43oM npeAMera zccneAoBaHvrr - nrr6opor{FrbrxQraTvrc"tvr{ecKprx nporleAyp B aynr4Te, BKJrroqarcqeM z3yr{eHHe cTaHAapT oB ay ALIT a14pe3ynbraroB HayqHbrx r4cQJreAoBaHr{fr B coepe ay[r4Ta 14 crarverkrKvrKoppeKTHbIM rIprrMeHeHI4eM MeroAoB cr{creMHoro aHaJrr{:a (o6o6qeHlre,rlaccvtSzxaqun), MareMarr4.recKofi erarLrctvK:a vrrMr4Tarlr4oHHofoMOAenr,rpoBaHr4fl;-AeTanbHbIM rInaHr{poBaHI{eM Bbrr{IIcJILITeJrbHbrx 3KCnepr'IMeHTOB 14n oBTop.f, enao cr6ro rtortyqeHHbrx pe3ynbraro B Ha cepr4-fl x oKcnepr4MeHToB ;LrcrIoiIb3oBaHuIeM AocroBepHbIX HcxoAHbrx AaHHbrx (4auurre Syxralrepcxoiiorueruocrz).Brreo4rr I{ peKoMeH4arlhu, noryireHHbre B Ar4cceprar\Lrr4, He nporr4Boperrar,o6rqeupu3HaHHbrM Hayr{HbrM pe3ynbraraM.3HaquJwocmb pnyJtbm&mor duccepma4uu dnn meopuu u npaKmuKuflpe4noNeHHa-s rurru3ar\vfl ayAr4TopcKr4x 3ap'a'u, peuaeMbrxcnoMor]lEronrr6opouHrrx crarnarulrecKrrx nporleAyp, prupaSorauHufi MeroA oueFrKHHeoAHopoAHbIX nrr6opor I4 peKoMeHl:ar\uu no nrr6opy crurvarr4qecKr4x MeroAoB,o6ecne.{zBaroql4x BblcoKyro HaAexHocrb pe3ynbraroB ay1vrra, BHoctr BKJTaA Bp a3B r4Tr4eMeTO,{OB aHaIIV3 A 3 K O H OMI4r{e C KI4X CI{ CTeM.MeroA krMurarJnoHHororpolleAyp3BMoAenr4poBaHtrfl nuSopouHrrx crarkrarLrqecKrrxay[r4Te cnoco6crByer pa3BrITI{ro MeroAonorr4r4 KoMnbrorepHoroKC[epr4MeHTa B 3 KOHOMT4T{eCKI4XVCCIeAOB AHVIflX.ZcnomsoBaHlre pe3ynbraroB Ar4aeeprarJzzr rro3Bonr4T ayAHTopaMocyqecrBn.srb ripocrofi n oSocuosaHHrrfr nuSop crarr4erprcrecKr4x MeroAoB An,InpoBeAeHzx err6opor{Hblx cra'rkraruqecKr4x nporleAyp.

r{ro B cBoro oqepeAb 6yAercnoco6crBoBarb paclrl4peHllrc IIpaKT]/^Kr4 npr4MeHeH]Z^fl TaKLrx nporleAyp B ayIr4Te,3aMequu ufl no d uccepmac+uu1.3aqeneHHafl KlracatrSzxaqux nrtSopouubrx crarr4crr4rrecKr4x nporleAyp,[pI4MeH{eMbIX B ay4uTe (n.l .6 Al4cceprarJm), rBJrrerc.f, He3aBeprxeHuofi.flpe4cranJleHbl rorlbKo rlprr3HaKr{ r<naccuQzKarlr4r4 (pruc. 1.1, crp,93) u gna rpr4Mepar4x B3auMocBtsert, TofAa KaK AnA qenefi npaKTr4r{ecKoro I4crroJrb3oBaHvtfl,, Rr'IacrHocrr4, 4.Itfl nocrpoeHvrfl nMVTaIII4oHHIIX uo4elefi, IIoJre3Ho Suno 5rr npnnecrzSopnranra3oBaHHoe oilI4caHI4e HeAonycrr{Mbrx Lr orpaHr4r{eHHo Aonycrr{Mbrxxou6uuaqrafi uprasuaKoB.2. Pa:pa6orasuufi MeroA oI{eHKr4 ox{r4AaeMofr ourz6Kr4 B rpnepanrnor.icoBoKynHocrl{ v pl4cKa nrrSopxlr (n.2.f Akrccepraquz) npeAronaraerHopManbHocrb paolpeAelrerrvfl cryvafrHux BeJrr4rrHH, coorBercrByrouuxtIpr43HaKaM 3JreMeHToB reHepanrnofr coBoKynHocrrz.

[nx cny.rasr HeoAHopoAHbrx nocyMMe reHepanbHblx coBoKyrlHocrefi ll,pvloflTvre raKoro AonyqeHrrs rpe6yeroreJrbHoro oSocgoBaHLrfl,.43.B 4acceprarJnr4 noA HaAelrHocrbro MeroAa noHr4Maerc-s ero roqHocrr,(ctp.106), TorAa KaK B o6rqenpzHrrbrx rpaKroBKax AaHHoe rroH{Tr4e BKJrroqaeracrIeKT, cB-q3aHHbtfr c ycrofiqraeocrrro. Taroe cyxeHr4e iloHfltvfl B TeKcre pa6orriHI4KaK He o6ocnonauo, llpone4euze BbrrrzcJrzreJrbHbrx 3Kcnepr4MeHToB errle HaoAHoM uaSope AaHHrIX, ornl4rlalorqeMofl or I,IcrloJrb3yeMofo crarvervqecKl4,IIO3BOJII4JIO 6:u rroBblcl4Tb AocroBepHocrb nonyr{eHHbrx pe3ynbraroB u'peKoMeH4aq.uir..i4.

' BreKcre$ opnrynapoBKax, HarrprzMepAr4aceprarJprv npr4oyrcrByer pflAHETOIIHOCTE14:T - npl4eMneuufi ypoBeHb orKJroHeHzfi e coeoKynHocrr4, Ha rofrcrpaHl4lle B ycnoBzrr 3a\arryr BcTpeqaercq repMrrH ypoBeHbHa crp. 30xecyqecrBeHHocrl4; BapI'IaHTH Haseauwir rroHrrr4f, Aon)KHbr AaBarbafl [pr4nepBoM ef o yrroMvrHaHkrr4;- crp.39BeJIHT{LIFIa},Ha3BaHa MareMarzr{ecKl4M ox{I4AaHI4eMvr raM xeCpeAHI4M qLICJIoM CIyrIaeB, B CTpOfOM CMbICJIe 3TO He OAHO I4 TOXe;-'B orrucaHvrkr<cxeiraoHa crp.110 cxeua Bbrr{I4cJrr4TeJlbHofo 3Kcilepr4MeHTa HtBBaHafr uMkrr arfproHuofr Mo,rIeJIZ)).flepevl{cJreHHbre 3aMgqaHnfl He cHl4xaror creileHb uay.ruofi HoBpr3Hbr vilp aKTur{ e cr<ofi 3Haqr4Mo crr4 ilonyqeHHbrx p e3ynbraroB.3urutruqeHue ocoomqemcmBuuduccepmilLquu KpumepunM,y cmaH o sneHH btM llonouceH ueM o nopad xe np ucy Jttden un y qeH bffi cmenerue ttco4epNauze ruaaeprar\krvr crpyKTypr4poBaHo vrr3noxeHorlrIocneAoBareJlbHocrlz, onpeAeneuuofi 83ar4MocB fl3l^l.rrpr 3a4'aq uccneAoB aHVfl.AeropeQepar xopotuo orpaxaer coAepxaHrze Azraaepraquu.

OcHoBHbre pe3ynbrarbrAl4cceprallI4rr cBoeBpeMeHHo ony6nuroBaHbl B perleH3r4pyeMbrx HayqHbrx xypHanax14 rlporrrnl4 aupo6aqzro Ha MexAyHapoAHbrx Hayr{Ho-npaKTr4r{ecxzx r<ou$epeHrlr4-flx.llo aKTyanbHocrrr, uayvHofr HoBz3He vr npaKTr4rlecrofi 3Harlr4Mocrr4lJl1.caeprarJnfl JlorznenKoBa A. B. npeAcraBJr-f,er co6ofi 3aKoHqeHHyro Hayr{HoxnanuSuralll4oHHylo pa6ory, B Koropofi peureua Hay.rt*afl sa4ra.ta r4ccnenoB aavrfl vIvMLrrarJLroHHoro MoAenupoBaHufl nlrSopouHrrx crurkrarkrrrecKr4x nporleAyp Baynvre. 3a[a'ra rrMeer cyulecrBeHHoe 3r{arreHr4e Anr pa3BLrrvrfl oSlacrvr zuauurt,cBs3aHHbIX C I4CIIOJIb3OBaHLIeM CTaTUCTVT{eCKr4X MeTOAOB Vr KOMrIbrOTepHbrX3KC[epkIMeHTOB Antr aHAnpr3a Qr4QTeM u npoqeccoB B SKoHoMr4Ke, qro coorBercrByerrpe6onauzrtr lloroxeHu.q o npucyxAeHqrtt yr{eHbrx crenenefi, yrBepxAeHHofofIocraHosJIeHIzeM llpanurerbarBa Pocczficr<ofi @e4epa\vtr or 24.09.2013 r., J\!B42B r{acrr4 pa3nena II, n.9.5I43JIo)I(eHHoro cqr{Taro, r{To JlorzueHr<oe AnexcefrBna4uuupoBurl 3acnyxl4Baer npl4cymAeHvrfl.